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World View: The 1995 Strategic Assessment from the Strategic Studies Institute
Earl H. Tilford Dr.
Every year the analysts at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) prepare current assessments for their particular areas of interest. These assessments become the bedrock of the annual SSI Study Program. This year's assessments are crucial given the complexities of the post-Cold War world. Russia remains an enigma wrapped in a riddle with Russian national interests very much paramount in the Kremlin's thinking. As 1995 begins, Russian troops are heavily engaged in putting down a rebellion in the secessionist republic of Chechnya. The implications for the future of Russian democracy may be significant. The world of 1995 is very much one of continuity and change. Accordingly, old hatreds are very much a part of the equation. In the Middle East, Syria, Israel, and the Palestine Liberation Organization work toward a just and lasting peace. However, new hot spots, like Algeria, will emerge unexpectedly. In the Far East, North Korea and the United States are attempting to decrease tensions while Washington and Hanoi are moving much more rapidly toward better relations. China continues to modernize its military forces while Japan and the United States are seeking areas for economic cooperation. In Africa, the ravages of war and nature were part of the story in 1994. However, bright spots did occur, to include the peaceful transition to black majority rule in South Africa. In 1995 there will be reasons for optimism, like continued economic growth in Botswana and Namibia. On the other hand, corrupt governments, infectious diseases, and high population growth continue as areas for concern. South America, like Africa, is a continent beset with challenges and opportunities in the coming year. Rapidly expanding population and continuing poverty will frustrate proponents of democratic change in countries like Venezuela. While illegal migration from Central America has abated, in the Caribbean the potential for increased migration may grow in 1995.
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Russia's Invasion of Chechnya: A Preliminary Assessment
Stephen J. Blank Dr. and Earl H. Tilford Dr.
On December 11, 1994, Russia invaded the secessionist republic of Chechnya in the North Caucasus. The aim was to suppress the republic's government, led by General Dzhokar Dudayev, compel it to accept Moscow's authority, and to force it to renounce its bid for independence and sovereignty. This invasion, which quickly turned into a military quagmire for Russia's troops, triggered a firestorm of domestic opposition, even within the higher levels of the Ministry of Defense. As a result, the invasion has the most profound and troubling possible consequences for the stability of the Russian government, Russian democracy, and the future political-military relationship. This special report, based on what is already known, attempts to assess the discernible consequences of this invasion and provide a framework within which future developments can be assessed.
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Pandora's Box Reopened: Ethnic Conflict in Europe and Its Implications
William T. Johnsen Dr.
The resurgence of ethnic animosities in Europe has substantial consequences for the United States, which has a vital interest in maintaining peace and stability in Europe. Because ethnic conflict potentially represents a significant threat to those national objectives, a strong likelihood exists that the United States will continue to be involved in efforts to prevent or resolve ethnically motivated violence. The purpose of this study is to help prepare soldiers, policymakers, and statesmen for future U.S. involvement in ethnic conflict in Europe. The study offers a brief explanation of the strategic significance of ethnic conflict in Europe. It next provides a primer on ethnicity, and then acquaints policymakers with the historical and proximate sources of ethnic conflict in Europe. The report next identifies and analyzes the spectrum, patterns, and special characteristics of ethnic conflict. The difficulties inherent in crafting policy options, to include strategic objectives and political and military concepts, are then addressed. The study next assesses the implications of ethnic conflict in Europe for the U.S. Army. Brief recommendations for policymakers and their advisors close the report. While this report focuses on Europe, it bears noting that many of the insights and recommendations apply to ethnic conflict in other regions of the world.
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The Awakening: The Zapatista Revolt and Its Implications for Civil-Military Relations and the Future of Mexico
Stephen J. Wager LTC and Donald E. Schulz Dr.
