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Endgame for the West in Afghanistan? Explaining the Decline in Support for the War in Afghanistan in the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, France and Germany
Charles A. Miller Mr.
Domestic public opinion is frequently and correctly described as a crucial battlefront in the war in Afghanistan. Commentary by media and political figures currently notes not only the falling support for the war in the United States but also in many of its key allies in Europe and elsewhere, making it all the more difficult for the Obama administration to secure the help it believes it needs to bring the war to a successful conclusion. This study is an extensive examination of the determinants of domestic support for and opposition to the war in Afghanistan in the United States and in five of its key allies--the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, and Australia. Tracing the trajectory of public opinion on the war from the original invasion in 2001 to the fall of 2009, this paper concludes that the combination of mounting casualties with a declining belief that the war could be won by the Coalition is the key factor driving the drop in support. Other factors, such as the deployment of numerous and shifting rationales by the political leadership in various countries, and the breakdown of elite consensus have played important but secondary roles in this process.
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Decisionmaking In Operation IRAQI FREEDOM: The Strategic Shift of 2007
Steven Metz Dr.
In this second volume of the series, Dr. Metz looks carefully at the 2007 decision to surge forces into Iraq, a choice which is generally considered to have been effective in turning the tide of the war from potential disaster to possible—perhaps probable—strategic success. Although numerous strategic decisions remain to be made as the U.S. military executes its “responsible withdrawal” from Iraq, Dr. Metz has encapsulated much of the entire war in these two monographs, describing both the start and what may eventually be seen as the beginning of the end of the war. In this volume, he provides readers with an explanation of how a decision process that was fundamentally unchanged—with essentially the same people shaping and making the decision—could produce such a different result in 2007. As the current administration tries to replicate the surge in Afghanistan, this monograph is especially timely and shows the perils of attempting to achieve success in one strategic situation by copying actions successfully taken in another, but where different conditions applied.
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Implications of a Changing NATO
Phillip R. Cuccia, COL (Ret) Dr
NATO officials plan to unveil the new NATO Strategic Concept during the Alliance’s summit in Portugal at the end of this year. This monograph focuses on the impact of what the Strategic Concept will have on the Alliance. This analysis describes recent trends within NATO and their implications. The monograph provides senior military and political leaders with a discussion of the changing composition of the NATO nations and the impact of these changes on the nature of the Alliance. This monograph describes four possible scenarios of what NATO could look like in the future in order to give senior leaders thoughts to consider while instituting NATO policy. The NATO Alliance has now reached its 60th birthday and is currently in the middle of updating and rewriting the new Strategic Concept. The Alliance, which has grown to 28 countries, is facing problems with changing demographics, an awkward relationship with Russia, a war in Afghanistan and threats of global jihad. Muslim immigration into Europe and population aging will have a great impact on European views of the Alliance. NATO must decide how closely it wants to work and coordinate with Russia in future endeavors. The most important issue at hand is how NATO is going to fare coming out of the war in Afghanistan. The desired NATO outcome needs to be defined clearly. It is imperative that the New Strategic Concept address NATO goals in Afghanistan and the ways and means of accomplishing those goals. Defined goals will give member nations objectives while formulating national defense plans. Getting the Strategic Concept right is the first step in maintain the health of the Alliance.
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Sufism in Northern Nigeria: A Force for Counter-Radicalization?
Jonathan N. C. Hill Dr.
In light of the ongoing threats issued by al-Qaeda (AQ) against the United States and its allies, the need to prevent the radicalization of young Muslim men and women remains as pressing as ever, and perhaps nowhere is this task more urgent than in the countries of West Africa. The global expanse of the ongoing war on terror places these territories in the frontline. With large Muslim populations that have hitherto remained mostly impervious to the advances of Islamism, the challenge now confronting the Nigerian government and the international community is ensuring that this remains the case. But in recent months, Islamist groups have been highly active in the region. The aim of this monograph is to assess the potential of Nigeria’s Sufi Brotherhoods to act, both individually and collectively, as a force for counter-radicalization, to prevent young people from joining Islamist groups.
