Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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  Development and Reform of the Iraqi Police Forces

  C. Anthony Pfaff Dr.

  Despite 4 years of millions of dollars in aid, equipment, education, and advisors, Iraqi police force development lags far behind the military. Numerous reasons are offered to account for this gap: corrupt practices left over from the previous regime, infiltration by militias, weak leadership, competition by better armed and organized criminal and militant groups, and so on. However, the military is also subject to these same influences, thus none of these explanations by themselves or in combination are satisfactory. The author argues that the poor political and security environment impacts social, political, and cultural factors in ways that are predictable, understandable, and, with external help, resolvable. The author offers valuable insights into the creation of such programs as well as a number of policies and practices advisors may adopt to best facilitate the creation of a just and effective Iraqi police force.

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  Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability

  W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

  The United States and Jordan have maintained a valuable mutually-supportive relationship for decades as a result of shared interests in a moderate, prosperous, and stable Middle East. In this monograph, the author highlights Jordan’s ongoing value as a U.S. ally and considers ways that the U.S.-Jordanian alliance might be used to contain and minimize problems of concern to both countries. Although Jordan is not a large country, it is an important geographical crossroads within the Middle East and has been deeply involved in many of the most important events in the region’s modern history. In recent years, the importance of the U.S.-Jordanian relationship has increased, and Jordan has emerged as a vital U.S. ally in the efforts to stabilize Iraq and also resist violent extremism and terrorism throughout the region. Amman’s traditional role in helping to train friendly Arab military, police, and intelligence forces to its own high standards is a particularly helpful way in which Jordan can enhance efforts to achieve regional security. The United States needs to support efforts to continue and expand this role. Additionally, Jordan maintains a key interest in Palestinian/Israeli issues and has made ongoing efforts to play a constructive role in this setting. Helping Jordan survive, prosper, and modernize correspondingly has become an urgent priority for the United States in its quest for a secure Middle East.

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  Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War

  Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  This book, completed just before Pakistani President Musharraf imposed a state of emergency in November 2007, reflects research that the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center commissioned over the last 2 years. It tries to characterize specific nuclear problems that the ruling Pakistani government faces with the aim of establishing a base line set of challenges for remedial action. Its point of departure is to consider what nuclear challenges Pakistan will face if moderate forces remain in control of the government and no hot war breaks out against India.

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  Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War

  Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  This book, completed just before Pakistani President Musharraf imposed a state of emergency in November 2007, reflects research that the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center commissioned over the last 2 years. It tries to characterize specific nuclear problems that the ruling Pakistani government faces with the aim of establishing a base line set of challenges for remedial action. Its point of departure is to consider what nuclear challenges Pakistan will face if moderate forces remain in control of the government and no hot war breaks out against India.

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  Transforming to Effects-Based Operations: Lessons from the United Kingdom Experience

  Andrew M. Dorman Dr.

  The author examines the extent to which the United Kingdom (UK) has transitioned to effects-based operations to ascertain: (1) Areas where the U.S. Army could draw lessons from UK policies; (2) Areas where the U.S. Army and the British Ministry of Defence could develop integrated or complementary approaches and doctrines towards transformation for future alliance/coalition operations; and (3) Implications for the U.S. Army for working with the UK. This monograph is subdivided into four parts. Section 1 is a review of the evolution of British defence policy since the end of the Cold War and evaluates the degree to which it has adopted an effects based approach. Section 2 examines the British operational experience since the end of the Cold War including an analysis of the lessons learned and its experiences of working with allies. Section 3 analyses the UK’s capability development through its doctrine and acquisition strategies. Section 4 evaluates the implications of these findings for the U.S. Army and makes 17 main recommendations.

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  A Contemporary Challenge to State Sovereignty: Gangs and Other Illicit Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) in Central America, El Salvador, Mexico, Jamaica, and Brazil

  Max G. Manwaring Dr.

  Another kind of war within the context of a “clash of civilizations” is being waged in various parts of the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere around the world today. Some of the main protagonists are those who have come to be designated as first-second-, and third-generation street gangs, as well as their various possible allies such as traditional Transnational Criminal Organizations. In this new type of war, national security and sovereignty of affected countries is being impinged every day, and gangs’ illicit commercial motives are, in fact, becoming an ominous political agenda.

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  Sustaining the Peace After Civil War

  T. David Mason Dr.

  Since the end of World War II, there have been four times as many civil wars as interstate wars. For a small subset of nations civil war is a chronic condition: about half of the civil war nations have had at least two and as many as six conflicts. This book presents an analytical framework that has been used to identify a set of factors that make civil war more or less likely to recur in a nation where a civil war has recently terminated. The outcome of the previous civil war--whether it ended in a government victory, a rebel victory or a negotiated settlement--as well as the duration and deadliness of the conflict affect the durability of the peace after civil war. The introduction of peacekeeping forces, investment in economic development and reconstruction, and the establishment of democratic political institutions tailored to the configuration of ethnic and religious cleavages in the society also affect the durability of peace after civil war. The book closes by applying these propositions in an analysis of the civil war in Iraq: what can be done to bring the Iraq conflict to an earlier, less destructive, and more stable conclusion?