Drs. Stephen Wager and Donald Schulz examine the causes, nature and implications of the Zapatista uprising, emphasizing in particular its impact on Mexican civil-military relations. They argue that, together with the onset of democratization, the Chiapas rebellion has strained these relations and led to a certain mutual distancing between the Mexican army and government. Interestingly enough, however, they argue that this may actually be a good thing since it means that the military is becoming a more politically neutral institution and will likely be more open to the idea of an opposition electoral victory than in the past. Of more immediate importance, Wager and Schulz note that there has been little progress toward resolving the rebellion, and that as long as this is so fighting could very well break out anew, with disastrous results. They therefore urge the incoming Zedillo administration to move quickly to "bring the Zapatistas in from the cold" by co-opting them and their supporters both economically and politically. This means fulfilling not only the socioeconomic promises that have been made by the government, but reforming state and local political power structures to assure the rule of law and the access of those who have been shut out of the system. They further argue that the process of national political reform should be broadened and deepened, since without democratization on the national level any other gains that might be made would probably be ephemeral.
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Total Force: Federal Reserves and State National Guards
Charles E. Heller COL
Never before in peacetime has the United States placed so much emphasis and reliance on the Armed Forces' Reserve Components. Since the Total Force Policy was introduced by Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird in 1970, this dependency has grown even more. The 1990 mobilization for OPERATION DESERT SHIELD and the follow-on offensive OPERATION DESERT STORM in 1991 validated the use of the Reserve Components for contingency operations and guaranteed the policy's extension for the foreseeable future. Yet, even with the renewed emphasis on the Reserve Components' roles, their legal basis, mission, mobilization, training, force structure, and relationship to their respective Active Component remain relatively little understood. There are relatively few, if any, single source references pertaining to these Reserve Component areas. This report responds to the growing strategic importance of the Armed Forces Reserve Components. Declining defense budgets leading to small Active Component forces, coupled with inherent dangers facing the world community in a multipolar world, makes the use of Reserve forces on a recurring basis a necessity. This is especially true for Reserve Combat Support and Combat Service Support Forces not readily available in the Active Components. In essence, because of the relatively short time in which contingency operations unfold, the Reserve Components have become the Nation's strategic reserve insurance policy.
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Hamas and Hizbollah: The Radical Challenge to Israel in the Occupied Territories
Stephen C. Pelletiere Dr.
This study argues that Hamas and Hizbollah, the two main religious groups fighting Israel, probably are more threatening to U.S. interests than is generally believed. It discusses the various openings that the groups were able to exploit to advance themselves, and particularly how they profited from errors on the Israelis' part. At the same time, the study contends, there has been a corresponding rise of religious radicalism in Israel. This means that on both sides of the struggle--Jewish as well as Arab-- extremism is gaining strength. It is going to be difficult, the study concludes, to avoid a decisive confrontation between the two forces.
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Security Cooperation with China: Analysis and a Proposal
Thomas L. Wilborn Dr.
Dr. Wilborn examines U.S.-China security cooperation before Tiananmen, the strategic context in which it took place, and the strategic environment of U.S.-China relations at the present time. He then concludes that the reasons which justified the program of security cooperation with China during the cold war are irrelevant today. Security cooperation and military-to-military relations with China are highly desirable in the strategic environment of the 1990s. China is a major regional power which inevitably will affect U.S. security interests, and the PLA is an extremely important institution within that nation. Additionally, as a member of the U.N. Security Council and one of the five acknowledged nuclear powers, China's actions can influence a wide range of U.S. global interests. In the future, China is likely to be even more powerful and its actions more significant for the United States. Structurally, renewed U.S.-China security cooperation can be modeled on the program of the 1980s. However, the purpose of the high level visits, functional exchanges, and technological cooperation will no longer be to strengthen a strategic alliance against a common enemy, as it was before, but to contribute to stability in an important region of the world and to achieve U.S. global objectives.
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Germany, France and NATO
Maria Alongi Ms. and Peter Schmidt Dr.
