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Russian Security Strategy under Putin: U.S. and Russian Perspectives
R. Craig Nation Dr. and Dmitri Trenin Mr.
The authors illustrate the degree to which great power rivalry in Eurasia has become a major security issue and source of growing Russo-American tensions. Dr. R. Craig Nation lays out some of the fundamental macro-strategic issues of this rivalry and U.S. goals in Eurasia, as well as the consequences of Russian resistance to Western and American pressures. Mr. Dmitri Trenin emphasizes the growing intensity of Russian threat perceptions.
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The Eastern Dimension of America's New European Allies
Janusz Bugajski Mr.
Without a realistic prospect for NATO and EU accession, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and Georgia will become sources of domestic and regional instability and objects of Russia’s neo-imperialist ambitions that will undermine American and European strategic interests. The new members of NATO and the EU have sought to develop credible policies for consolidating democratic reforms among their eastern neighbors, enhancing their prospects for inclusion in NATO and the EU, and containing a resurgent and assertive Russia. The new European democracies have also endeavored to more closely involve Washington in the process of Euro-Atlantic enlargement as a more effective Eastern Dimension jointly pursued by the U.S., NATO, and the EU would significantly consolidate trans-Atlantic security.
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The United States and ASEAN-China Relations: All Quiet on the Southeast Asian Front
Ian Storey Dr.
While the overall security situation in Southeast Asia is something of a mixed bag, with grounds for both optimism and pessimism, one of the most encouraging trends in recent years has been the development of ASEAN’s relations with major external powers. Relations between China and ASEAN in particular have demonstrated a marked improvement over the past decade, thanks to a combination of burgeoning economic ties, perceptions of China as a more constructive and responsible player in regional politics, and Beijing’s "charm offensive" toward Southeast Asia. Overall, the development of ASEAN-China relations poses few security challenges to the United States today: good relations between China and ASEAN enhance regional stability, and a stable Southeast Asia is clearly in America’s interests, especially with Washington focused on events in the Middle East. However, although ASEAN-China relations are very positive, this does not necessarily mean the United States is losing influence in Southeast Asia, or that ASEAN members are "bandwagoning" with China--in fact, they are hedging by keeping America engaged and facilitating a continued U.S. military presence. While ASEAN-China relations are relatively benign today, in the future several sources of potential friction could create problems in Sino-U.S. relations: these are Taiwan, Burma, and the South China Sea dispute. This monograph examines each of these scenarios in turn.
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Transformation Under Fire: A Historical Case Study with Modern Parallels
Raymond A. Kimball Major
The Bolshevik leaders who built the Red Army from the shattered remnants of the Imperial Russian Army after World War I were far more innovative and pragmatic than usually believed. These men had a clear vision of what they needed from their armed forces and sustained that vision through years of sustained combat. Many of their efforts were squandered, however, when they attacked an enemy that was far different from the forces they had built their Army against. In the end, a force that had triumphed against incredible odds to dominate a substantial portion of the earth’s landmass was thrown back and humiliated by a second-rate power. This case study illuminates the dangers inherent in simultaneously conducting sustained combat operations and military transformation. Ominously, many of these same trends are currently manifesting themselves in American military transformation efforts.
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American Grand Strategy for Latin America in the Age of Resentment
Gabriel Marcella Dr.
A healthy Latin America is of critical value to the United States as a global power. It is besieged by a powerful force of resentment engendered by a combination of weak states, social exclusion, criminal violence, and corruption. In the context of attack by radical populism against democratic values, the United States needs a new grand strategy that addresses the causes rather than the symptoms of the malaise. The author argues that such a strategy must strengthen the effectiveness of the democratic state in providing security, justice, and governance, as well as effectively engender a linkage of the 40 percent of the population presently excluded from the social and economic benefits of democracy to the national and international economy. Unless current trends reverse, Latin American countries will be poor security partners and a continuing menace for international security. The author recommends imaginative courses of action for the grand strategy.
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ASEAN and Its Security Offspring: Facing New Challenges
Sheldon W. Simon Dr.