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Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy for Success: Employing Talent
Casey Wardynski Colonel, Michael J. Colarusso Dr., and David S. Lyle Colonel
Efficient talent employment is at the core of the Army Officer Human Capital Model. However, the Army’s current employment paradigm is unequal to the needs of a professional, volunteer Army facing the twin challenges of a competitive labor market and an increasingly complex global operating environment. It unduly prioritizes "fairness" when making assignments, has a narrowly defined pathway to senior leadership ranks, cannot see the talent it possesses, and suffers from severe principal-agent problems. Optimal employment theories, information age tools, and well-regulated market mechanisms can help the Army match individual officer talents against specific work requirements, reducing risk and achieving the depth and breadth of talent it needs, both now and in the future.
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Crime, Violence, and the Crisis in Guatemala: A Case Study in the Erosion of the State
Hal Brands Dr.
Guatemala is currently experiencing a full-blown crisis of the democratic state. An unholy trinity of criminal elements—international drug traffickers, domestically based organized crime syndicates, and youth gangs—is effectively waging a form of irregular warfare against government institutions, with devastating consequences. The police, the judiciary, and entire local and departmental governments are rife with criminal infiltrators; murder statistics have surpassed civil-war levels in recent years; criminal operatives brazenly assassinate government officials and troublesome members of the political class; and broad swaths of territory are now effectively under the control of criminal groups. Guatemala’s weak institutions have been unable to contain this violence, leading to growing civic disillusion and causing a marked erosion in the authority and legitimacy of the government.
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Shades of CORDS in the Kush: The False Hope of "Unity of Effort" in American Counterinsurgency
Henry Nuzum Mr.
Counterinsurgency (COIN) requires an integrated military, political, and economic program best developed by teams that field both civilians and soldiers. These units should operate with some independence but under a coherent command. In Vietnam, after several false starts, the United States developed an effective unified organization, Civil Operations and Revolutionary Development Support (CORDS), to guide the counterinsurgency. CORDS had three components absent from our efforts in Afghanistan today: sufficient personnel (particularly civilian), numerous teams, and a single chain of command that united the separate COIN programs of the disparate American departments at the district, provincial, regional, and national levels. This Paper focuses on the third issue and describes the benefits that unity of command at every level would bring to the American war in Afghanistan. The work begins with a brief introduction to counterinsurgency theory, using a population-centric model, and examines how this warfare challenges the United States. It traces the evolution of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and the country team, describing problems at both levels. Similar efforts in Vietnam are compared, where persistent executive attention finally integrated the government’s counterinsurgency campaign under the unified command of the CORDS program. The next section attributes the American tendency towards a segregated response to cultural differences between the primary departments, executive neglect, and societal concepts of war. The Paper argues that, in its approach to COIN, the United States has forsaken the military concept of unity of command in favor of “unity of effort” expressed in multiagency literature. The final sections describe how unified authority would improve our efforts in Afghanistan and propose a model for the future.
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The Construction of Liberal Democracy: The Role of Civil-Military Institutions in State and Nation-Building in West Germany and South Africa
Jack J. Porter Dr.
Recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan remind U.S. policymakers of the tremendous obstacles and challenges that confront states as they attempt to install liberal, democratic political institutions. The multifaceted transition process involves a host of overlapping and interrelated political, economic, and social innovations that often must be tailored to the specific historical, demographic, and regional needs of each community. While it would be presumptuous to suggest any rigid schedule or set of priorities, most scholars and policymakers agree that restructuring the security and civil-military institutions is vital to the transition. The primary focus of this analysis is a detailed examination of two earlier and successful efforts at democratization—the Federal Republic of Germany and South Africa—paying particular attention to the role of civil-military institutions. The West German and South African examples illustrate the intricate complexities and numerous considerations that factor into this process and provide some important lessons for the future. This monograph analyzes the decisionmaking process behind the construction of the German and South African armed forces in their transition to democracy, and it concludes with a brief list of policy recommendations for future efforts geared toward democratizing formerly authoritarian armed forces.
