Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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  Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twenty-First Century

  Antulio J. Echevarria II, Larry P. Goodson, and Brennan Deveraux

  The US government and the US Army are unprepared for a great-power war. This integrated research project (IRP), sponsored by Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General James J. Mingus, is a critical first step in helping senior US Army leaders increase their knowledge of, and preparations for, deterring or fighting a great-power war in the twenty-first century. No one knows how long the US government and the US Army have to prepare for a future conflict. Consequently, the US Department of Defense faces difficult decisions as it balances preparing for a future war with maintaining readiness to address current challenges. The student research in this IRP only scratches the surface of what the US Department of Defense and the US Army should do to understand, deter, and prepare more effectively for the possibility of a great-power war in the twenty-first century. While the steps outlined here are preliminary, they are not tentative. Readers will find that each chapter offers concrete, actionable recommendations based on duly considered analysis. But more work lies ahead.

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  More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific Requires Context

  Brennan Deveraux and Joshua Arostegui

  This monograph establishes a contextual baseline that serves as the framework for future comparisons of the US Army and the People’s Liberation Army Army. It examines differences in five key components of land warfare: the two nations’ landpower definitions, uses of land forces to build relationships, underlying warfare concepts, associated modernization efforts, and varying approaches to simulating land warfare in the region. In examining these components, the authors identify warfare intangibles that highlight analytical findings in a way that promotes future research. The existing scholarship comparing the two forces is often limited in scope, focusing on funding or comparing capabilities such as the number of specific weapons systems. This monograph differs from existing scholarship by providing a broad, in-depth comparison of critical landpower components. The analysis challenges long-held assumptions about US Army superiority and sets a foundation for future research. The authors rely heavily on primary sources and ample secondary documents translated directly from Chinese vernacular sources. This study’s conclusions challenge conventional thinking surrounding the People’s Liberation Army and will assist US military and policy practitioners in assessing the relative strengths and advantages the US military can grow or exploit.

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  Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence

  Antulio J. Echevarria II

  This monograph discusses how NATO might better leverage risk to strengthen the alliance’s extended deterrence. Such leverage would prove especially useful because Kyiv is unlikely to be permitted to join NATO and the United States may reduce its presence in Europe. Western analysts have not given Russian deterrence enough credit for the alliance’s deterrence failure on February 24, 2022. The alliance did not act fecklessly, nor did it self-deter. Rather, NATO’s deterrence measures were calibrated more for hybrid/gray-zone attacks of the sort it saw in 2014, not for the large-scale combat operations the alliance witnessed in 2022, which involved a nuclear-armed adversary with stronger interests in Ukraine than NATO had. To be sure, the alliance’s leaders acted responsibly in managing the risk of escalation. But in so doing, they also facilitated Russian deterrence efforts, which succeeded in keeping Washington and Brussels from intervening in the war. The alliance thus demonstrated its need for a strategy that would increase the risks and costs of war for Russia without unduly raising NATO’s. In short, the alliance needs a proxy strategy of “waging war without going to war,” whereby NATO can provide its full political, economic, and military support to Ukraine without running the risk of putting alliance troops in harm’s way.

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  Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies into Common Operating Picture and Course of Action Development

  C. Anthony Pfaff and Christopher John Hickey

  C. Anthony Pfaff and Christopher John Hickey, Principal Investigators

  ©2025 C. Anthony Pfaff. All rights reserved.

  Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies into Common Operating Picture and Course of Action Development explores the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to revolutionize military planning processes by enhancing situational awareness and expediting course of action development within the Joint planning process. The study delves into technical, organizational, and resource considerations that are critical for AI integration. In addition, the study highlights the importance of clean, structured data in training AI systems, addresses challenges in data collection across varying formats and classifications, and emphasizes the need for AI-friendly infrastructure. By automating processes like common operational picture generation and leveraging AI for course of action analysis, military planners can achieve greater efficiency and decision-making speed. Furthermore, this publication underscores the challenges of ethical implementation, resource sustainability, and organizational adaptation, including upskilling personnel and integrating commercial vendors. Case studies, such as the Maven Smart System and STORMBREAKER, demonstrate AI’s ability to enhance data fusion, improve battlefield awareness, and streamline operational planning. This research provides a robust framework for overcoming barriers to AI adoption, enabling the US military to harness AI technologies for enhanced planning, decision making, and operational success.