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  Sustaining the Peace After Civil War

  T. David Mason Dr.

  Since the end of World War II, there have been four times as many civil wars as interstate wars. For a small subset of nations civil war is a chronic condition: about half of the civil war nations have had at least two and as many as six conflicts. This book presents an analytical framework that has been used to identify a set of factors that make civil war more or less likely to recur in a nation where a civil war has recently terminated. The outcome of the previous civil war--whether it ended in a government victory, a rebel victory or a negotiated settlement--as well as the duration and deadliness of the conflict affect the durability of the peace after civil war. The introduction of peacekeeping forces, investment in economic development and reconstruction, and the establishment of democratic political institutions tailored to the configuration of ethnic and religious cleavages in the society also affect the durability of peace after civil war. The book closes by applying these propositions in an analysis of the civil war in Iraq: what can be done to bring the Iraq conflict to an earlier, less destructive, and more stable conclusion?

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  The Interagency and Counterinsurgency Warfare: Aligning and Integrating Military and Civilian Roles in Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations

  Joseph R. Cerami Dr. and Jay W. Boggs Mr.

  For decades since the formation of the defense establishment under the 1947 National Security Act, all U.S. cabinet departments, national security agencies, and military services involved in providing for the common defense have struggled to overcome differences in policy and strategy formulation, organizational cultures, and even basic terminology. Post-September 11, 2001, international systems, security environments, U.S. military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the greater Global War on Terrorism have confronted civilian policymakers and senior military officers with a complex, fluid battlefield which demands kinetic and counterinsurgency capabilities. This monograph addresses the security, stability, transition, and reconstruction missions that place the most pressure on interagency communication and coordination. The results from Kabul to Baghdad reveal that the interagency process is in need of reform and that a more robust effort to integrate and align civilian and military elements is a prerequisite for success.

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  The Interagency and Counterinsurgency Warfare: Aligning and Integrating Military and Civilian Roles in Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations

  Joseph R. Cerami Dr. and Jay W. Boggs Mr.

  For decades since the formation of the defense establishment under the 1947 National Security Act, all U.S. cabinet departments, national security agencies, and military services involved in providing for the common defense have struggled to overcome differences in policy and strategy formulation, organizational cultures, and even basic terminology. Post-September 11, 2001, international systems, security environments, U.S. military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the greater Global War on Terrorism have confronted civilian policymakers and senior military officers with a complex, fluid battlefield which demands kinetic and counterinsurgency capabilities. This monograph addresses the security, stability, transition, and reconstruction missions that place the most pressure on interagency communication and coordination. The results from Kabul to Baghdad reveal that the interagency process is in need of reform and that a more robust effort to integrate and align civilian and military elements is a prerequisite for success.

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  AFRICOM's Dilemma: The "Global War on Terrorism" "Capacity Building," Humanitarianism, and the Future of U.S. Security Policy in Africa

  Robert G. Berschinski Mr.

  Africa is a continent of growing economic, social, political, and geostrategic importance. The establishment of a new Combatant Command for Africa–AFRICOM–marks an important milestone in the evolution of relations between the United States and the governments of Africa. Through AFRICOM, the U.S. Department of Defense will consolidate the efforts of three existing command headquarters as it seeks a more stable environment for political and economic growth in Africa. In line with this goal, AFRICOM is pioneering a bold new method of military engagement focused on war prevention, interagency cooperation, and development rather than on traditional war fighting. The author contends that to achieve its goals vis-à-vis the African security landscape, AFRICOM must depart from the model of U.S. military operations on the continent since September 11, 2001. Using case studies from North and East Africa, the author argues that by amalgamating threats, overemphasizing “hard” counterterrorism initiatives, and intertwining military operations with humanitarianism, AFRICOM’s predecessors have harmed U.S. strategic interests. In line with this conclusion, he offers policy recommendations to maximize AFRICOM’s potential for future success.

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  East Asian Security: Two Views

  Gilbert Rozman Dr. and Chu Shulong Dr.