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Thinking about Nuclear Power in Post-Saddam Iraq
Norman Cigar Dr.
Iraqis are debating the desirability of atomic power for their country. One can expect increasing Iraqi calls for a revival of the country’s nuclear capability, at least in the civilian sector, which reflects a general consensus within key sectors of Iraqi public opinion as well as a growing regional trend. The Iraqi government will continue to reestablish its legitimacy by its support of a nuclear program as a litmus test for modernity and success, and has asked France to rebuild its former reactor, although significant practical obstacles will hamper rapid development in the nuclear field. Despite a continuing widespread perception of the utility of nuclear weapons, at least in some sectors of Iraqi opinion, a near-term resumption of a military nuclear program is not likely, although volatile conditions in the region and within Iraq itself could change that option at some time in the future. U.S. and international policymakers will have to consider Iraqi views as they shape policy to manage the process of an orderly, safe, and peaceful nuclear reintegration of Iraq in the civilian sector while guaranteeing safeguards against both accidents and any future diversion of a nuclear program for military purposes or terrorist exploitation.
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Criminal Sovereignty: Understanding North Korea's Illicit International Activities
Paul Rexton Kan Dr., Bruce E. Bechtol Dr., and Robert M. Collins Mr.
This monograph examines Office Number 39’s origins, organizational structure, and activities in order to develop a more calibrated strategy and policy to meet the North Korean challenge. This monograph focuses on Office Number 39's key illicit activities— to include manufacture and distribution of illegal drugs, the counterfeiting of U.S. currency, and the manufacture and distribution of counterfeit cigarettes. Finally, as Kim Jong-Il grows frailer, assessing how his successor may continue or alter Office Number 39’s activities is also examined.
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Lashkar-I-Taiba: The Fallacy of Subservient Proxies and the Future of Islamist Terrorism in India
Ryan Clarke Dr.
A discussion of the foundation of Lashkar-i-Taiba (LeT), the development of its modus operandi, and engages in an investigation of LeT’s activities in India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir region are discussed. Further, LeT’s fundraising methods are touched upon, and LeT’s relationships with regional state and nonstate actors such as Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Dawood Ibrahim’s D-Company are analyzed. Also, the impact that these developments have on domestic Islamist terrorism in India are addressed. The author argues that although LeT has been a vital component of Islamabad’s regional strategy in the past, the organization has grown beyond the control of its former patron, is largely self-sufficient and operates independently of the political process, and has expanded its agenda well beyond Kashmir. These developments challenge the long-held notion that irregulars can be sustainably used to achieve limited objectives in an asymmetric conflict and should serve as a clear warning to other state sponsors of terrorism. However, contrary to many analyses, LeT is not likely to sacrifice its independence and come under Al-Qaeda’s umbrella. Rather, LeT will continue to evolve into a distinctive, South Asia-centric terrorist actor in its own right while still receiving aid from fringe elements in Pakistan’s security and intelligence apparatus and elsewhere. This will not only allow LeT to continue to plan future Mumbai-style terrorist attacks in India from safe havens in Pakistan, but will also allow LeT to guide and assist the predominantly indigenous Indian Mujahideen (IM).
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Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy for Success: Developing Talent
Casey Wardynski Colonel, David S. Lyle Colonel, and Michael J. Colarusso Dr.
Developing leaders through experience, formal training, and education is a long-standing hallmark of the U.S. Army. Maintaining its excellence as a developmental organization requires vigilance, however. Authorized strength and inventory mismatches, an inverse relationship between responsibility and formal developmental time, and sparse nonoperational development opportunities are serious challenges the Army must address. Doing so requires a talent development strategy firmly rooted in human capital theory. Such a strategy will recognize the value of continuing higher education, genuinely useful evaluations, and the signals associated with professional credentials.
