Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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  China-Russia Security Relations: Strategic Parallelism without Partnership or Passion?

  Richard Weitz Dr.

  This report argues that, although Chinese-Russian relations have improved along several important dimensions, security cooperation between Beijing and Moscow has remained limited, episodic, and tenuous. The two governments support each other on select issues but differ on others. Since these interests conflict as well as coincide, the relationship is not necessarily moving in an anti-American direction. Although no action undertaken by these two great powers is insignificant and Washington must continue to monitor carefully developments in Beijing and Moscow, thus far their fitfully improving ties have not presented a major security challenge to the United States or its allies. Nevertheless, the radical changes in great power relations during the past century—-which also witnessed major transformations in ties between Beijing and Moscow, from allies in the 1950s to armed adversaries in the 1960s—-behooves U.S. Army and other national security planners to anticipate the potential for major discontinuities in Sino-Russian relations. Above all, American officials need to pursue a mixture of “shaping and hedging” policies that aim to avert a hostile Chinese-Russian alignment while concurrently preparing the United States to better counter such a development should it nevertheless arise despite American efforts.

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  From the New Middle Ages to a New Dark Age: The Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy

  Phil Williams Dr.

  Security and stability in the 21st century have little to do with traditional power politics, military conflict between states, and issues of grand strategy. Instead they revolve around the disruptive consequences of globalization, declining governance, inequality, urbanization, and nonstate violent actors. The author explores the implications of these issues for the United States. He proposes a rejection of “stateocentric” assumptions and an embrace of the notion of the New Middle Ages characterized, among other things, by competing structures, fragmented authority, and the rise of “no-go” zones. He also suggests that the world could tip into a New Dark Age. He identifies three major options for the United States in responding to such a development. The author argues that for interventions to have any chance of success the United States will have to move to a trans-agency approach. But even this might not be sufficient to stanch the chaos and prevent the continuing decline of the Westphalian state.

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  U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues, Vol. II: National Security Policy and Strategy, 3rd Edition

  J. Boone Bartholomees Dr.

  Hardcopies are only available to active duty members of the Department of Defense. Volume II of this edition of the U.S. Army War College Guide (USAWC) to National Security Issues corresponds roughly to one of the two core courses that the Department of National Security and Strategy (DNSS) teaches: “Theory of War and Strategy” and “National Security Policy and Strategy.” Like its predecessors, the complete edition is largely an expansion of the existing materials, although over 40 percent is new, and the previously published chapters have been updated as necessary.

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  U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues, Vol. II: National Security Policy and Strategy, 3rd Edition

  J. Boone Bartholomees Dr.

  Hardcopies are only available to active duty members of the Department of Defense. Volume II of this edition of the U.S. Army War College Guide (USAWC) to National Security Issues corresponds roughly to one of the two core courses that the Department of National Security and Strategy (DNSS) teaches: “Theory of War and Strategy” and “National Security Policy and Strategy.” Like its predecessors, the complete edition is largely an expansion of the existing materials, although over 40 percent is new, and the previously published chapters have been updated as necessary.

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  Wars of Ideas and the War of Ideas

  Antulio J. Echevarria II Dr.

  The author discusses several types of wars of ideas in an effort to achieve a better understanding of what wars of ideas are. That knowledge, in turn, can help inform strategy. It is important to note, for instance, that because ideas are interpreted subjectively, it is not likely that opposing parties will “win” each other over by means of an ideational campaign alone. Hence, physical events, whether intended or incidental, typically play determining roles in the ways wars of ideas unfold, and how (or whether) they are end. Thus, while the act of communicating strategically remains a vital part of any war of ideas, we need to manage our expectations as far as what it can accomplish.

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  U.S. Foreign Policy and Regime Instability

  James Meernik Dr.

  The United States utilizes a vast arsenal of foreign policy tools to induce, compel, and deter changes in other nations’ foreign policies. Traditionally, U.S. foreign policy research focuses on the degree of success the U.S. Government has achieved when seeking specific objectives such as improvements in human rights conditions, democratic change, trade policies, and a host of other goals. In this Letort Paper, the author analyzes the extent to which intrastate and interstate conflict and terrorism in other nations are influenced by the depth and breadth of their military and foreign policy relationships with the United States. More specifically, he empirically analyzes the degree to which U.S. military and foreign policies such as the stationing of U.S. military personnel; the use of military force; the provision of foreign assistance, as well as a more general similarity of foreign policy interests between the United States and a foreign regime are statistically related to interstate and intrastate conflict and terrorist activity. The paper will better enable policymakers to identify which nations are most likely to become potential threats to American interests, and determine which mix of policy options works best in preventing the outbreak of terrorism and conflict within and among nations.

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  Baloch Nationalism and the Geopolitics of Energy Resources: The Changing Context of Separatism in Pakistan

  Robert J. Wirsing Dr.

