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  Prospects for Iran's New Direction

  Keir Giles Mr.

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  This monograph, completed ahead of the November 2014 deadline, examines some of the underlying factors which will be constant in dealing with a nuclear capable Iran under President Hassan Rouhani, and which will help determine the success or failure of talks in 2015. It analyzes Rouhani's eventful first year in office in order to provide pointers to what may be possible—and to some key limiting factors—for Iran under his leadership. During that time, Rouhani has been forced to balance his own progressive instincts with the instinctual caution of more conservative elements of the Iranian ruling elite. As a result, foreign hopes for his influence on Iran’s place in the world have moved from initial optimism to a more sober assessment of the options available to him. This monograph provides an essential backdrop to the forthcoming renewed negotiations with Iran by providing an introduction to the complex interplay of issues and interests which constrain the Iranian leadership.

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  Senior Conference 50, The Army We Need: The Role of Landpower in an Uncertain Strategic Environment

  Charlie D. Lewis Major, Rachel M. Sondheimer Dr., and Jeffrey D. Peterson Colonel

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  The United States Military Academy (USMA) Senior Conference is run annually by the Department of Social Sciences at the USMA on behalf of the Superintendent. This event allows distinguished representatives from the private sector, government, academia, the think-tank community, and the joint military services to discuss important national security topics. Senior Conference 2014, the 50th iteration of this event, explored emerging trends and their implications for the Army’s strategic contribution to national security. As policymakers strive to rebalance U.S. national security investments in a fiscally constrained environment, debates about the future roles and missions of the armed services have intensified. Though many questions related to the future role of military power remain unsettled, the Army will undoubtedly have an important role to play.

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  Army Support of Military Cyberspace Operations: Joint Contexts and Global Escalation Implications

  Jeffrey L. Caton Mr.

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  Military cyberspace operations have evolved significantly over the past 2 decades and are now emerging into the realm of military operations in the traditional domains of land, sea, and air. The goal of this monograph is to provide senior policymakers, decisionmakers, military leaders, and their respective staffs with a better understanding of Army cyberspace operations within the context of overall U.S. military cyberspace operations. It examines the development of such operations in three major sections. First, it looks at the evolution of Department of Defense cyberspace operations over the past decade to include the founding of U.S. Cyber Command from its roots in various military units focused on defensive and offensive cyberspace operations. Second, it examines the evolution of the Army implementation of cyberspace operations toward the initial establishment of Army Cyber Command as well as recent efforts to establish Fort Gordon, Georgia as the center of gravity for Army cyberspace activities. Third, it explores the role of cyberspace operations in the escalation of international conflict, focusing on the sufficiency of the current cyberspace force structure to address an international environment of multiple actors interacting with varying degrees of tension.

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  Do Fewer Resources Mean Less Influence? A Comparative Historical Case Study of Military Influence in a Time of Austerity

  Mary Manjikian Dr.

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  As military conflicts come to an end, it is not uncommon for societies to expect a “peace dividend” and to engage in elite and popular conversations about how much defense spending is still needed. The issues are similar across countries and time periods: How can defense planners preserve capabilities, avoid the reversibility problem, and plan for the long term? How can they guide the development of technologies and doctrines in a climate of austerity? This manuscript draws lessons from previous historic situations and applies them to today.

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  Getting to the Left of SHARP: Lessons Learned from West Point's Efforts to Combat Sexual Harassment and Assault

  Robert L. Caslen Lieutenant General, Cindy R. Jebb Colonel, Hope C. Landsem Cadet, and Daniel Gade Lieutenant Colonel

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  On July 26, 1948, President Harry Truman signed Executive Order 9981, ending the practice of segregating the military services by race. That same year, the Army allowed women to join the services on an equal basis with men. Both of these steps preceded the larger societal changes that allowed fully equal treatment of all types of American citizens in military service. Just over 2 years ago, Congress repealed the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy, allowing for gays and lesbians to openly take their place in the military. Our procedures and policies for successful gender integration have grown and evolved. The authors share five principles for leaders and commanders on the prevention of sexual harassment and assault, as well as associated “Tips” for implementation: (1) Leaders identify and break chains of circumstance; (2) Education is preferable to litigation; (3) What’s electronic is public; (4) Don’t ignore pornography; and, (5) Unit climate is the commander’s responsibility. These principles and their associated tips are not panaceas, and these recommendations are submitted for discussion and feedback.

