Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Afghanistan: Reconstituting a Collapsed State

Raymond A. Millen LTC

LTC Raymond A. Millen examines warlordism as the principal impediment to Afghanistan's revival and offers a shift in strategy that addresses the war of ideas, the counternarcotics initiative, and the incorporation of the Afghan National Army into the provincial reconstruction teams. As Lieutenant Colonel Millen observes, all the resources are in place; they simply need a shift in focus. LTC Millen takes into account the historical, cultural, and economic factors that impede central authority and the eforms needed for modern states. His problem-solving approach is insightful, pragmatic, and innovative.
American Grand Strategy After 9/11: An Assessment

Stephen D. Biddle Dr.

In the three years since 9-11, the Administration has yet to arrive at a clear definition of the enemy or the aim in the War on Terrorism; to date, American policy has combined ambitious public statements with ambiguity on critical particulars. Heretofore, the costs of pursuing such ambitious but ill-defined goals have been high but tolerable. The ongoing insurgency in Iraq, however, is increasing the costs of grand strategic ambiguity to the point where fundamental choices can no longer be deferred. There are two broad alternatives for resolving these ambiguities and creating a coherent and logically sufficient grand strategy: rollback and containment. Rollback would retain the ambitious goals implicit in today's declaratory policy and accept the cost and near-term risk inherent in pursuing them. Containment would settle for more modest goals in exchange for lower costs and lower near-term risks. Neither alternative dominates the other on analytical grounds – both involve serious costs as well as benefits. Most important, the choice between them turns on a series of basic value judgments on the acceptability of risk, the relationship between near-term and long-term risk, and the ultimate degree of security the Nation should seek.
The Transatlantic Defense Industrial Base: Restructuring Scenarios and Their Implications

Terrence R. Guay Dr.

Opportunities for the construction of a transatlantic defense sector are tangible, but significant obstacles may accelerate the formation of a bipolar industrial base. While market forces played a key role in the transformation and consolidation of these sectors in recent years, political considerations are largely responsible for a restructuring process that has been almost entirely among U.S. firms in the United States and among European Union companies in Europe. In this monograph, Dr. Terrence Guay examines the forces that have shaped the restructuring of the U.S. and European defense industries since the end of the Cold War, and presents factors that will influence further restructuring and consolidation in the short- and medium-terms. He contends that a transatlantic defense industrial base is preferable to a bipolar one, and recommends that the U.S. Government open its defense equipment market to more European firms, and that European governments reciprocate. Additionally, military forces should put greater effort into coordinating procurement requirements and needs, and firms should explore expanding transatlantic links.
Transformation and Strategic Surprise

Colin S. Gray Dr.

The current process of military transformation will enable the Armed Forces to do better what they already do superbly well. It is important to excel at decisive maneuver and in the application of precise, yet overwhelming firepower. But those attributes, though key in warfare against regular enemies, tend to be less valuable in conflict with irregulars. In war after war, the United States has been surprised by the poor political reward it has earned for its military effort. The IT-led transformation will do nothing to help correct the persisting American difficulty in functioning strategically and politically in its conduct of war. The author develops a cumulative seven-point argument.
Saudi Arabia: Islamic Threat, Political Reform, and the Global War on Terror

Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr.

This monograph examines the convergence of the war on terror on Saudi soil, calls for and modest programs of political reform, and heightened post-9/11 tensions with the United States. Saudi Arabia has been condemned for its Wahhabist version of Islam, and linked to the growth of salafist extremism operating locally, regionally, and internationally. This monograph more clearly defines the background and nature of today's Islamic threat in Saudi Arabia, and argues for continuing counter- and anti-terrorist measures but also for political reform and development.
Street Gangs: The New Urban Insurgency

Max G. Manwaring Dr.