  The author examines the energy context of the simmering Baloch separatist insurgency that has surfaced in recent years in Pakistan’s sprawling Balochistan province. In particular, he looks at how Pakistan’s mounting energy insecurity--a product of rapid increase in demand coupled with rising scarcity and the region’s intensified energy rivalry--has both magnified the economic and strategic importance of this province while at the same time complicating Pakistan’s efforts to cope with the province’s resurgent tribal separatism. The author concludes that Pakistan’s government needs to overhaul its counterinsurgent policies to avoid protracted conflict and to enlist the Baloch as partners in energy development, not antagonists of it.

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  Global Climate Change National Security Implications

  Carolyn Pumphrey Dr.

  On March 29-31, 2007, the Strategic Studies Institute and the Triangle Institute for Security Studies conducted a colloquium on “Global Climate Change: National Security Implications” held in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This volume is based on the proceedings of this conference. Chapter 1 addresses the growing historical awareness of the threat and outlines the science of climate-change. Chapters 2 and 3 focus on how climate change might affect human societies and the degree to which it might cause or exacerbate violence and conflict. Particular attention is paid to the implications for the security of the United States. Chapters 4 and 5 consider a variety of potential solutions, ranging from international diplomacy to the development of efficient technologies. Chapters 6 and 7 focus on the role of the U.S. Armed Forces. What can they do and what should they do to mitigate climate change or prepare to meet the threat? Chapter 8 summarizes and concludes. Contributors to this volume agree that climate change is a threat deserving of serious attention. They stress the need for greater planning and coordination and for further research as well as the utility of engagement—military to military and state to state—on environmental issues. They differ as to whether the Armed Forces should play a leading or supporting role, but agree that they can—and already do—make a valuable contribution.

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  Global Climate Change National Security Implications

  Carolyn Pumphrey Dr.

  On March 29-31, 2007, the Strategic Studies Institute and the Triangle Institute for Security Studies conducted a colloquium on “Global Climate Change: National Security Implications” held in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This volume is based on the proceedings of this conference. Chapter 1 addresses the growing historical awareness of the threat and outlines the science of climate-change. Chapters 2 and 3 focus on how climate change might affect human societies and the degree to which it might cause or exacerbate violence and conflict. Particular attention is paid to the implications for the security of the United States. Chapters 4 and 5 consider a variety of potential solutions, ranging from international diplomacy to the development of efficient technologies. Chapters 6 and 7 focus on the role of the U.S. Armed Forces. What can they do and what should they do to mitigate climate change or prepare to meet the threat? Chapter 8 summarizes and concludes. Contributors to this volume agree that climate change is a threat deserving of serious attention. They stress the need for greater planning and coordination and for further research as well as the utility of engagement—military to military and state to state—on environmental issues. They differ as to whether the Armed Forces should play a leading or supporting role, but agree that they can—and already do—make a valuable contribution.

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  Precision in the Global War on Terror: Inciting Muslims through the War of Ideas

  Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr.

  Never before have Americans paid so much attention to Islam and Muslim ideology. Although efforts have been made to separate mainsteam views from extremist principles, Muslims feel that many of their basic beliefs are under attack in the ongoing war of ideas. The author explores why, surveying a broad swath of accusations and efforts to change Muslim and Islamist ideas and institutions.

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  Precision in the Global War on Terror: Inciting Muslims through the War of Ideas

  Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr.

  Never before have Americans paid so much attention to Islam and Muslim ideology. Although efforts have been made to separate mainsteam views from extremist principles, Muslims feel that many of their basic beliefs are under attack in the ongoing war of ideas. The author explores why, surveying a broad swath of accusations and efforts to change Muslim and Islamist ideas and institutions.

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  The Evolution of U.S. Turkish Relations in a Transatlantic Context

  Frances G. Burwell Dr.

  The relationship between Turkey and the United States is complicated because of differing core purposes and somewhat differing memberships, i.e., NATO and the European Union. Current Turkey-U.S. diplomatic and military relations are strained, but both countries recognize how vital it is to address issues of mutual importance. In mid-2007 the Atlantic Council, Strategic Studies Institute, and German Marshall Fund of the United States jointly organized a conference to discuss the current state of U.S.-Turkish-EU ties and to consider how those relations might be repaired and enhanced. This conference report provides an overview of the enduring issues that must be addressed if Turkey-U.S. relations are to move beyond current roadblocks and begin to realize their full potential. Since this conference took place, the political environment in Turkey has changed, and several of the issues, such as the use of Iraq as a staging area by Kurdish insurgents, have continued to evolve. Such dynamics reveal the importance of the ideas surfaced in each of the conference presentations and the need to continue addressing the issues identified.

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  The Evolution of U.S. Turkish Relations in a Transatlantic Context

  Frances G. Burwell Dr.