U.S. national strategy and U.S. Army doctrine explicitly establish the overwhelming need for, and value of, coalitions and alliances in the post-cold war era. Two generations of U.S. civil officials and military officers have been inculcated with the precept of NATO's importance to security and stability in Europe. Free of the confines of the cold war, competing national interests and different national perceptions have transformed the Alliance. While NATO retains its value to U.S. national interests in Europe, the lack of a common threat now is producing a different Alliance. Clearly, if the Alliance is to survive and remain meaningful, an understanding of NATO and its political subtleties will be essential. To provide a wider understanding of the changed nature of the Alliance, Dr. Peter Schmidt of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Ebenhausen, Germany, examines the current policies of France and Germany, the two largest continental NATO powers, toward NATO. Dr. Schmidt presented this paper in June 1994 to a roundtable sponsored by the American Institute for Contemporary Germany Studies and the Chief of Staff of the Army's Strategic Outreach Program. Approximately two dozen European experts participated in this roundtable ably recorded by Ms Maria Alongi.
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Haiti Strategy: Control, Legitimacy, Sovereignty, Rule of Law, Handoffs, and Exit
Gabriel Marcella Dr.
Now that the armed forces of the United States have entered Haiti, what is the exit strategy? As the United States, the government of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, and the United Nations coalition establish order, it is best to be mindful of the tasks ahead: building a new authority system based on the rule of law, instilling respect for human rights, and developing those values common to democratic communities around the world. The two keys to the success of this strategy will be how Haiti handles the amnesty question and what kind of judicial and police system is developed. The United States should not allow its exit strategy to be determined by the success or failure of the above. In this paper, Professor Gabriel Marcella of the U.S. Army War College proposes an interlocking strategy that emphasizes the achievement of limited objectives by the United States. He contends that our strategy should emphasize the humanitarian dimensions of our assistance rather than pursue the open-ended goal of the restoration of democracy. Such an approach provides the United States greater hope for success and the probability of a dignified exit.
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The Impact of the Media on National Security Policy Decision Making
Douglas V. Johnson Dr.
What is the impact of the media upon national security policy decision making? Do network news personalities exert genuine power over the national command authority? Does the photograph of a mob dragging the body of a dead American soldier through the streets drive policy decisions? If the answers to these questions are "Yes," then the claim made by William Randolph Hearst is correct, and national policy is at the mercy of the media. In asking whether, or to what extent, these questions might be answered in the affirmative, the author of this study has raised as many additional questions. The impact of the Information Age is being felt right now, but what the long-term impact may be requires considerable further study. The mere fact that personal computers are proliferating and with them FAX and E-mail capability does not necessarily mean that we are moving into an age of increased public involvement in government nor that the groups actively interested in foreign affairs will change dramatically. But it might.
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Disaster and Intervention in Sub-Saharan Africa: Learning from Rwanda
Steven Metz Dr.
Rwanda's horrific civil war suggests that human disasters requiring outside intervention will remain common in Sub-Saharan Africa. The American people want a prompt and effective response to human disasters when the United States becomes involved. The Army is taking steps to enhance its demonstrated effectiveness at such operations. Steven Metz examines the policy and strategy implications of violence-induced human disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa with special emphasis on Rwanda. The author argues that our senior military leaders, policymakers and strategists must better understand the African security environment. He also warns that to avoid overtaxing the military, U.S. objectives in African disaster relief must be limited. This combination of limited policy goals and operational efficiency will allow the U.S. military to serve public demands at a minimal cost to its other efforts.
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Energy and Security in Transcaucasia
Stephen J. Blank Dr.
One of the world's enduring regional conflicts is in Nagorno-Karabakh. This war pits local Armenians and their cousins from Armenia against Azerbaidzhan and has enmeshed Russia, Turkey and the Western allies (France, Great Britain, and the United States) in a complex series of regional relationships. The international stakes of this war involve the control over exploration for natural gas and oil and the transhipment of these commodities from Azerbaidzhan to the West. Energy resources represent Azerbaidzhan's primary means of economic modernization and are therefore vital to its economic and political freedom. For Russia and Turkey the question is one of access to enormous amounts of desperately needed hard currency and control over a long-standing area of contention between them. More broadly, Russia's tactics in attempting to impose a peace settlement in the war and to establish control of a large share of the local energy economy represent a recrudescence of the imperial tendencies in Russian policy that are incompatible with democratic reform. Accordingly, this war is overlaid with international rivalries of great scope and of more than regional significance. Western policy here is a sign of U.S. and European intentions to preserve the post-Soviet status quo while Russian policy is no less illustrative of the direction of its political evolution. The Strategic Studies Institute hopes that this study will clarify the links between energy and regional security and that it will enable our readers to assess regional trends and their importance for the United States, its allies, and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
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French Policy Toward NATO: Enhanced Selectivity, Vice Rapprochement
William T. Johnsen Dr. and Thomas-Durell Young Dr.