The primary thrust of this monograph is to explain the linkage of contemporary criminal street gangs (that is, the gang phenomenon or third generation gangs) to insurgency in terms of the instability it wreaks upon government and the concomitant challenge to state sovereignty. Although there are differences between gangs and insurgents regarding motives and modes of operations, this linkage infers that gang phenomena are mutated forms of urban insurgency. In these terms, these "new" nonstate actors must eventually seize political power in order to guarantee the freedom of action and the commercial environment they want. The common denominator that clearly links the gang phenomenon to insurgency is that the third generation gangs' and insurgents' ultimate objective is to depose or control the governments of targeted countries. As a consequence, the "Duck Analogy" applies. Third generation gangs look like ducks, walk like ducks, and act like ducks—a peculiar breed, but ducks nevertheless! This monograph concludes with recommendations for the United States and other countries to focus security and assistance responses at the strategic level. The intent is to help leaders achieve strategic clarity and operate more effectively in the complex politically dominated, contemporary global security arena.
Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq

W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

In the post-Saddam era, differences among Iraqi ethnic and religious groups will either emerge as a barrier to political cooperation and national unity, or they will instead be mitigated as part of the struggle to define a new and more inclusive system of government. Should Iraqi ethnic and sectarian differences become unmanageable, a violent struggle for political power may ensue. This study does not predict an ethnic or sectarian civil war in Iraq except as a worst case, which must be analyzed and considered. If Iraqi violence erupts along religious/sectarian and ethnic lines, this conflict will have thunderous echoes throughout the area. Group identity, which is critical throughout much of the Middle East, will provide a compelling context for regional bystanders watching ethnic and sectarian bloodshed. Moreover, various nations would involve themselves in the fighting in ways up to and including the possibility of military intervention. Additionally, inter-communal harmony and tolerance in other regional states may suffer as the result of Iraqi fighting and the responses of neighboring governments to that fighting. The danger of an Iraqi civil war requires serious U.S. cooperation with those regional states that also have a stake in preventing this outcome.
The U.S.-India Relationship: Strategic Partnership or Complementary Interests?

Amit Gupta Dr.

This monograph examines the U.S.-India security relationship and argues that significant differences in their worldviews precludes the development of a strong strategic relationship at present. However, India's continued economic and military growth, as well as its ongoing commitment towards secularism and democracy, makes it a future ally towards establishing strategic stability in Asia and in assisting future nation-building efforts across the globe. In the short run, therefore, the relationship should be based on securing complementary interests: ensuring stability in the Indian Ocean; promoting secularism and democracy across the world; and getting the Indian government to work proactively to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their associated systems.
Insurgency in Iraq: An Historical Perspective

Ian F.W. Beckett Dr.

The continuing proliferation of insurgent organizations suggests that insurgency is still widely perceived as an effective means either of achieving power and influence, or of bringing a cause to the notice of an international or national community. The end of European decolonization and the collapse of the Soviet Union together removed the motivational impulse for much conflict between the late 1940s and the late 1980s. However, new ideological, political, and commercial imperatives are now encouraging intrastate conflict and insurgency amid the breakdown of the international bipolar political system and the emergence of identity politics and of many more nonstate actors. This monograph considers the patterns of insurgency in the past by way of establishing how much the conflict in Iraq conforms to previous experience. In particular, the author compares and contrasts Iraq with previous Middle Eastern insurgencies such as those in Palestine, Aden, the Dhofar province of Oman, Algeria, and Lebanon. He suggests that there is much that can be learned from British, French, and Israeli experience.
The Impact of Missile Threats on the Reliability of U.S. Overseas Bases: A Framework for Analysis

Joel Wuthnow Mr.

Although the United States will continue to utilize overseas military bases in the next decade, the acquisition and improvement of long-range missiles by several potential aggressors will pose new operational and strategic problems for U.S. forces. Several states will likely attain a credible capability to threaten U.S. bases within their respective regions, despite the sophistication of U.S. missile defenses. Strategically, there are uncertainties about whether the United States can deter some of these new missile-capable actors. Deterrence problems will create new risks to U.S. deployed forces: if deterrence fails, U.S. troops will be at a higher level of exposure. Alternately, missiles will grant states some leverage to dissaude the United States from actually using overseas forces, as well as a means to coerce host states into denying access to the United States. Though several factors will mitigate these concerns, the question remains: How reliable will alliance-derived "tripwires" and other deployments be in the overall U.S. strategy of engagement? Alterations in force structure, tailored to these threats, will likely be needed.
Deception 101--Primer on Deception

Joseph W. Caddell Dr.