  The relationship between Turkey and the United States is complicated because of differing core purposes and somewhat differing memberships, i.e., NATO and the European Union. Current Turkey-U.S. diplomatic and military relations are strained, but both countries recognize how vital it is to address issues of mutual importance. In mid-2007 the Atlantic Council, Strategic Studies Institute, and German Marshall Fund of the United States jointly organized a conference to discuss the current state of U.S.-Turkish-EU ties and to consider how those relations might be repaired and enhanced. This conference report provides an overview of the enduring issues that must be addressed if Turkey-U.S. relations are to move beyond current roadblocks and begin to realize their full potential. Since this conference took place, the political environment in Turkey has changed, and several of the issues, such as the use of Iraq as a staging area by Kurdish insurgents, have continued to evolve. Such dynamics reveal the importance of the ideas surfaced in each of the conference presentations and the need to continue addressing the issues identified.

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  Building for the Future: China's Progress in Space Technology during the Tenth 5-Year Plan and the U.S. Response

  Kevin Pollpeter Mr.

  The Chinese government is using space power to increase its influence at home and abroad and hopes to leverage the political, economic, and military benefits of space to become a great power. The ambivalent nature of the U.S.-China relationship, however, assures that over the long term China's rise as a space power will present challenges to the United States. Militarily, China's improved remote sensing capabilities and launch tempos require the U.S. military to prepare to counteract China's use of space in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Commercially, China's lower labor costs and mercantilist approach to space could establish China as a competitive market force. Politically, U.S. diplomats must recognize the role Chinese space activities plays in diplomacy and be prepared to ameliorate cooperative activities that impinge on U.S. national security. Despite these drawbacks, cooperation with China cannot be ruled out. Cooperation can improve scientific research, increase safety, and make an opaque program more transparent, but should not directly improve China's military or commercial capabilities. Consequently, the U.S. response to China's rise as a space power should take a balanced approach in which challenges are managed and opportunities exploited.

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  Drug Intoxicated Irregular Fighters: Complications, Dangers, and Responses

  Paul Rexton Kan Dr.

  The presence of drugged fighters is not unknown in the history of warfare. Yet widespread drug use on the battlefield is now part of protracted conflicts largely fought by nonprofessional combatants that take place in an international system characterized by the process of globalization. From marijuana, khat, hallucinogenic mushrooms, cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine to looted pharmaceuticals, irregular fighters have found a ready supply of narcotics to consume for a variety of combat purposes. Such consumption has led to unpredictable fighting, the commission of atrocities, and to the prolongation of internal violence. The presence of intoxicated combatants will continue to be a feature of armed conflict and requires a fuller accounting to adequately prepare policymakers and military planners for future conflicts.

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  Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime

  Andrew Scobell Dr.

  The author seeks to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. He does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these. It is entirely possible that the fate of the country as a political, territorial, and juridical entity is intimately bound up with the fate of the Kim Jong Il regime, but one should not assume this to be so. In other words, the collapse of the Kim regime may not lead to the collapse of North Korea as a state. Moreover, one should not assume that even if the regime collapse is followed by state collapse that these events would inexorably lead to Korean unification.

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  Security Sector Reform in Liberia: Mixed Results from Humble Beginnings

  Mark Malan Mr.

  The author presents an explanatory overview and analysis of progress made with the process of security sector reform in Liberia--with particular reference to the armed forces and the police. The author begins with a concise review of what the theory of SSR and its application in the Liberian context and follows with a description of Liberia’s post-war security architecture and the urgent need for a comprehensive and sustained process of reform. An overview of the legal and conceptual framework for engaging in SSR in Liberia is provided as further backdrop to substantive sections dealing with the reform (or re-building) of the Armed Forces of Liberia and the Liberia National Police. The author concludes with a critical analysis of the SSR process and recommendations for further action.

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  The Political Context Behind Successful Revolutionary Movements, Three Case Studies: Vietnam (1955-63), Algeria (1945-62), and Nicaragua (1967-79)

  Raymond A. Millen LTC

  Following the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the new world order did not bring about a closure of revolutionary warfare. In fact, the Soviet-inspired wars of liberation against imperialism have been eclipsed by reactionary, jihadist wars. By all indications in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Somalia, and Iraq, Islamic militants have embraced revolutionary warfare, although not Mao’s People’s War model. Therefore, a study of revolutionary warfare is apt because the conflict between the West and radical jihadism will continue to take place in dysfunctional, collapsing, or failed states. The author examines the political-military lessons from these conflicts and suggests that the United States should minimize the level and type of assistance to states fighting in an insurgency because these states possess greater advantages than previously supposed.

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  The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program

  Daniel A. Pinkston Dr.

