Integrated Research Projects

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  Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

  In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society.

  A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The line between reality and fiction blurs in the age of rapid technological evolution, urging governments, industries, and academia to unite in crafting ethical frameworks and regulations. As geopolitical tides shift, NATO stresses national responsibility in combating terrorism and advocating for collective strength against the looming specter of technology-driven threats. However, questions linger. Can regulatory frameworks keep pace with technological innovation? Will industry prioritize ethical considerations over profit margins?

  Contributors

  Darrin L. Frye, Sarah Lohmann, Paul J. Milas, Michael W. Parrott, Susan Sim, Steve S. Sin, Kristan J. Wheaton

  Chapter 1: ©2024 Susan Sim. All rights reserved.

  Chapter 2: ©2024 Sarah Lohmann. All rights reserved.

  Chapter 5: ©2024 Steve S. Sin. All rights reserved.

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  A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

  John A. Nagl and Katie Crombe

  John A. Nagl, Project Director
  Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff

  This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the roles of allies in deterrence and training as well as how leadership styles within the military—specifically, in the implementation of mission command—can be a decisive factor. As the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated, modern conflict touches a plethora of domains; thus, having sufficient personnel who are ready to fill a variety of capacities will be critical in the future. Finally, the war has shown history and justice are critical aspects of going to war and achieving peace, so crafting a narrative and satisfying stakeholders will be necessary for establishing a stable world order. The Russia-Ukraine War foreshadows the challenges the United States will face in future conflict and highlights the keys to adapting to modern warfare.

  Researchers: Gabriella N. Boyes, John “Jay” B. Bradley III, Larry D. Caswell Jr., Steven L. Chadwick, Jingyuan Chen, Jason Du, Brian A. Dukes, Volodymyr Grabchak, Matthew S. Holbrook, Clay M. Huffman, Rebecca W. Jensen, Jamon K. Junius, Thomas R. Kunish, Jason R. Lojka, Albert F. Lord Jr., Syeda Myra Naqvi, Dennis M. Sarmiento, Vincent R. Scauzzo, Povilas J. Strazdas, Marlon A. Thomas, Stephen K. Trynosky, Darrick L. Wesson, Sean M. Wiswesser

  Interns: Max Blumenfeld, Bridget Butler

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  The Future Role of Strategic Landpower

  Philip F. Baker, Gregory L. Cantwell, Timothy L. Clark, Gregory R. Foxx, Justin M. Magula, Curtis S. Perkins, Kirk A. Sanders, Timothy A. Sikorski, and Carl L. Zeppegno

  Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower. This publication serves as part of an enduring effort to evaluate strategic Landpower’s role, authorities, and resources for accomplishing the national strategic goals the Joint Force may face in the next conflict. This study considers multinational partners, allies, and senior leaders that can contribute to overcoming these enduring challenges. The insights derived from this study, which can be applied to both the European and Indo-Pacific theaters, should help leaders to consider these challenges, which may last a generation. Deterrence demands credible strategic response options integrated across warfighting functions. This valuable edition will continue the dialogue about addressing these issues as well as other emerging ones.

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  Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge

  C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, and Brett A. Carey

  Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy. Complicating matters is AI-driven systems can be a “black box” in that humans may not be able to explain some output, much less be held accountable for its consequences. This inability to explain coupled with the cession to a machine of some functions normally performed by humans risks the relinquishment of some jurisdiction and, consequently, autonomy to those outside the profession. Ceding jurisdiction could impact the American people’s trust in their military and, thus, its professional standing. To avoid these outcomes, creating and maintaining trust requires integrating knowledge of AI and data science into the military’s professional expertise. This knowledge covers both AI technology and how its use impacts command responsibility; talent management; governance; and the military’s relationship with the US government, the private sector, and society.

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  Contested Deployment

  Bert B. Tussing, John Eric Powell, and Benjamin C. Leitzel

  As indicated in the 2018 National Defense Strategy and evolving Multi-Domain Operations doctrine, the assumption the homeland will provide a secure space for mobilization and deployment is no longer valid. This integrated research project goes beyond affirming this assumption and contributes to efforts to mitigate the concerns a contested deployment entails.

  Following the introductory chapter, Chapter 2, “Army Deployments in a Contested Homeland: A Framework for Protection,” explores how current coordination and cooperation mechanisms between the DoD and state and local government may need realignment, with civil authorities preparing themselves to support military mobilization. Chapter 3, “Strategic Seaports and National Defense in a Contested Environment,” examines the 22 strategic seaports across the United States, identifying issues with throughput, structural integrity, security, readiness, funding, and authorities. Chapter 4, “Single Point of Failure,” identifies how strict adherence to a business efficiency model for munition production and distribution may jeopardize the successful employment of military forces. Chapter 5, “The Interstate Highway System: Reinvestment Needed before a Contested Deployment,” provides the status of the deteriorating road network and explains how associated vulnerabilities could be exploited by an adversary. The two appendices provide points for consideration on cyberattacks and defense and the impacts a full mobilization of reserve forces would have on the homeland.