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  The Effective Use of Reserve Personnel in the U.S. Military: Lessons from the United Kingdom Reserve Model

  Shima D. Keene Dr.

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  This monograph identifies areas where the U.S. Army and other services can potentially benefit from examining the United Kingdom's comparable program of reserve reform. Key areas where aspects of this reform have been entirely counterproductive are identified, as well as specific and expensive recent British mistakes which it is essential for the U.S. military to avoid.

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  Operationalizing Counter Threat Finance Strategies

  Shima D. Keene Dr.

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  This Letort Paper describes effective Counter Threat Finance strategies as a specific area where the capability of U.S. and allied militaries can be augmented for the purpose of targeted action against adversaries. With appropriate analysis and exploitation, financial data can be used to reveal patterns of enemy behavior, motivations, and possible intentions as well as lifestyles and networks, all of which will impact directly upon military operations within a counterinsurgency environment. The targeting of the financial, and perhaps more importantly, the economic base of an organization, will not only impact the operational capability of that organization, but can ultimately lead to its destruction. To date, these strategies have been used predominantly for the purpose of disruption. However, the potential application of such strategies goes far beyond—they have the potential to be a multifaceted weapon, capable not only of disruption of the enemy, but of detecting impending instability. Specific recommendations are proposed for making best use of the potential for financial intelligence as part of an integrated strategy for both forecasting and countering contemporary security threats.

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  Regionalizing East Mediterranean Gas: Energy Security, Stability, and the U.S. Role

  Mohammed El-Katiri Dr. and Laura El-Katiri Ms.

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  The East Mediterranean has been witnessing an unparalleled natural resource boom since the late-2000s, when Israel, followed by Cyprus, made its first significant offshore hydrocarbon discoveries in many years. These discoveries have since proven to be substantially larger than any other resources previously explored in the East Mediterranean Sea. At the time of this writing, they consist primarily of natural gas, although liquids are expected to be discovered offshore as well, including in the potentially hydrocarbon-rich waters of Lebanon and Syria. A 2010 U.S. Geological Survey suggests the Levant basin—the area including Cyprus and Israel’s offshore zones, and the offshore and some onshore territories of Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories—could hold as much as 1.7 billion barrels of oil and up to 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, leaving as much as two-thirds of the region’s potential resource base still undiscovered.

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  Re-examining the Roles of Landpower in the 21st Century and Their Implications

  William T. Johnsen Dr.

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  After 13 years of prolonged ground combat, a weary American public is leery of further interventions requiring land forces. Shifting geostrategic conditions, such as a revanchist Russia and a rising China, reinforce this reluctance. At the same time, technological innovation once more offers the chimera of war from a distance that does not endanger land forces. Nonetheless, at some point, a highly volatile international security environment will place U.S. national interests at risk, requiring the use of military power. Given the increasing rise of interdependence among all components of military power (air, cyberspace, land, sea, and space), a better understanding of Landpower is essential if national leaders are to have a full range of policy options for protecting and promoting those interests. Landpower, “the ability—by threat, force, or occupation—to gain, sustain, exploit control over land, resources, and people,” stems from a country’s geostrategic conditions, economic power, population, form of government, and national will. The military elements of Landpower include a country’s ground forces, the institutions that generate and sustain those forces, and the human dimension—intelligent, highly adaptable, and innovative individuals—so vital to the successful employment of Landpower. Landpower offers policymakers tremendous utility in peace, crisis, or war, because Landpower can defeat, deter, compel, reassure, engage, and support the nation. Within each of these roles, as well as across them, Landpower can carry out the broadest range of military operations. This versatility across the spectrum of conflict offers national leaders the greatest number of effective policy options.

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  Central Asia's Shrinking Connectivity Gap: Implications for U.S. Strategy

  Roman Muzalevsky Mr.

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  The United States is witnessing a transformation of Central Asia—a critical yet highly understudied and misunderstood area of the world, which is seeing growing influence of China, India, and Russia. The agendas of these actors, as well as the United States, Japan, the EU, Turkey, and Iran, among others, have enabled Central and South Asian countries to shrink their connectivity gaps dramatically in the last 2 decades, aiding the U.S. grand strategy of advancing global connectivity. However, they could also potentially undermine a multidirectional connectivity and limit development choices for the Central Asian states, generating challenges and opportunities for the United States, whose global influence is receding. The U.S. future global and regional role and capabilities will depend on how well Washington adjusts its grand strategy in response to current and projected economic and geopolitical trends in the era of rising powers. As the United States calibrates its ends and means, its assessment of the importance of Central and South Asia for its strategy will in large part hinge on security trends unfolding in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Whether Central Asia will become a major pillar of the U.S. grand strategy, given the rise of China and India and the resurgence of Russia, remains unclear. But its goals of supporting sovereignty, democratization, and inter-regional links in Central and South Asia offer some hope that Washington will continue to support the region’s global connectivity, preferably by pursuing an engaged, long-term, and substantive regional strategy.