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  Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

  US Army War College

  Maintaining strategic advantage demands professional discourse from across the force. The Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of Defense’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 15 sections organized into four enduring themes. This survey of regional, domestic, and institutional challenges represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 100 command-sponsored questions from 43 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of Defense. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question list offer unique insights into the vital matters impacting defense organizations and provide aspiring researchers with a necessary starting point.

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  Cognitive Defense: 2024 Homeland Defense Symposium

  George M. Schwartz

  ©2025 Mark R. Landahl – Chapter 1

  ©2025 George M. Schwartz – Chapter 3

  The US Army War College hosted the inaugural annual Homeland Defense Symposium from February 6 to 8, 2024, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Reestablishing the Sanctuary,” featured plenary presentations on defending critical infrastructure, contested deployment, and cognitive defense by experts from military, academic, and government organizations.

  As highlighted in the conference theme, attendees recognized the homeland does not provide the sanctuary it once did, and our society is already under attack. Using disinformation and social media means, our adversaries are engaged in cognitive warfare in the homeland, seeking to shape the attitudes and behaviors of citizens by negatively influencing and disrupting their cognitive processes, thus weakening our society’s political will and degrading national resilience.

  Using contemporary examples to show how disinformation and malinformation undermine trust in government institutions, the authors of these conference papers provide insights and offer solutions for the cognitive defense of the homeland. These papers from the first Homeland Defense Symposium inform policymakers and practitioners on what to expect as we compete internationally and how to prepare for a possible large-scale conflict.

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  Thompson’s Rifle Battalion: The Original Unit of the Army of the United Colonies (Now the United States Regular Army)

  John A. Bonin

  ©2025 John A. Bonin

  Although 1775 is indisputably the birth year of the US Army, two events occurred on June 14 of that year to which the Army can credit its birthday. One is the adoption by the Continental Congress of the collective militia forces from several colonies outside Boston to form a Continental Army, of which Congress appointed George Washington the commander in chief on June 15, 1775. In addition, the US Regular Army officially dates its beginning to June 14, 1775, when the Second Continental Congress directed 10 companies of expert riflemen to be raised immediately in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia.

  William Thompson’s commission as the colonel of the Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion was dated June 25, 1775, and made him the first colonel of what would eventually become, through George Washington’s Continental Army, the US Regular Army. But William Thompson has not found a prominent place in the American pantheon of revolutionary heroes for a variety of reasons. In addition, Thompson’s Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion later became the 1st Continental Regiment and ended the American Revolution as the 1st Pennsylvania Regiment, but its lineage has not continued in the modern US Army.

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  Assessing the Zeitenwende: Implications for Germany, the United States, and Transatlantic Security

  John R. Deni, Marina E. Henke, Aylin Matlé, Sophia Besch, Tim Bosch, Loyle Campbell, Angela E. Stent, Jeffrey D. Rathke, Theresa Luetkefend, May-Britt U. Stumbaum, and Sharon de Cet John R. Deni and Jeffrey D. Rathke

  Chapter 1 - ©2025 John R. Deni. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 2 - ©2025 Marina E. Henke. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 3 - ©2025 John R. Deni. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 4 - ©2025 Aylin Matlé. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 5 - ©2025 Sophia Besch. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 6 - ©2025 Tim Bosch. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 7 - ©2025 Angela E. Stent. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 8 - ©2025 Jeffrey D. Rathke and Theresa Luetkefend. All rights reserved.
  Chapter 9 - ©2025 May-Britt U. Stumbaum and Sharon de Cet. All rights reserved.

  The essays in this volume analyze Germany’s Zeitenwende, a pivotal shift in security policy triggered by Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Key topics include national security strategy, defense policy, energy policy, industrial strategy, and international relations with Russia, China, the United States, NATO, and the EU. Regarding strategy, Germany’s approach lacks focus, offering broad goals without addressing trade-offs or specific threats. On defense policy, the Zeitenwende marked a renewed commitment to defense spending, bolstered by a €100 billion modernization fund. But delays in procurement, operational shortcomings, and an underfunded long-term defense budget hinder Germany. Similar challenges affect the defense industry, despite increased spending and exports. In energy policy, Germany rapidly diversified energy sources and expanded its liquefied natural gas infrastructure to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Still, achieving energy security, affordability, and sustainability remains complex. Internationally, Germany abandoned decades of Ostpolitik, prioritizing Ukraine over ties with Russia. Germany’s evolving China policy focuses on derisking and maintaining economic ties, raising questions about whether Berlin has reduced vulnerabilities. Though Washington supports Germany’s strategic shift, concerns remain about its sustainability, particularly in Germany’s NATO and EU commitments. Each chapter concludes by identifying the implications for the United States as well as the steps to overcome identified challenges.