  North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs have drawn international attention for years. In the early 1960s, Pyongyang began to pursue the capability to produce advanced weapons systems, including rockets and missiles. However, foreign assistance and technology, particularly from China and the Soviet Union, were instrumental in the acquisition of these capabilities. The ballistic missile inventory now totals about 800 road-mobile missiles, including about 200 Nodong missiles that could strike Japan. In April 2007, North Korea for the first time displayed two new missiles: a short-range tactical missile that poses a threat to Seoul and U.S. Forces in South Korea, and an intermediate-range missile that could potentially strike Guam. Although North Korea has not demonstrated the ability to produce a nuclear warhead package for its missiles, its missiles are believed to be capable of delivering chemical and possibly biological munitions. North Korean media and government officials claim the country needs a nuclear deterrent to cope with the “hostile policy of the United States,” but Pyongyang has never officially abandoned its objective of “completing the revolution in the south.” Little is known about North Korean military doctrine and the role of its ballistic missiles, but National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Chong-il has ultimate authority over their disposition.

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  Developing Strategic Leaders for the 21st Century

  Jeffrey D. McCausland Dr.

  Emerging analysis of the American interagency and intergovernmental processes has underscored the nation’s inability to respond effectively and coherently to contemporary national security demands. Modifications to various organizations and the overall interagency process have been recommended. These are clearly required, but there has not been sufficient attention focused on the nonmilitary human capital required to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Specifically, the Federal Government lacks a comprehensive process to ensure the recruitment, development, and retention of leaders capable of effectively integrating the contributions of specialized government agencies on behalf of larger national security interests. This new security environment requires people who are not only substantively qualified and knowledgeable of policy issues, but also possess the leadership abilities to direct large complex organizations.

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  Developing Strategic Leaders for the 21st Century

  Jeffrey D. McCausland Dr.

  Emerging analysis of the American interagency and intergovernmental processes has underscored the nation’s inability to respond effectively and coherently to contemporary national security demands. Modifications to various organizations and the overall interagency process have been recommended. These are clearly required, but there has not been sufficient attention focused on the nonmilitary human capital required to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Specifically, the Federal Government lacks a comprehensive process to ensure the recruitment, development, and retention of leaders capable of effectively integrating the contributions of specialized government agencies on behalf of larger national security interests. This new security environment requires people who are not only substantively qualified and knowledgeable of policy issues, but also possess the leadership abilities to direct large complex organizations.

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  Dissent and Strategic Leadership of the Military Professions

  Don M. Snider Dr.

  One of the central difficulties to a right understanding of American civil-military relations is the nature of the U.S. military. Are our armed forces just obedient bureaucracies like most of the Executive branch, or are they vocational professions granted significant autonomy and a unique role in these relationships because of their expert knowledge and their expertise to apply it in the defense of America? To large measure, the answer to this question should determine the behavior of the strategic leaders of these professions, including the uncommon behavior of public dissent. Using the “Revolt of the Generals” in 2006 as stimulus, the author develops from the study of military professions the critical trust relationships that should have informed their individual decisions to dissent. After doing so, he makes recommendations for the restoration of the professions’ ethic in this critical area of behavior by the senior officers who are the professions’ strategic leaders.

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  Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom

  Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  If possible, it would be useful to enhance the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ability to detect and prevent nuclear diversions. This would not only reduce the current risk of nuclear proliferation, it would make the further expansion of nuclear power much less risky. The question is what is possible? To date, little has been attempted to answer this basic question. Periodic reports by the U.S. Government Accountability Office and the IAEA have highlighted budgetary, personnel, and and administrative challenges that are facing the agency. There also has been a 2-year internal IAEA review of how existing IAEA safeguards procedures might be improved. None of these assessments, however, has tackled the more fundamental question of how well the IAEA is actually doing in achieving its nuclear material accountancy mission.

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  Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom

  Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  If possible, it would be useful to enhance the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ability to detect and prevent nuclear diversions. This would not only reduce the current risk of nuclear proliferation, it would make the further expansion of nuclear power much less risky. The question is what is possible? To date, little has been attempted to answer this basic question. Periodic reports by the U.S. Government Accountability Office and the IAEA have highlighted budgetary, personnel, and and administrative challenges that are facing the agency. There also has been a 2-year internal IAEA review of how existing IAEA safeguards procedures might be improved. None of these assessments, however, has tackled the more fundamental question of how well the IAEA is actually doing in achieving its nuclear material accountancy mission.

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  Towards a New Russia Policy

  Stephen J. Blank Dr.

  It is obvious that U.S.-Russian relations and East-West relations more broadly have recently deteriorated. Yet analyses of why this is the case have often been confined to American policy. The author examines some of the key strategic issues at stake in this relationship and traces that decline to Russian factors which have been overlooked or neglected. At the same time, he has devoted considerable time to recording some of the shortcomings of U.S. policy and recommending a way out of the growing impasse confronting both sides.