  A new framework for Northeast Asian security must cope with the legacy of six decades of frequent changes in the region’s great power relations. In order to realize the goals of the Joint Agreement in the Six-Party Talks, multilateralism is becoming more important. U.S. leadership faces challenges from: the Sino-U.S. rivalry that is better managed because of cooperation over North Korea; the Russo-U.S. rivalry that has intensified, although there is potential to stabilize it in this region; Sino-Russian partnership, which has drawn closer in response to the nuclear crisis but could be tested by progress that would reveal conflicting national interests; North Korean belligerence, which is unlikely to end even if the nuclear crisis is brought under control; South Korean balancing, which would remain even under a conservative president; and Sino-Japanese rivalry, which is somewhat under control in 2007 but remains the main barrier to regionalism. A U.S. regional strategy is needed that addresses all of these challenges in the context of the Six-Party Talks.

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  Force and Restraint in Strategic Deterrence: A Game-Theorist's Perspective

  Roger B. Myerson Dr.

  A great power’s use of its military forces may be rendered ineffective or even counterproductive when there are no clear internationally recognizable limits on this use of force. Professor Myerson derives this conclusion from the basic observation that our ability to influence potential rivals depends on a balanced mix of threats and promises. Potential adversaries should believe that aggression will be punished, but such threats will be useless unless they also believe our promises that good behavior will be better rewarded. A reputation for resolve makes threats credible, but a great power also needs a reputation for restraint, to make the promises credible as well. Thus, international restraints on a nation’s use of military force may actually increase the effective influence of its military strength.

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  On the Uses of Cultural Knowledge

  Sheila Miyoshi Jager Dr.

  The author explores the role that cultural knowledge must play in thinking about a new strategy for counterinsurgency. Although the importance of cultural awareness and understanding of adversary societies has been widely recognized as essential to operations and tactics on the battlefield, its significance has been largely ignored in formulating the broader strategic goals of counterinsurgency. The author highlights the importance of culture, and cultural awareness, in formulating a broad strategy for counterinsurgency which also has wide-ranging implication for U.S. foreign policy.

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  Regional Threats and Security Strategy: The Troubling Case of Today's Middle East

  James A. Russell Mr.

  The United States needs to undertake a strategic regional net assessment that examines the following issues as it seeks to construct a regional security strategy to protect its interests and mitigate wider threats to international security. That net assessment should include reviewing the role of security guarantees in promoting regional stability, an acknowledgement of the contradictory nature of the inter- and intra state threats and tensions, and the negative impact that the U.S. obsession with force protection is having on its ability to effectively implement strategy on the ground.

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  Russian Security Strategy under Putin: U.S. and Russian Perspectives

  R. Craig Nation Dr. and Dmitri Trenin Mr.

  The authors illustrate the degree to which great power rivalry in Eurasia has become a major security issue and source of growing Russo-American tensions. Dr. R. Craig Nation lays out some of the fundamental macro-strategic issues of this rivalry and U.S. goals in Eurasia, as well as the consequences of Russian resistance to Western and American pressures. Mr. Dmitri Trenin emphasizes the growing intensity of Russian threat perceptions.

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  The Eastern Dimension of America's New European Allies

  Janusz Bugajski Mr.

  Without a realistic prospect for NATO and EU accession, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and Georgia will become sources of domestic and regional instability and objects of Russia’s neo-imperialist ambitions that will undermine American and European strategic interests. The new members of NATO and the EU have sought to develop credible policies for consolidating democratic reforms among their eastern neighbors, enhancing their prospects for inclusion in NATO and the EU, and containing a resurgent and assertive Russia. The new European democracies have also endeavored to more closely involve Washington in the process of Euro-Atlantic enlargement as a more effective Eastern Dimension jointly pursued by the U.S., NATO, and the EU would significantly consolidate trans-Atlantic security.

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  The United States and ASEAN-China Relations: All Quiet on the Southeast Asian Front

  Ian Storey Dr.

  While the overall security situation in Southeast Asia is something of a mixed bag, with grounds for both optimism and pessimism, one of the most encouraging trends in recent years has been the development of ASEAN’s relations with major external powers. Relations between China and ASEAN in particular have demonstrated a marked improvement over the past decade, thanks to a combination of burgeoning economic ties, perceptions of China as a more constructive and responsible player in regional politics, and Beijing’s "charm offensive" toward Southeast Asia. Overall, the development of ASEAN-China relations poses few security challenges to the United States today: good relations between China and ASEAN enhance regional stability, and a stable Southeast Asia is clearly in America’s interests, especially with Washington focused on events in the Middle East. However, although ASEAN-China relations are very positive, this does not necessarily mean the United States is losing influence in Southeast Asia, or that ASEAN members are "bandwagoning" with China--in fact, they are hedging by keeping America engaged and facilitating a continued U.S. military presence. While ASEAN-China relations are relatively benign today, in the future several sources of potential friction could create problems in Sino-U.S. relations: these are Taiwan, Burma, and the South China Sea dispute. This monograph examines each of these scenarios in turn.