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Transnational Insurgencies and the Escalation of Regional Conflict: Lessons for Iraq and Afghanistan
Idean Salehyan Dr
Many insurgents groups benefit from sanctuaries in neighboring countries where they are relatively safe from state security forces. These transnational insurgencies complicate traditional counterinsurgency operations in significant ways. Most importantly, transnational insurgencies have the potential to spark conflicts between neighboring countries. This monograph examines several transnational insurgencies that have been active since the end of the Cold War. While many neighboring countries have experienced the escalation of conflict between them as the result of cross-border violence, other states have successfully cooperated in providing border security. In depth case studies of relations between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo as well as India and its eastern neighbors are explored. The lessons learned from this research are applied to contemporary issues facing Iraq and Afghanistan.
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Accessing Talent: The Foundation of a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy
Casey Wardynski Colonel, David S. Lyle Colonel, and Michael J. Colarusso Dr.
Accessing Talent: The Foundation of a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy, is the fourth of six monographs focused upon officer talent management in the U.S. Army. In it, the authors continue their examination of how the U.S. Army accesses, develops, retains, and employs officer talent. In particular, they focus upon the ways in which dynamic labor market conditions and generational preferences have shaped service propensity among potential officer prospects.
As in the previous volumes of this series, the authors first articulate a theoretical framework for improvement and then demonstrate how the application of those theories can yield desired results. In sum, they explain why a proper talent accessions strategy can create a “positive sum game” for the Army as perhaps nothing else can. Since the officer accessions process presents the Army with a dramatic opportunity to leverage talent investments made by others, the theories and programs discussed in this monograph merit thoughtful consideration.
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Decisionmaking in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM: Removing Saddam Hussein by Force
Steven Metz Dr. and John R. Martin Professor
In 1946, General Walter Bedell Smith wrote a series of articles describing six great decisions made in World War II by General Dwight David Eisenhower Writing so soon after the war, General Smith could not hope to produce a definitive history, but felt that writing then would document an important viewpoint of one of the major participants in Eisenhower’s many significant decisions. With this initial volume of their Operation IRAQI FREEDOM Key Decisions Monograph Series, the Strategic Studies Institute also attempts to write about key decisions while they are still fresh in the memories of the participants. This series will not produce a definitive history, however, it will make a major contribution to understanding decisions made by senior military and civilian leaders during the several years thus far of the war in Iraq. Looking more at the how and why of certain decisions than at the results of those same decisions, this series will be particularly useful to senior leaders--both uniformed and civilian--as they reflect on how decisions were made in Iraq and how better decisions might be made in future conflicts. As General James Mattis at Joint Forces Command recently said, the challenges of operating in a counterinsurgency can be greater than in large-scale conventional combat, “since the adversary has more flexibility to determine how, when, where, and whether to fight.” This, plus the fact that irregular combat is the more likely challenge of the future operating environment, makes it even more important to examine the key decisions of Operation IRAQI FREEDOM as soon as possible. One of the greatest strengths of our Army over the centuries has been its ability to look critically at itself and to devise ways to improve its ability to prosecute the Nation’s wars.
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Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending?
Clayton K. S. Chun Dr.
This monograph explores the impact that oil revenue had on the national defense spending of five oil-exporting countries. Despite periods of falling oil revenues, these countries typically did not lower defense spending. In some cases, defense spending increased sharply, or the rate of decrease was much lower than the drop in oil revenues. This condition creates challenges for national security professionals. If nations face falling oil revenues and still have the will and ability to expand their military or security capabilities, then they might do so through the sacrifice of domestic spending or regional stability. Economic sanctions, worldwide recession, or falling oil demand may not stop these oil-exporting nations from purchasing weapons and creating large security forces. Policies that attempt to limit oil revenues of potential enemies alone may not be sufficient to inhibit them from creating regional instability through expansion of their defense capabilities. Hopes for reduced defense expenditures, by countries like Iran, as a result of a drop in energy demand seem to be diminished by these findings. A more complex picture emerges that forces analysts and policymakers to search more broadly for options to stem potential arms races that may be fueled by the riches of oil-exporting countries.