The authors of this report explain how French policy toward NATO has changed since 1992. Importantly, they discuss how these changes have been effected. However, certain key elements of French external policy have not changed. In effect, therefore, the authors argue that while France may wish to cooperate with NATO, this does not imply that there will be a more cooperative French attitude toward the Alliance.
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Russian Policy and the Korean Crisis
Stephen J. Blank Dr.
North Korea's nuclear program is the greatest current threat to U.S. and Northeast Asian security. The outcome of negotiations over this program will have a tremendous impact on the future of the Korean peninsula and on the vital interests of the United States and neighboring states to North and South Korea: China, Japan, and Russia. Bearing this in mind, the Center for Strategic and International Studies convened a conference on June 28-29, 1994, to consider the crisis surrounding North Korea's nuclear program in its international context. Experts spoke about the program and its impact on the two Koreas and on the neighboring states. Professor Stephen Blank presented this paper on Russian policy with regard to Korea. Dr. Blank relates Moscow's position on the issues of North Korean nuclearization to the broader domestic debate in Russia over security policy, in general, and Asian policy, in particular. He contends that Russia's policy is a function of that broader debate and must be understood in that context.
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Partnership for Peace: Discerning Fact from Fiction
William T. Johnsen Dr. and Thomas-Durell Young Dr.
The authors analyze and assess Partnership for Peace (PfP) from the perspective of the political realities which govern NATO. They counter the critics of PfP with an analysis of its exact provisions. Moreover, by drawing on the Alliance's historical record regarding expansion, they argue that PfP is the best and most realistic means available to resolve the prickly issue of NATO enlargement. The authors do not ignore existing and potential shortcomings in PfP and specify where conceptual, as well as practical, problems will require the Alliance's immediate action.
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U.S. Africa Policy: Some Possible Course Adjustment
Daniel H. Simpson Ambassador
Ambassador Daniel H. Simpson addresses the question of U.S. interests in Africa and past, present, and future U.S. policy toward that continent of more than 50 countries and 800 million people on an analytic basis, followed by clear recommendations. His presentation of U.S. strategic interests in Africa permits clear analysis of the present and logical planning of future policy and actions. His message, in addition to being an introspective examination of U.S. policy, is forward-looking. He seeks to lay the basis for a long-term, sustainable U.S. policy toward Africa based on both solid economic and commercial concerns--Africa as a supplier and a market--and on the real cultural ties that link what is core to America and the people of the African continent.
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Another View of the Revolution in Military Affairs
Jeffrey R. Cooper Mr.
In April 1994, the Army War College and the Strategic Studies Institute hosted the Fifth Annual Strategy Conference. The theme of this year's conference was "The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA): Defining an Army for the 21st Century."
Jeffrey R. Cooper presented the following paper as part of an opening panel which sought to define the RMA. He urges defense planners to determine what strategic--as opposed to operational-- benefits might be derived from the RMA. He contends that making the internal reforms that will be required will be as challenging as coming to terms with the operational and strategic implications of the new technologies. The first requirement is to understand the parameters and dynamics of this particular revolution in military affairs. Mr. Cooper puts the RMA in historical perspective by discussing the relationships among technology, socioeconomic, and political change, and their implications for warfare during the Napoleonic era, the mid-19th century, and World Wars I and II. He argues that, in the past, dramatic technological change affected warfare in different ways. Mr. Cooper warns that by using the RMA to define a "technical legacy" we make three errors. First, such an approach could lead to a fruitless search for a "silver bullet" technology on which to build the RMA. Second, the focus on technology could shift attention away from the critical issues of purpose, strategy, doctrine, operational innovation, and organizational adaptation. Finally, committing the first two errors will compound the problem by wasting very scarce defense resources on new programs and projects which may have little or nothing to do with the strategic situation. Military professionals and defense planners alike need to remind themselves that while technology can provide new capabilities, the strategic equation is not necessarily driven by technological innovation. -
Does Russian Democracy Have a Future?