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  Creating an Effective Regional Alignment Strategy for the U.S. Army

  Raven Bukowski Major, John Childress Major, Michael J. Colarusso Dr., and David S. Lyle Colonel

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  As the war in Afghanistan draws to a close, the Army increasingly is focused upon “regionally aligning” its forces. To do so effectively, however, it must undertake several initiatives. First, the Army must acknowledge and liberate the unique productive capabilities (talents) of each individual. Second, it must shift from process-oriented, industrial age personnel management to productivity-focused, information age talent management. Third, the Army must foster enduring human relationships between its organizations and the governments, militaries, and populations to which they are regionally aligned. Hand in hand with this, it must redesign its Force Generation Model to create regional expertise at both individual and organizational levels. Finally, the Army must ensure that regional alignment does not degrade the worldwide “flex” capabilities of its forces.

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  The Role of Leadership in Transitional States: The Cases of Lebanon, Israel-Palestine

  Anastasia Filippidou Dr.

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  Leadership is dynamic; it is a continuous process and ever-changing relationship between numerous different factors. The research focuses on political leadership in transitional situations and the efforts of leadership in the transformation process from weak and fragmented states or communities to peaceful and viable states. These concepts are tested vis-à-vis U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East, which will have to be adaptive and flexible on the one hand in order to show ability and will; but will also have to be consistent on the other, so that it can show commitment and impartiality.

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  Tribal Militias: An Effective Tool to Counter Al-Qaida and Its Affiliates?

  Norman Cigar Dr.

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  Despite over a decade of open war, dealing with Al-Qaida and its affiliates in the Middle East is likely to remain a concern for the foreseeable future and will pose a challenge requiring the use of any tool that is likely to be effective in meeting the threat. Developing effective tools to counter Al-Qaida’s continuing presence in the social environment of tribal militias, therefore, is a priority and requires understanding Al-Qaida’s critical vulnerabilities when it operates in those societies and developing the means to counter Al-Qaida’s efforts. Recommendations for policy where the United States is a tribal militia’s direct patron, as well as recommendations for policy when the United States is in a supporting role to the local government are included.

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  Distinguishing Acts of War in Cyberspace: Assessment Criteria, Policy Considerations, and Response Implications

  Jeffrey L. Caton Mr.

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  Determining an act of war in the traditional domains of land, sea, and air often involves sophisticated interactions of many factors that may be outside the control of the parties involved. This monograph seeks to provide senior policymakers, decisionmakers, military leaders, and their respective staffs with essential background on this topic as well as introduce an analytical framework for them to utilize according to their needs. It develops this theme in four major sections. First, it presents the characterization of cyberspace to establish terms for broader dialogue as well as to identify unique technical challenges that the cyberspace domain may introduce into the process of distinguishing acts of war. Second, it explores assessment criteria involved with assaying cyber incidents to determine if they represent aggression and possible use of force; and if so, to what degree? Third, it looks at the policy considerations associated with applying such criteria by examining relevant U.S. strategies as well as the strategies of other key countries and international organizations, and considers how nonstate actors may affect U.S. deliberations. Fourth, it examines the influences that course of action development and implementation may have on the assessment of cyberspace incidents, such as reliable situational awareness, global and domestic environment considerations, and options and their related risks and potential consequences. It argues that the United States must also expect and accept that other nations may reasonably apply the criteria we develop to our own actions in cyberspace.

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  Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment

  Gregory Aftandilian Mr.