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  Transformation Under Fire: A Historical Case Study with Modern Parallels

  Raymond A. Kimball Major

  The Bolshevik leaders who built the Red Army from the shattered remnants of the Imperial Russian Army after World War I were far more innovative and pragmatic than usually believed. These men had a clear vision of what they needed from their armed forces and sustained that vision through years of sustained combat. Many of their efforts were squandered, however, when they attacked an enemy that was far different from the forces they had built their Army against. In the end, a force that had triumphed against incredible odds to dominate a substantial portion of the earth’s landmass was thrown back and humiliated by a second-rate power. This case study illuminates the dangers inherent in simultaneously conducting sustained combat operations and military transformation. Ominously, many of these same trends are currently manifesting themselves in American military transformation efforts.

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  American Grand Strategy for Latin America in the Age of Resentment

  Gabriel Marcella Dr.

  A healthy Latin America is of critical value to the United States as a global power. It is besieged by a powerful force of resentment engendered by a combination of weak states, social exclusion, criminal violence, and corruption. In the context of attack by radical populism against democratic values, the United States needs a new grand strategy that addresses the causes rather than the symptoms of the malaise. The author argues that such a strategy must strengthen the effectiveness of the democratic state in providing security, justice, and governance, as well as effectively engender a linkage of the 40 percent of the population presently excluded from the social and economic benefits of democracy to the national and international economy. Unless current trends reverse, Latin American countries will be poor security partners and a continuing menace for international security. The author recommends imaginative courses of action for the grand strategy.

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  ASEAN and Its Security Offspring: Facing New Challenges

  Sheldon W. Simon Dr.

  Southeast Asian states within ASEAN agree that security relations with the great powers are best achieved by enmeshing the latter in ASEAN procedures. The primary goal of ASEAN is that China, Japan, the United States, and India commit to maintaining Southeast Asia's autonomy, integrity, and prosperity. ASEAN is less successful in resolving conflicts internal to the region including human rights in Burma, transnational terrorism, environmental concerns, human trafficking, and illegal arms trade. Sovereignty protection frequently trumps cooperation on these issues.

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  China's Expansion into and U.S. Withdrawal from Argentina's Telecommunications and Space Industries and the Implications for U.S. National Security

  Janie Hulse Ms

  Chinese involvement in the Latin American telecommunications and space industries has implications for U.S. national security. Unlike other commercial activities geared toward supplying raw materials to China’s 1.3 billion inhabitants, Chinese investment in space and telecommunications implies broader commercial and strategic interests that potentially put the Chinese into Western Hemisphere air and space. At present, Chinese activity in these industries is growing as U.S. engagement is diminishing. Globalization, advances in information technology, and China’s growing capacity and interest in Information Warfare make the United States particularly vulnerable should it abandon international telecommunications and space industries. In order to mitigate future threats, the United States should step up its commerce, aid. and diplomacy with Argentina and the region as a whole.

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  Egypt: Security, Political, and Islamist Challenges

  Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr.

  This monograph approaches three issues in contemporary Egypt: failures of governance and political development, the continued strength of Islamism, and counterterrorism. The Egyptian government forged a truce with its most troublesome Islamist militants in 1999. However, violence emerged again from new sources of Islamist militancy from 2003 into 2006. All of the previously held conclusions about the role of state strength versus movements divisions that led to the truce are now void as “Al-Qa’idism” continues to plague Egypt. The even more pressing need for democratization has been setback by the security situation. Yet political pressures might threaten the country's stability more thoroughly, in the longer run, than the sporadic terrorist attacks. Widespread political discontent has been expressed for the last several years and, unless uneven economic conditions improve and greater consensus is achieved, Egypt could move in one of three different directions.

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  Kuwaiti National Security and the U.S.-Kuwaiti Strategic Relationship after Saddam

  W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

  The U.S.-Kuwaiti military and political relationship has been of considerable value to both countries since at least 1990. This alliance was formed in the aftermath of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s brutal invasion of Kuwait and the U.S. decision to free Kuwait with military force in 1991. Saddam’s later defeat and removal from power in 2003 has ended an important rationale for the alliance, but a close look at current strategic realities in the Gulf suggests that Kuwait remains an important U.S. ally. It is also an ally that faces a number of serious national security concerns in the turbulent post-Saddam era. Problems with an assertive Iran, an unstable Iraq, and the continuing threat of terrorism will require both Kuwaitis and Americans to rethink and revise previous security approaches to meet the shared goals of reducing terrorism and regional instability.

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  The Emerging Pattern of Geopolitics

  Peter W. Rodman Dr.

  Without ignoring the two wars that are currently taking place in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) sought to reframe the debate over security within a global context. Thus Mr. Rodman’s address sets contemporary security challenges to the United States within a framework of both an Islamist challenge rising from the Jihadi movement across the Muslim world that mostly finds its expression in terrorism and in the dynamics of the rise and decline of great powers.