Stephen J. Blank Dr. and Earl H. Tilford Dr.
In 1854, on the eve of the Crimea campaign, Antoine Henri Jomini wrote, "The Russian Army is a wall which, however far it may retreat, you will always find in front of you." The political unrest and economic disarray that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the disintegration of the Communist Empire have altered, but not crippled, the formidable strength of the Russian military. While the forces of democracy and reform survived the elections of December 1993, the very strong support generated by ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky reminds us that the future of Russia is far from determined. In late January 1994, the Strategic Studies Institute, with the cooperation of the U.S. Army Center of Military History, hosted a Washington roundtable which addressed the impact of the December 1993 elections. Scholars from the Army, academia, and the strategic community met for a day of frank and sometimes spirited discussion. Each scholar was asked to provide a formal paper presenting his or her perspective on this subject. These proceedings are offered because the Strategic Studies Institute believes that Jomini's observations are as valid today as they were 160 years ago.
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Proliferation and Nonproliferation in Ukraine: Implications for European and U.S. Security
Stephen J. Blank Dr.
Limiting nuclear proliferation is a vital goal of U.S. security policy. With this in mind, the Strategic Studies Institute cosponsored a conference at the University of Pittsburgh on March 16-17, 1994 to deal with the issues involved in achieving this objective. An additional U.S. objective is the stabilization of relationships among the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. These two issues come together in Ukraine which, upon achieving independence, found itself in possession of nuclear missiles that were positioned in the former Soviet Union and on Ukraine's territory. Ukraine was reluctant to relinquish control of them for security reasons. This monograph, presented at the conference, seeks to explain why Ukraine originally sought to retain the weapons and then, in 1994, agreed to dismantle them in return for compensation and the very limited security guarantees that exist under the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. The author also examines the nature of Russia's threat to Ukraine and the implications of the new agreement for U.S. policy vis-à-vis Ukraine and Russia.
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Responding to Terrorism across the Technological Spectrum
Bruce Hoffman Dr.
In April 1994, the Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute held its annual Strategy Conference. This year's theme was "The Revolution in Military Affairs: Defining an Army for the 21st Century." Dr. Bruce Hoffman presented this paper as part of a panel examining "New Technologies and New Threats." Terrorism, of course, is not new. Hoffman warns, however, of the changing nature of terrorism. In the past, terrorists have been motivated by limited political and ideological objectives. Popular images fostered by terrorist events like the bombing of PAN AM Flight 103 and the attack on the Marine Barracks in Beirut notwithstanding, in the past the preponderance of terrorist attacks targeted specific individuals or small groups. The weapons of choice were the pistol, knife, and, on occasion, dynamite. Often the terrorist was a highly-trained individual, a "professional" in pursuit of specific political or ideological objectives. Hoffman warns that, by comparison, the terrorists of today and tomorrow are amateurs. Furthermore, they are likely to act from religious and racial convictions rather than radical political or ideological motivations. Their objective may be to kill large numbers of people. Indeed, they may want to annihilate an entire race or religious group. Not only are these amateurs less predictable and, therefore, more difficult to apprehend before the incident occurs, they have at their disposal lethal devices that range from the relatively simple fertilizer bomb to biologically-altered viruses. Military professionals and civilian planners must contend with warfare at every level. The threat posed by the changing nature of terrorism falls very much within their purview.
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Russia's New Doctrine: Two Views
James F. Holcomb Colonel and Michael M. Boll Dr.