Southeast Asian states within ASEAN agree that security relations with the great powers are best achieved by enmeshing the latter in ASEAN procedures. The primary goal of ASEAN is that China, Japan, the United States, and India commit to maintaining Southeast Asia's autonomy, integrity, and prosperity. ASEAN is less successful in resolving conflicts internal to the region including human rights in Burma, transnational terrorism, environmental concerns, human trafficking, and illegal arms trade. Sovereignty protection frequently trumps cooperation on these issues.
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China's Expansion into and U.S. Withdrawal from Argentina's Telecommunications and Space Industries and the Implications for U.S. National Security
Janie Hulse Ms
Chinese involvement in the Latin American telecommunications and space industries has implications for U.S. national security. Unlike other commercial activities geared toward supplying raw materials to China’s 1.3 billion inhabitants, Chinese investment in space and telecommunications implies broader commercial and strategic interests that potentially put the Chinese into Western Hemisphere air and space. At present, Chinese activity in these industries is growing as U.S. engagement is diminishing. Globalization, advances in information technology, and China’s growing capacity and interest in Information Warfare make the United States particularly vulnerable should it abandon international telecommunications and space industries. In order to mitigate future threats, the United States should step up its commerce, aid. and diplomacy with Argentina and the region as a whole.
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Egypt: Security, Political, and Islamist Challenges
Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr.
This monograph approaches three issues in contemporary Egypt: failures of governance and political development, the continued strength of Islamism, and counterterrorism. The Egyptian government forged a truce with its most troublesome Islamist militants in 1999. However, violence emerged again from new sources of Islamist militancy from 2003 into 2006. All of the previously held conclusions about the role of state strength versus movements divisions that led to the truce are now void as “Al-Qa’idism” continues to plague Egypt. The even more pressing need for democratization has been setback by the security situation. Yet political pressures might threaten the country's stability more thoroughly, in the longer run, than the sporadic terrorist attacks. Widespread political discontent has been expressed for the last several years and, unless uneven economic conditions improve and greater consensus is achieved, Egypt could move in one of three different directions.
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Kuwaiti National Security and the U.S.-Kuwaiti Strategic Relationship after Saddam
W. Andrew Terrill Dr.
The U.S.-Kuwaiti military and political relationship has been of considerable value to both countries since at least 1990. This alliance was formed in the aftermath of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s brutal invasion of Kuwait and the U.S. decision to free Kuwait with military force in 1991. Saddam’s later defeat and removal from power in 2003 has ended an important rationale for the alliance, but a close look at current strategic realities in the Gulf suggests that Kuwait remains an important U.S. ally. It is also an ally that faces a number of serious national security concerns in the turbulent post-Saddam era. Problems with an assertive Iran, an unstable Iraq, and the continuing threat of terrorism will require both Kuwaitis and Americans to rethink and revise previous security approaches to meet the shared goals of reducing terrorism and regional instability.
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The Emerging Pattern of Geopolitics
Peter W. Rodman Dr.
Without ignoring the two wars that are currently taking place in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) sought to reframe the debate over security within a global context. Thus Mr. Rodman’s address sets contemporary security challenges to the United States within a framework of both an Islamist challenge rising from the Jihadi movement across the Muslim world that mostly finds its expression in terrorism and in the dynamics of the rise and decline of great powers.
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The Reserve Policies of Nations: A Comparative Analysis
Richard Weitz Dr.
Throughout the world, military reserves are changing. National governments are transforming the relationships between their active and reserve components, the allocation of roles and responsibilities among reserve forces, and the way they train, equip, and employ reservists. Nations no longer consider their reservists as primarily a strategic asset for mobilization during major wars. This increased reliance on reserve components presents national defense planners with many challenges. Recruiting and retaining reservists has become more difficult as many individuals have concluded they cannot meet the increased demands of reserve service. Reservists are increasingly deployed on foreign missions at a time when expectations regarding their contributions to the management of terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and other domestic emergencies are growing. Defense planners must also continue to refine the optimal distribution of skills and assets between regular and reserve forces. Finally, national governments must find the resources to sustain the increased use of reservists without bankrupting their defense budgets or undermining essential employer support for the concept of part-time soldiers with full-time civilian jobs. The author analyzes the innovative responses countries have adopted to manage these challenges.
