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The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Authors

Jake Rinaldi

Abstract

This article argues that China’s intervention in a Korean conflict will hinge more on North Korea’s ability to hold territory than on bilateral ties. Rather than treat Chinese intervention as a yes-or-no proposition, this study models three scenarios—full intervention, sustained support, and limited support—based on North Korean resilience. Using Chinese-language sources and scenario-based analysis, it assesses how each model would shape key functional areas such as ISR, cyber, materiel, and force posture. The findings offer US defense planners a framework for anticipating variable People’s Liberation Army involvement in a future Korea contingency.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.55540/0031-1723.3343

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