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  Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere

  R. Evan Ellis

  ©2025 R. Evan Ellis

  Innovative new thinking on the security dimension of the challenges posed by the PRC’s engagement in Latin America and the DoD’s role in the whole-of-government US response is needed. This monograph highlights risks from PRC influence networks, digital architectures, and dual-use commercial facilities in the region, particularly at ports and in the space sector; shows how PRC economic engagement and other support sustains illiberal regimes, indirectly contributing to the risks these regimes pose by hosting criminal and terrorist groups and other US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and illustrates how commercial, people-to-people, and security engagements create options for the PRC to exploit against the United States in times of war.

  It advocates for new effects-based strategic concepts for how the DoD can strengthen cooperation with the region and limit PRC access through enhanced security cooperation and leveraging partners’ valuation of their relationships with the United States to influence their choices regarding cooperation with the PRC and gain better situational awareness for responding to China. Finally, it discusses how the United States should work with regional partners to plan for likely PRC actions in the region in times of war, leveraging the presence, relationships, and knowledge created through engagement.

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  Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine

  Ron Gurantz

  ©2024 Ron Gurantz

  The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts. This monograph presents an exhaustive study of the US military, diplomatic, and informational strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine and derives lessons about counterjustification that can be applied in future crises. The study should help military officers and government officials develop effective counterjustification tactics.

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  Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination

  C. Anthony Pfaff

  ©2024 C. Anthony Pfaff

  As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a practical approach where actors maximize the minimum they can achieve, provides a range of solutions. But taking only these factors into account is not likely to produce an enduring or more perfect peace. To get to a “good enough” state of peace, justice concerns—in this case framed by the just-war tradition—play a role. By impacting what counts as costs and benefits and placing boundaries on what actors should accept independently of those costs and benefits, the just-war tradition can help actors construct more durable settlements. The experiences in Ukraine and Gaza further illustrate gaps in the just-war tradition, which this book also addresses.

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  The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

  John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson

  ©2024 John R. Deni

  What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national security and fulfilling their NATO commitments. They also explore what the Russia-Ukraine War reveals about the role of European allies in future iterations of strategic competition. Their findings indicate European allies remain firmly in support of assisting Ukraine politically, even if the reasons for allied support vary across Europe. Despite agreeing support is necessary, European allies face several hurdles on the path toward scaling up military assistance to Ukraine. The reasons for the hurdles vary, and some exceptions exist, but Deni and Aronsson find without continued, sustained US engagement, leadership, and presence in Europe, Washington may find itself with few European allies by its side. To facilitate and sustain continued success in transatlantic burden sharing, the authors provide several practical recommendations for US policymakers to consider.

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  Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War

  Ron Gurantz

  Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory to the case of the Russia-Ukraine War, this monograph will help officials and strategists better understand the roles satellites are likely to play in future conflicts and the limits under which states will operate them as governments seek to gain military advantage and avoid escalation.

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  Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Army Commander for Admiral Chester W. Nimitz 1943–45

  James D. Scudieri

  This monograph analyzes Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.’s service as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945. It focuses on the theater-strategic level when Richardson led US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. This study highlights the context of Richardson’s operating environment beginning with prewar plans, the realities of early wartime defeats, and the state of joint operating procedures. It assesses Richardson’s accomplishments in exercising Landpower in the Pacific, across the entire range of today’s Army war-fighting and Joint functions and discusses the implications of posturing for large-scale combat operations in competition, crisis, and conflict. These assessments are relevant to US Army Pacific today in its four current roles of Theater Joint Force Land Component Command, Combined Joint Task Force, Combined Joint Force Land Component Command, and Army Service Component Command.

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  A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

  John A. Nagl and Katie Crombe

  John A. Nagl, Project Director
  Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff

  This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the roles of allies in deterrence and training as well as how leadership styles within the military—specifically, in the implementation of mission command—can be a decisive factor. As the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated, modern conflict touches a plethora of domains; thus, having sufficient personnel who are ready to fill a variety of capacities will be critical in the future. Finally, the war has shown history and justice are critical aspects of going to war and achieving peace, so crafting a narrative and satisfying stakeholders will be necessary for establishing a stable world order. The Russia-Ukraine War foreshadows the challenges the United States will face in future conflict and highlights the keys to adapting to modern warfare.