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  This monograph examines the Islamist-secularist divide in Arab countries, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, and why it has become so intense and polarizing. It demonstrates that having Islamist parties in power or in domineering positions in Arab societies often provokes a backlash from secular elements because the latter see the Islamists as threatening their social freedoms. For countries beginning the transitory process from authoritarianism to democracy, the monograph recommends that the United States press for a broad governing coalition and a delay in holding elections, which would allow secular-liberal forces the opportunity to build their political parties and compete with Islamist parties. For Arab countries already facing polarization, the United States should be consistent on human rights, help to build up institutions (such as parliaments) as a hedge against authoritarian presidents, and press for inclusionary politics. In addition, the monograph recommends that U.S. Army officers should reinforce to their Arab military counterparts the value and necessity of concentrating on genuine external and internal terrorist threats as opposed to being used as a coercive internal force that favors exclusionary politics.

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  United States-Gulf Cooperation Council Security Coopeeration in a Multipolar World

  Mohammed El-Katiri Dr.

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  Military and security cooperation with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is of continuing importance for the United States, given the region's pivotal location in the Middle East and proximity to Iran. But recent developments in the defense posture of the United States, together with the U.S. responses to the Arab Spring, and the lingering after-effects of the Iraq conflict, have caused local leaders to question the nature and durability of this cooperation. This monograph examines recent developments in the political and economic dynamics in GCC countries and their neighbors, and the potential implications for U.S. security interests in the region.

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  U.S. Policy and Strategy Toward Afghanistan after 2014

  Thomas H. Johnson Prof. and Larry P. Goodson Dr.

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  What should the United States do about Afghanistan? After nearly 13 years and substantial U.S. national commitment in a country on the other side of the world, much has changed in Afghanistan, the United States, Afghanistan’s region, and the globe. To prepare policy and strategy recommendations on Afghanistan for U.S. leaders, this monograph answers six key questions: 1. Did the United States have or develop critical national interests in Afghanistan and its immediate neighborhood on or because of the events of September 11, 2001? 2. Was overall U.S. strategy to pursue those interests successful and appropriate? 3. What outside conditions shaping U.S. involvement in Afghanistan exist now? 4. Do new vital and/or important national interests not met by our earlier strategies exist in this region? 5. What strategy(s) should the United States adopt or emphasize to achieve critical national interests in/around Afghanistan? 6. What risks and challenges are associated with new policies and/or strategies?

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  After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies

  Florence Gaub Dr.

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  As the Arab Spring has renewed Western interest in the political, as well as military, role of Arab armed forces, reform—rather than mere assistance—is crucial. In this monograph, the author focuses on the structural aspects of reform from which the Arab Spring forces would benefit. Seven features are identified which need to be addressed when attempting Arab military reform in the countries affected by large-scale unrest in 2011: an unclear mandate, over-politicization, a challenging ongoing security situation, limited resources, lack of civilian oversight, pockets of paramilitary activity, and, in parts, as well as the lack of an institutional perception of reform need. Their origins are elaborated as much as recommendations for what outside assistance can achieve.

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  A New Type of Great Power Relationship between the United States and China: The Military Dimension

  Geoffrey Till Professor

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  The relative economic and military rise of China is likely to lead a major shift in the world’s strategic architecture. The form that China's new role takes will have a decisive impact on the interests of the United States and its allies and partners in the region. For the outcome to be generally beneficial, China needs to be dissuaded from hegemonic aspirations and retained as a cooperative partner in the world system. President Xi Jinping's recent suggestion that a newly empowered China and the United States adopt a relationship that is new and different from previous relations between the great powers provides an ideal opportunity for the United States to consider its strategic options in the region. Given the importance of the issues at stake, and the difficulty of the task, all of the levers of American power, both “hard” and “soft” will need to be brought into play. Since the Asia-Pacific Region is primarily a maritime theater, a leading role wi1ll need to be played by the U.S. Navy, Marines, and Air Force. The U.S. Army will have a substantial supporting and facilitating role in shaping the new relationship with an emergent China.

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  Turkey's New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States

  Richard Weitz Dr.

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  Until a few years ago, the relationship between Washington and Ankara was perennially troubled and occasionally terrible. Turkey opposed the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and complained that the Pentagon was allowing Iraqi Kurds too much autonomy, leading to deteriorating security along the Iraq-Turkish border. Disagreements over how to respond to Iran’s nuclear program; U.S. suspicions regarding Turkey’s outreach efforts to Iran and Syria; and differences over Armenia, Palestinians, and the Black Sea further strained ties. However, Turkey is now seen as responding to its local challenges by moving closer to the West. The United States has called the U.S.-Turkish relationship a “model partnership” and Turkey “a critical ally.” For a partnership between Turkey and the United States to endure, Turkey must adopt more of a collective transatlantic perspective, crack down harder on terrorist activities, and resolve a domestic democratic deficit. At the same time, Europeans should show more flexibility meeting Turkey’s security concerns regarding the European Union, while the United States should adopt a more proactive policy toward resolving potential sources of tensions between Ankara and Washington that could worsen significantly at any time.