The future direction of Russian security and defense policies is a fundamental issue in contemporary world politics. Future Russian policies will have a major impact on all nuclear issues; on bilateral relations with the United States; and on European, Middle Eastern, Central Asian, and Far Eastern security. One primary indicator of the direction of Russian policies is the new Defense Doctrine published in November 1993. This document has aroused much controversy and diverging assessments as to its significance. However, since it encompasses all the major issues in Russia's security and defense agenda, it is a major statement that is crucial to any understanding of Russian trends and policies. Because of the controversy over Russian doctrine, the Strategic Studies Institute, as part of its ongoing coverage of Russian defense and security policies, presents here two very different assessments of that doctrine to contribute to the debate over its meaning. The Institute is not offering an official interpretation of the new doctrine. While both authors work for the Defense Department, they differ in their assessments and are expressing only their personal opinions, not those of any government agency.
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The New Russia in the New Asia
Stephen J. Blank Dr.
This monograph offers an account of the current struggle inside Russia over Asian policy and of the direction of that struggle. The author describes the dominant Russian viewpoints on policy in Asia. Current proponents of an Asian policy based primarily upon military considerations seem to hold sway. Advocates of this approach downplay economic integration with Asia, view other states mainly in terms of threat, favor an alliance with China rather than merely friendly relations, openly take a hard line with Japan, and minimize the threat of North Korean nuclear proliferation. Should this view prevail, Russian cooperation with Washington will be difficult, tensions with Japan will remain (if not grow), and Russia's efforts to become a democratic and economically competitive player will be impeded. Since Asia is the most dynamic sector of the global economy, Russian developments, insofar as they affect this region, have a deep significance for the future of Russia and Asian international affairs and security.
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The Revolution in Military Affairs and Conflict Short of War
James Kievit LTC and Steven Metz Dr.
The authors concede that the revolution in military affairs holds great promise for conventional, combined-arms warfare, but conclude that its potential value in conflict short of war, whether terrorism, insurgency, or violence associated with narcotrafficking, is not so clear-cut. Given this, national leaders and strategists should proceed cautiously and only after a full exploration of the ethical, political, and social implications of their decisions. To illustrate this, the authors develop a hypothetical future scenario--a "history" of U.S. efforts in conflict short of war during the first decade of the 21st century. It is too early to offer concrete policy prescriptions for adapting many aspects of the revolution in military affairs to conflict short of war, but the authors do suggest an array of questions that should be debated. In order to decide whether to apply new technology and emerging concepts or how to employ them, the United States must first reach consensus on ultimate objectives and acceptable costs.
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Two Historians in Technology and War
John F. Guilmartin Dr. and Michael Howard Sir
In April 1994, the Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute held its annual Strategy Conference. The theme for this year's conference was "The Revolution in Military Affairs: Defining an Army for the 21st Century." Sir Michael and Professor Guilmartin are historians who have experienced warfare; indeed, have distinguished themselves in combat. Sir Michael Howard served in the Coldstream Guards in Italy in the Second World War. Dr. Guilmartin served two tours as a U.S. Air Force rescue helicopter pilot in Vietnam. Their personal experience with warfare is expressed eloquently in the following pages as they make the point that war is, as Carl von Clausewitz defined it nearly 200 years ago, a distinctly human endeavor. Because the Revolution in Military Affairs makes warfare all the more complex and changeable, one would be well advised to heed another of Clausewitz's admonitions, "The use of force is in no way incompatible with the simultaneous use of the intellect."
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Nuclear Threats from Small States
Jerome H. Kahan Mr.
That are the policy implications regarding proliferation and counterproliferation of nuclear weapons among Third World states? How does deterrence operate outside the parameters of superpower confrontation as defined by the cold war's elaborate system of constraints enforced by concepts like mutual assured destruction, and counter-value and counter-force targeting? How can U.S. policymakers devise contingencies for dealing with nuclear threats posed by countries like North Korea, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and Syria? These are some of the unsettling but nevertheless important questions addressed by the author. Mr. Jerome Kahan examines the likelihood that one or more of these countries will use nuclear weapons before the year 2000. He also offers a framework that policymakers and planners might use in assessing U.S. interests in preempting the use of nuclear weapons or in retaliating for their use. Ironically, with the end of the cold war, it is imperative that defense strategists, policymakers, and military professionals think about the "unthinkable."
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