  Researchers: Gabriella N. Boyes, John “Jay” B. Bradley III, Larry D. Caswell Jr., Steven L. Chadwick, Jingyuan Chen, Jason Du, Brian A. Dukes, Volodymyr Grabchak, Matthew S. Holbrook, Clay M. Huffman, Rebecca W. Jensen, Jamon K. Junius, Thomas R. Kunish, Jason R. Lojka, Albert F. Lord Jr., Syeda Myra Naqvi, Dennis M. Sarmiento, Vincent R. Scauzzo, Povilas J. Strazdas, Marlon A. Thomas, Stephen K. Trynosky, Darrick L. Wesson, Sean M. Wiswesser

  Interns: Max Blumenfeld, Bridget Butler

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  Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

  Susan Sim, Eric Hartunian, and Paul J. Milas

  In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society.

  A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The line between reality and fiction blurs in the age of rapid technological evolution, urging governments, industries, and academia to unite in crafting ethical frameworks and regulations. As geopolitical tides shift, NATO stresses national responsibility in combating terrorism and advocating for collective strength against the looming specter of technology-driven threats. However, questions linger. Can regulatory frameworks keep pace with technological innovation? Will industry prioritize ethical considerations over profit margins?

  Contributors

  Darrin L. Frye, Sarah Lohmann, Paul J. Milas, Michael W. Parrott, Susan Sim, Steve S. Sin, Kristan J. Wheaton

  Chapter 1: ©2024 Susan Sim. All rights reserved.

  Chapter 2: ©2024 Sarah Lohmann. All rights reserved.

  Chapter 5: ©2024 Steve S. Sin. All rights reserved.

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  Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge – 2023 PLA Conference – Updated and Expanded

  George R. Shatzer, Joshua M. Arostegui

  The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations.

  The conference papers better defined the notion of the PLA as a pacing challenge as evidenced by PRC strategies and activities in various regions to build a much stronger appreciation of how PLA operations in these locations matter to each other and the whole of the PRC’s broader national strategy. The event also included presentations on Chinese military deterrence and potential justifications for a cross-Strait conflict following US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022.

  Specific topics included the PRC’s acceleration of military reforms and its extending reach; how the PRC can use various regional crises to justify military action against Taiwan; countering PRC military strength in Northeast Asia; and the PRC’s growing economic and security engagements with Latin America, Africa, South Asia, Russia, and Europe.

  Contributors

  Christopher K. Colley, Lisa Curtis, Travis Dolney, Connor Donahue, James E. Fanell, Šumit Ganguly, Ron Gurantz, Paul Nantulya, Elizabeth A. Wishnick

  Chapter 1 – ©2024 James E. Fanell. All rights reserved.

  Chapter 2 – ©2024 Lisa Curtis and Šumit Ganguly. All rights reserved.

  Chapter 3 – ©2024 Christopher K. Colley. All rights reserved.

  Chapter 5 – ©2024 Ron Gurantz. All rights reserved.

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  International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022

  Michael E. Lynch, Howard G. Coombs

  The 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in Ukraine. Over the past several years, the United States has acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region, and the Department of Defense and each of the US military services have published Arctic policies or strategies. In addition, the Department of Defense has created a new regional study center, the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies in Alaska. Canada and the other Arctic Council nations have also acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic region and revised strategic frameworks and changed institutional approaches to ensure Arctic security challenges arising from great-power competition and other threats, like those to the environment, are addressed. This volume captures these ideas for the United States and its allies so all can benefit from this experience.

  Contributors

  Janeen L. Birckhead, Andrea Charron, J.P. Clark, Joseph L. Corriveau, Michele Devlin, Wayne Eyre, Kathryn Bryk Friedman, James Fergusson, Wilfrid Greaves, Thomas Hughes, Ryan E. Jurkowski, Devin Kirkwood, Rauna J. Kuokkanen, Lori L. Leffler, W. Barrett Martin, James R. Morton Jr., Roch Pelletier, Camilla T. N. Sørensen, Wendy R. Tokach, Michael K. Tovo

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  Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait

  Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris

  The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.