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Medvedev's Plan: Giving Russia a Voice but not a Veto in a New European Security System
Richard J. Krickus Dr.
The author addresses the question of how to give Russia a voice but not a veto in a new European security system and provides some provocative recommendations. Most specifically, he proposes that the time has come to provide Russia with a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) and agrees that those who argue against it remain mired in a Cold War mindset that is out of sync with today’s strategic realities. Ultimately, a campaign to include Russia in NATO may fail but at the very least, the endeavor deserves serious consideration. He also provides compelling reasons why U.S. defense analysts must consider several future outcomes for Russia. In addition to being the only state that is capable of devastating the United States in a nuclear exchange, most of the world’s population and resources exist on the borders of its massive territory. Its future then, will shape the global strategic environment for decades to come.
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Security and Stability in Africa: A Development Approach
Clarence J. Bouchat (USAF, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel
The security and stability of Africa has recently become an important national issue readily seen in the increased time, effort, and resources now devoted to the continent by such new organizations as the U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM). This paper seeks to overcome centuries of ignorance and misunderstanding about the conditions and people of Africa by discussing the fundamental issues of economic development and political governance through which enduring stability and security might be obtained. This paper offers solutions in terms of improving African stability and security and a framework of several key issues which should give policymakers the knowledge they need to work in a constantly changing and very challenging environment.
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The Army Officers' Professional Ethic--Past, Present, and Future
Matthew Moten Colonel
Colonel Matthew Moten of the West Point History Department has asked why so many other professions have clear statements of professional responsibility, but the Army officer corps does not. This essay briefly surveys the history of the Army’s professional ethic, focusing primarily on the officer corps. It assesses today’s strategic, professional, and ethical environment. Then it argues that a clear statement of the Army officers’ professional ethic is especially necessary in a time when the Army is stretched and stressed as an institution. The Army officer corps has both a need and an opportunity to better define itself as a profession, forthrightly to articulate its professional ethic, and clearly to codify what it means to be a military professional. Finally, the monograph articulates such an ethic focusing on the four roles of commissioned officers—Soldier, servant of the nation, leader of character, and member of a time-honored profession.
NB:
In the Fall of 2013, the author of this monograph, Army Colonel Matthew Moten, chose to retire amid reports of his reprimand for misconduct and removal as head of the U.S. Military Academy's History Department, following an investigation of allegations made against him. Published in 2010, this monograph presents the results of Colonel Moten's critical analysis of an issue important to the Army: deepening our understanding of what the Professional Military Ethic means to the profession today. The monograph remains a solid contribution to the dialogue among professionals the Army leadership sought to ignite. In particular, readers should note well Moten's closing paragraphs:"Before the Army accepts such a statement of its professional ethic, much debate is in order. Should we use hard phrases such as "total accountability" and "unlimited liability?" What are officers' core responsibilities as leaders and how far do they extend?
How concisely should we explicate our adherence to the principle of civilian control? Should we espouse nonpartisanship as part of our ethic? The debate required to answer such questions will provide impetus for an Army-wide discussion about the profession, its ethical values, and the role that it should play as a servant of American society in the future. Let it begin."
We, at the U.S. Army War College believe the conversation on the Army's professional ethic must continue, and still find value in Moten's 2010 work, notwithstanding the situation that led to his relief.
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The Effects of Multiple Deployments on Army Adolescents
Leonard Wong Dr. and Stephen J. Gerras Dr.