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Turkmenistan and Central Asia after Niyazov
Stephen J. Blank Dr.
President Sapirmurat Niyazov, the all-powerful leader of Turkmenistan, suddenly died on December 21, 2006. Because Central Asia is a cockpit of great power rivalry and a potential theater in the Global War on Terrorism, no sooner had Niyazov died than the great powers were all in Turkmenistan seeking to influence its future policies away from the neutrality that had been Niyazov’s policy. Turkmenistan’s importance lies almost exclusively in its large natural gas holdings and proximity to the Caspian Sea and Iran. Because energy is regarded as a strategic asset as much if not more than as a mere lubricant or commodity, Russia, Iran, China, and the United States have all been visibly engaged in competition for influence there. The outcome of this competition and of the domestic struggle for power will have repercussions throughout Central Asia, if not beyond. The author shows the linkage between energy and security policies in Central Asia and in the policies of the major powers towards Central Asia. Beyond this analysis, he provides recommendations for U.S. policymakers as to how they should conduct themselves in this complex situation.
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An Introduction to Theater Strategy and Regional Security
Clarence J. Bouchat (USAF, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel
Theater strategy and theater security cooperation are two of the most important tools available in attaining national security. They offer an effective means for geographic Combatant Commanders to engage other countries, deter aggression, or resolve crises. However, there is little current, concise, and comprehensive guidance on how they are planned and implemented. This paper explains what theater strategy is, its basis, how it is formulated, and how it is executed with emphasis on theater security cooperation. The author illustrates the role in national affairs of theater strategy and security cooperation through examples from a case study leading up to and during Operation ENDURING FREEDOM in Afghanistan.
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Latin America's New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez
Max G. Manwaring Dr.
In 2005, Dr. Manwaring wrote a monograph entitled Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare. It came at a time when the United States and Venezuela were accelerating a verbal sparing match regarding which country was destabilizing Latin America more. President Chavez shows no sign of standing down; he slowly and deliberately centralizes his power in Venezuela, and carefully and adroitly articulates his Bolivarian dream (the idea of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. economic and political imperialism). Yet, most North Americans dismiss Chavez as a “nut case,” or—even if he is a threat to the security and stability of the Hemisphere—the possibilities of that threat coming to fruition are too far into the future to worry about. Dr. Manwaring’s intent is to explain in greater depth what President Chavez is doing and how he is doing it. First, he explains that Hugo Chavez’s threat is straightforward, and that it is being translated into a consistent, subtle, ambiguous, and ambitious struggle for power that is beginning to insinuate itself into political life in much of the Western Hemisphere. Second, he shows how President Chavez is encouraging his Venezuelan and other followers to pursue a confrontational, populist, and nationalistic agenda that will be achieved only by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state—and other Latin American states—to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by conducting an irregular Fourth-Generation War “Super Insurgency”; and, (3) country-by-country, building a great new Bolivarian state out of a phased Program for the Liberation of Latin America.
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Negotiation in the New Strategic Environment: Lessons from Iraq
David M. Tressler Mr.
In stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations like the U.S. mission in Iraq, negotiation is a common activity. The success or failure of the thousands of negotiations taking place daily between U.S. military officers and local civilian and military leaders in Iraq affects tactical and operational results and the U.S. military’s ability to achieve American strategic objectives. By training its leaders, especially junior ones, to negotiate effectively, the U.S. military will be better prepared to succeed in the increasingly complex operations it is conducting—in Iraq as well as the ones it will face in the new strategic environment of the 21st century. This monograph analyzes the U.S. Army’s current predeployment negotiation training and compares it with the negotiating experience of U.S. Army and Marine Corps officers deployed to Iraq. The author argues that successfully adapting to the nature of the contemporary operating environment requires changes that include increased training in negotiation. Based on interviews with U.S. officers, the author identifies three key elements of negotiation in SSTR operations and offers recommendations for U.S. soldiers to consider when negotiating with local Iraqi leaders; for U.S. military trainers to consider when reviewing their predeployment negotiation training curriculum; and for the Army and Marine Corps training and doctrine commands to consider when planning and structuring predeployment training.
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Right Sizing the People's Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China's Military
Andrew Scobell Dr. and Roy Kamphausen Mr.