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  The Future Role of Strategic Landpower

  Philip F. Baker, Gregory L. Cantwell, Timothy L. Clark, Gregory R. Foxx, Justin M. Magula, Curtis S. Perkins, Kirk A. Sanders, Timothy A. Sikorski, and Carl L. Zeppegno Dr. Gregory L. Cantwell and Major Justin M. Magula

  Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower. This publication serves as part of an enduring effort to evaluate strategic Landpower’s role, authorities, and resources for accomplishing the national strategic goals the Joint Force may face in the next conflict. This study considers multinational partners, allies, and senior leaders that can contribute to overcoming these enduring challenges. The insights derived from this study, which can be applied to both the European and Indo-Pacific theaters, should help leaders to consider these challenges, which may last a generation. Deterrence demands credible strategic response options integrated across warfighting functions. This valuable edition will continue the dialogue about addressing these issues as well as other emerging ones.

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  2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

  USAWC SSI

  The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.

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  Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising

  Mitchell G. Klingenberg

  ©2023 Mitchell G. Klingenberg

  Drawing from archival materials at the US Army Heritage and Education Center and the United States Military Academy at West Point, numerous published primary sources, and a range of secondary sources, this monograph offers an overview of the China Relief Expedition from June 1900 to the moment of liberation in August. Its considerations range from the geopolitical to the strategic and down to the tactical levels of war. US forces partnered alongside the combined naval and land forces of multiple nations, thus constituting the first contingency, expeditionary, and multinational coalition in American military history. In the face of numerous obstacles conditioned by enemy forces, the environment, and internal to the informal coalition itself, American forces succeeded in liberating their besieged legation. While the character of war has evolved since 1900, students of war should see through disparities that appear to separate the China Relief Expedition from the historical present.

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  China’s Future Military Capabilities

  Roger Cliff

  The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This monograph examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring. This monograph goes further by drawing on the Chinese military’s publications to identify and discuss the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army seeks to acquire in the future. The monograph finds China’s military is engaged in a comprehensive program to field a dominant array of military capabilities for ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace warfare. Countering these capabilities will require the United States and its allies to engage in an equally comprehensive effort. The monograph’s findings will enable US military planners and policy practitioners to understand the long-term goals of China’s development of military capabilities and to anticipate and counter China’s realization of new capabilities so the United States can maintain its military advantage over the long term.

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  Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge

  C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, and Brett A. Carey

  Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy. Complicating matters is AI-driven systems can be a “black box” in that humans may not be able to explain some output, much less be held accountable for its consequences. This inability to explain coupled with the cession to a machine of some functions normally performed by humans risks the relinquishment of some jurisdiction and, consequently, autonomy to those outside the profession. Ceding jurisdiction could impact the American people’s trust in their military and, thus, its professional standing. To avoid these outcomes, creating and maintaining trust requires integrating knowledge of AI and data science into the military’s professional expertise. This knowledge covers both AI technology and how its use impacts command responsibility; talent management; governance; and the military’s relationship with the US government, the private sector, and society.

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  PLA Logistics and Sustainment: PLA Conference 2022

  George R. Shatzer, Roger D. Cliff, Kenneth W. Allen, Joshua Arostegui, Justin Boggess, Travis Dolney, Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Lonnie D. Henley, Bonny Lin, Erin Richter, Benjamin Rosen, James R. (J. R.) Sessions, Eli Tirk, Joel Wuthnow, and Christopher D. Yung George R. Shatzer, Roger D. Cliff

  The US Army War College People’s Liberation Army Conference (PLA) Conference was held March 31 to April 2, 2022, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania.

  The conference focused on PLA logistics and sustainment. As the PLA continues to build and modernize its combat forces, it is important to examine if the capabilities meant to support combat operations are also being developed.

  Specific topics included: 1) China’s national-level logistics, including how China mobilizes national resources for the military and how it provides joint logistics support to the PLA Theater Commands; 2) the logistics capabilities of the different PLA services, especially the Army, Navy, and Air Forces; 3) PLA logistics in China’s remote regions, such as airpower projection in the Western Theater Command along the Indian border; and, 4) the PLA’s ability to sustain overseas operations at its base in Djibouti.

  Despite notable potential shortfalls and points of friction, the PLA has successfully sustained counterpiracy maritime operations for many years and conducted noncombatant evacuation operations well-distant from China. It is increasingly able to move forces across the vast distances of China and conduct large training exercises. Far more must be known about PLA sustainment and logistics before the hard questions about PLA operational reach and endurance can be answered.