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  Russia and the Caspian Sea: Projecting Power or Competing for Influence?

  Tracey German Dr.

  This monograph examines Russia’s policy toward the Caspian Sea region as Moscow attempts to counterbalance growing American involvement within what it perceives to be its zone of privileged interest. It focuses on the recent expansion of the Caspian Flotilla and the rationale behind it. Moscow has sought to counterbalance the growing involvement of other actors in the region, which has led to rising tension between Russia and its southern neighbors. The primary objectives of the research are to examine Russian perceptions of threat and security in the Caspian region and assess the implications for other actors. This monograph analyzes the drivers of the increasing competition for influence, focusing on developments within the energy sector, and assesses the implications of Russia’s consolidation of its dominance for security and stability in the region. This issue is important because a clear understanding of Russian strategic thinking and threat perception in the Caspian Sea is vital in order to facilitate effective U.S. policy in the wider Caucasus and Central Asian region.

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  Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization

  Henry Plater-Zyberk Mr. and Andrew Monaghan Dr.

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  The role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in regional politics and the significance of the organization for U.S. interests are widely misunderstood. The organization is emphatically not a military bloc, and yet engages in joint activities which resemble military cooperation to U.S. eyes. It is, in theory, open to new members; but at present is highly unlikely to accept any. Its rhetoric firmly opposes U.S. presence and activity on the territory of member states, and yet individual member states leverage basing agreements with the U.S. to their advantage. The author reviews SCO's history and stated aspirations, and measures these against actual achievements. He concludes that, with the notable exception of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure(RATS), the great majority of SCO accomplishments are of little significance other than to provide an additional multinational vehicle through which China and in particular Russia can seek to counter U.S. and Western activity in Central Asia.

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  European Missile Defense and Russia

  Keir Giles Mr. and Andrew Monaghan Dr.

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  This monograph examines the history of missile defense and the current dialogue from a Russian perspective, in order to explain the root causes of Russian alarm. Specific recommendations for managing the Russia relationship in the context of missile defense are given. Important conclusions are also drawn for the purpose of managing the dialogue over missile defense plans not only with Russia as an opponent, but also with European NATO allies as partners and hosts. The latter are especially significant in the light of these partners' heightened hard security concerns following Russian annexation of Crimea and continuing hostile moves against Ukraine. This analysis was completed before the start of Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014, but already warned of the prospect of direct military action by Russia in Europe in order to protect Moscow's self-perceived interests.

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  Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond

  Mohammed El-Katiri Dr.

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  Regime change during the Arab Spring allowed Islamist political forces that had long been marginalized to achieve political influence in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Morocco’s first government led by an Islamist party has been in power since January 2012. This trend caused widespread concern over the future direction of these states; but despite the tragic example of Egypt, few negative predictions have yet been borne out. The author cautions against an overly simplistic assessment of this rise in the influence and power of political Islam. He shows that the political crises besetting each of these Islamist governments are not necessarily of their own making, but instead are determined by objective circumstances. Dr. El-Katiri describes how, in several key respects, the aims of Islamist parties are in line with U.S. aspirations for the region.

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  Russia's Contribution as a Partner in the War on Terrorism

  Henry Plater-Zyberk Mr.

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  This monograph examines terrorism and counterterrorism from the Russian perspective so as to assess prospects for cooperation with Russia in fighting terror. It concludes that, regardless of the state of political relations between Russia and the United States at any given time, longer-term systemic and conceptual obstacles to meaningful cooperation may well prevent any significant Russian contribution to U.S. counterterrorism efforts. This monograph details Russian definitions of terrorism and then looks at the Russian security “pyramid,” which sets out the relevant authority structure. It examines the roles of coordinating bodies such as the Security Council and the National Anti-Terrorist Committee, before looking at the individual organs involved in counterterrorism operations, particularly the Federal Security Service and Ministry of the Interior. The monograph then explores the most important question for Russia in terms of terrorism, the North Caucasus, and finally explores the wider context of the relationship between Russia and the West, particularly the United States, looking at the lengthy list of tensions affecting that relationship even before Russia's seizure of Crimea, which took place after the monograph was completed.