Multiple deployments have become a way of life for our Soldiers. In Army families, these frequent deployments increase the burden on children who must face the stress and strain of separation and anxiety. The authors take a much-needed, detailed look at the effects of multiple deployments on Army adolescents. The results of this study reinforce some of what we already know concerning deployments and children, but they also reveal some very interesting, counterintuitive findings that challenge the conventional wisdom concerning Army adolescents. This study goes beyond merely explaining the impact 8 years of war is having on the children of our Soldiers; rather, it explores the specific factors that increase or alleviate stress on Army adolescents. The results reveal that Army adolescents, contrary to what many believed, are much more self-aware and resilient. Furthermore, they are capable of understanding the multiple implications of having a parent serve in the all-volunteer Army during a time of war. Army children may experience the anxiety and stress that often surround a parent’s deployment, but results conclude that there are factors that policymakers, leaders, and parents can use to increase a child’s ability to cope with a life of repeated deployments. In this era of persistent conflict, we should carefully consider such findings.
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Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy for Success: Retaining Talent
Michael J. Colarusso Dr., Casey Wardynski Colonel, and David S. Lyle Colonel
Over the last 3 decades, dramatic labor market changes and well-intentioned but uninformed policies have created significant officer talent flight. Poor retention engenders substantial risk for the Army as it directly affects accessions, development, and employment of talent. The Army cannot make thoughtful policy decisions if its officer talent pipeline continues to leak at current rates. Since the Army cannot insulate itself from labor market forces as it tries to retain talent, the retention component of its officer strategy must rest upon sound market principles. It must be continuously resourced, executed, measured, and adjusted across time and budget cycles. Absent these steps, systemic policy, and decisionmaking failures will continue to confound Army efforts to create a talent-focused officer corps strategy.
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A Case Study in Security Sector Reform: Learning from Security Sector Reform/Building in Afghanistan (October 2002-September 2003)
Jason C. Howk Captain
This paper provides a case study to help explain the SSR concepts that were recently formalized in U.S. Army Field Manual 3.07, "Stability Operations Doctrine." It provides insights into how the military interacts with host-nation governments, the United Nations, the State Department, and national embassies to solve today’s complex problems. The author’s experience revealed many pitfalls in security sector building and international team-building that we are trying to avoid today. The author points out the synergy that was lost because of a lack of coordination and understanding between government officials and nongovernmental organizations like aid groups, academia, and think tanks.
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India's Strategic Defense Transformation: Expanding Global Relationships
Brian K. Hedrick Lieutenant Colonel
India’s transformation to modernize its military, obtain “strategic partnerships” with the United States and other nations, and expand its influence in the Indian Ocean and beyond includes a shift from an emphasis on the former Soviet Union as the primary supplier of defense articles to a western base of supply and an increasing emphasis on bilateral exercises and training with many of the global powers. The author explores the nature of this transformation, offers insights into the history of Indian defense relations, and suggests implications to U.S. foreign and defense policy. Much has been written regarding India’s relations with its neighbors, especially Pakistan and China. The author adds a new perspective by taking a global view of India’s rise as a regional and future global military power through its bilateral defense relations and the potential conflict this creates with India’s legacy as a leader of the Non-Aligned Movement.
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Schools for Strategy: Teaching Strategy for 21st Century Conflict
Colin S. Gray Dr.
All would-be strategists would benefit by some formal education. However, for education in strategy to be well-directed, it needs to rest upon sound assumptions concerning the eternal nature yet ever shifting character, meaning, and function of strategy, as well as the range of behaviors required for effective strategic performance. The author emphasizes the necessity for strategic education to help develop the strategic approach, the way of thinking that can solve or illuminate strategic problems. He advises that such education should not strive for a spurious relevance by presenting a military variant of current affairs. The author believes that the strategist will perform better in today's world if he has mastered and can employ strategy’s general theory.
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Talent: Implications for a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy
Casey Wardynski Colonel, David S. Lyle Colonel, and Michael J. Colarusso Dr.
In our proposed Army Officer Corps Strategy, we established the interdependency of accessing, developing, retaining and employing talented leaders. Before exploring each of those functions in greater detail, however, we must first define “talent.” In our view, talent is something possessed by everyone. In fact, each individual has a unique distribution of talent across three dimensions—skills, knowledge, and behaviors. Effective organizations understand this. They successfully access and retain a depth and breadth of talent that can be developed and employed against current and future requirements.
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