This volume addresses how the leadership of China and the PLA view what size of PLA best meets China’s requirements. Among other things, this analytical process makes important new contributions on the question of PLA transparency, long an issue among PLA watchers. A great deal of emphasis has been put on understanding not only how, but also why a military modernizes itself. Some of the determining factors are national policies and strategy, doctrine, organizational structure, missions, and service cultures. While this list is not exhaustive, it does begin to paint a picture of just how broad and deep military interests run. It is important when we look at the structure and strategy for growth within the Chinese military that we see the world as China sees it. We need to see a world in which the “Taiwan issue” as well as that of North Korea and others are not viewed as short-term concerns, but fit into how China sees itself in a long-term leadership role in the region and in the world.
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Right Sizing the People's Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China's Military
Andrew Scobell Dr. and Roy Kamphausen Mr.
This volume addresses how the leadership of China and the PLA view what size of PLA best meets China’s requirements. Among other things, this analytical process makes important new contributions on the question of PLA transparency, long an issue among PLA watchers. A great deal of emphasis has been put on understanding not only how, but also why a military modernizes itself. Some of the determining factors are national policies and strategy, doctrine, organizational structure, missions, and service cultures. While this list is not exhaustive, it does begin to paint a picture of just how broad and deep military interests run. It is important when we look at the structure and strategy for growth within the Chinese military that we see the world as China sees it. We need to see a world in which the “Taiwan issue” as well as that of North Korea and others are not viewed as short-term concerns, but fit into how China sees itself in a long-term leadership role in the region and in the world.
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Security Requirements for Post-Transition Cuba
Alex Crowther Dr.
Change is inevitable in Cuba. Both Fidel Castro and his brother Raul are aging. Their passing will trigger either a succession or a transition. Eventually Cuba will change. With that change, the security requirements of Cuba will change as well. This monograph provides an analysis of security requirements that the new Cuba will face and makes proposals on what missions and structure the Cuban security forces might have after a transition. The overall long-range US goal is a stable, democratic Cuba which is integrated into the global market economy. The U.S. Government Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba says that if a Cuban government asks for assistance, the United States could be made available “in preparing the Cuban military forces to adjust to an appropriate role in a democracy.” This monograph proposes a way ahead in preparing Cuban forces for the future.
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The Implications of Preemptive and Preventive War Doctrines: A Reconsideration
Colin S. Gray Dr.
Preemption and prevention are different concepts. To preempt is to attempt to strike first against an enemy who is in the process of preparing, or is actually launching, an attack against you. Preemption is not controversial. The decision for war has been taken out of your hands. Prevention, however, is a decision to wage war, or conduct a strike, so as to prevent a far more dangerous context maturing in the future. To decide on preventive war is to elect to prevent a particular, very threatening strategic future from coming to pass. Despite much legal argument, there is no legal difficulty with either concept. The UN Charter, with its recognition of the inherent right of sovereign states to self-defense, as generally interpreted around the world does not require a victim or target state to suffer the first blow. To strike preventively in self-defense is legal, though it will usually be controversial. Preventive war is simply war, distinguishable only by its timing, and possibly its motivation.
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Political Trends in the New Eastern Europe: Ukraine and Belarus
Arkady Moshes Dr. and Vitali Silitski Dr.
This monograph contains two individual reports: Belarus and Russia: Comradeship-in-Arms in Preempting Democracy by Dr. Vitali Silitski and Ukraine: Domestic Changes and Foreign Policy Reconfiguration by Dr. Arkady Moshes. Belarus remains the last true dictatorship in Europe, and as such, its internal and external security agenda is an abiding matter of concern to the European and Western communities. But its trajectory is of equal concern to Moscow, which has been the prime external supporter and subsidizer of the Belarussian government under President Alyaksandr’ Lukashenka. But despite this support, tensions between Moscow and Minsk are growing. The brief energy cutoffs imposed by Moscow at the start of the year and Belarus’ retaliation shows that not all is well in that relationship. Not surprisingly, Lukashenka has now turned back to the West for foreign support, but it will not be forthcoming without significant domestic reform which is quite unlikely. Ukraine presents a different series of puzzles and challenges to Western leaders and audiences. It too has suffered from Russian energy coercion, but its political system is utterly different from Belarus and in a state of profound turmoil. Therefore, precise analysis of what has occurred and what is currently happening in Ukraine is essential to a correct understanding of trends there that can then inform sound policymaking.
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Rethinking Insurgency
Steven Metz Dr.
The U.S. military and national security community lost interest in insurgency after the end of the Cold War when other defense issues such as multinational peacekeeping and transformation seemed more pressing. With the onset of the Global War on Terror in 2001 and the ensuing involvement of the U.S. military in counterinsurgency support in Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgency experienced renewed concern in both the defense and intelligence communities. The author argues that while exceptionally important, this relearning process focused on Cold War era nationalistic insurgencies rather than the complex conflicts which characterized the post-Cold War security environment. To be successful at counterinsurgency, he contends, the U.S. military and defense community must rethink insurgency, which has profound implications for American strategy and military doctrine.
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China's Nuclear Forces: Operations, Training, Doctrine, Command, Control and Campaign Planning
Larry M. Wortzel Dr.
Recent books and journal articles published in China provide new insights into nuclear doctrine, operations, training, and the employment of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic rocket forces. The major insights come from exploiting sections of a doctrinal text published for PLA institutions of higher military education by the Chinese National Defense University, A Guide to the Study of Campaign Theory (Zhanyi Lilun Xuexi Zhinan). In the view of many in the PLA, the military power of the United States, the potential to use that power to coerce or dominate China, and the ability to threaten China’s pursuit of its own its interests, presents a latent threat to China. Additionally, China’s own threats against democratic Taiwan, and the fact that PLA leaders believe that the United States is likely to come to Taiwan’s assistance in the event of Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait, magnifies the threat that PLA officers perceive from the United States. This perceived threat drives the PLA to follow U.S. military developments more carefully than those of other nations and to be prepared to counter American forces. The PLA is mixing nuclear and conventional missile forces in its military doctrine. Also, some in China are questioning whether the doctrine of “no-first-use” of nuclear weapons serves China’s deterrent needs.
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Strategic Competition and Resistance in the 21st Century: Irregular, Catastrophic, Traditional, and Hybrid Challenges in Context
Nathan P. Freier Mr.
The 2005 National Defense Strategy introduced the now prolific concept of the four challenges--traditional, irregular, catastrophic, and disruptive. Reference to the challenges is now an essential feature of defense deliberations. Yet in spite of the concept’s central place in the defense debates in and out of government, there have been persistent gaps in how the individual challenges are defined and how they should be applied in defense and security policymaking. Written by one of two working-level strategists responsible for the 2005 defense strategy’s conceptual development, this monograph addresses that deficit. It provides the reader with the foundational substance underwriting the three most active challenges--irregular, catastrophic, and traditional--while introducing the concept of the “hybrid norm.”
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Ukraine's Military Between East and West
Marybeth Peterson Ulrich Professor
America’s new allies in Central and Eastern Europe have been struggling with defense reform since the end of the Cold War. Only recently since the Orange Revolution has Ukraine’s national political and military leadership seriously engaged the process of radical and comprehensive defense reform. This monograph applies the various roadmaps for reform developed in the post-communist states of Central European states to the emerging Ukrainian case. The author draws upon this mixed picture to suggest a framework focused on key areas in need of reform as well as key conditions that facilitate the achievement of reform objectives. The result is a richly developed monograph revealing Ukraine’s main strengths as well as obstacles limiting the improvement of its military capabilities. Ukraine’s interests in the East and West, along with the reality of its divided society, shape the outcomes to date and constrain the future of its Euro-Atlantic orientation.
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Biodefense Research Supporting the DoD: A New Strategic Vision
Coleen K. Martinez Colonel
The author examines the productivity of the Department of Defense’s biodefense research program over the course of more than 35 years, coupled with changes in the global research environment since the events of September 11, 2001. Where the deployment of a biologic agent of mass destruction is largely an unpredictable risk, the outcome certainly could be catastrophic for an unprotected population. An urgent moral imperative is cast upon the federal government, then, to objectively assess the application and management of its biodefense research resources.
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