The author reviews the basic concepts related to "deception." Dr. Joseph Caddell defines terms, provides historical examples, and discusses problems associated with deception. He provides a general overview, a "primer" which is not directed at those who already possess a working knowledge of deception operations. Nevertheless, given the complex and everchanging nature of deception in the political-military environment, it may serve as a useful reminder of the basic assumptions and methods concerning the subject.
U.S.-Ukraine Military Relations and the Value of Interoperability

Leonid I. Polyakov Mr.

Ukraine's destiny is critical to the security of the entire post-Soviet zone. It long has been the stated goal of Ukrainian defense policy to integrate with Euro-Atlantic structures like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and this goal has been one of the chief objectives of the United States, as well. However, to move from rhetoric to implementation is particularly difficult where the defense reform of a post-Soviet state has been concerned, and Ukraine is no exception. Ukraine has begun to make remarkable progress towards its self-professed goal of defense integration with Western structures. This monograph provides a comprehensive account of Ukrainian-American defense relations and of Ukraine's defense reforms over the period since Ukraine became independent in 1991. It clearly points out both the obstacles and the successes that both partners have encountered in building a cooperation mechanism, in practical peacetime engagement, and in accomplishing missions together, as well as outlining the challenges ahead. Given that Ukraine is a major contributor to the stabilization forces in Iraq and a key player in any European and Eurasian security order, this monograph has real policy relevance, especially as the United States seeks to work with its allies and partners in other post-Soviet states to foster their defense and political integration with the West.
Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice

Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice is the first critical history of the intellectual roots and actual application of the strategic doctrine of nuclear mutual assured destruction or MAD. Written by the world's leading French, British, and American military policy planners and analysts, this volume examines how MAD and its emphasis on the military targeting of population centers influenced the operational plans of the major nuclear powers and states, such as Pakistan, India, and Israel. Given America's efforts to move away from MAD and the continued reliance on MAD thinking by smaller nations to help justify further nuclear proliferation, Getting MAD is a timely must reading for anyone eager to understand our nuclear past and future.
Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice

Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice is the first critical history of the intellectual roots and actual application of the strategic doctrine of nuclear mutual assured destruction or MAD. Written by the world's leading French, British, and American military policy planners and analysts, this volume examines how MAD and its emphasis on the military targeting of population centers influenced the operational plans of the major nuclear powers and states, such as Pakistan, India, and Israel. Given America's efforts to move away from MAD and the continued reliance on MAD thinking by smaller nations to help justify further nuclear proliferation, Getting MAD is a timely must reading for anyone eager to understand our nuclear past and future.
Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 21st Century: Reconceputalizing Threat and Response

Steven Metz Dr. and Raymond A. Millen LTC

Modern insurgency warfare presents fresh challenges for the United States, which must re-conceptualize its approach to fighting such conflicts. Because the dominant characteristics of insurgency--protractedness and ambiguity--effectively stymie the American military's approach to war, the United States needs to reorient its strategic thinking. The key to success is not for the U.S. military to become better at counterinsurgency, but for the U.S. military (and other elements of the government) to be skilled at helping local security and intelligence forces become effective at it. Adapting tactics and strategies to the realities on the ground is the not only pragmatic, but also crucial to success.
Islamic Rulings on Warfare

Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr. and Youssef H. Aboul-Enein LTCDR

The global war on terror (GWOT) and the battles with specific Islamist groups is, to some degree, a war of ideas. With a better understanding of Islamic concepts of war, peace, and Muslim relations with non-Muslims, those fighting the GWOT may gain support and increase their efficacy. The authors explain the principles of jihad and war and their conduct as found in key Islamic texts, the controversies that have emerged from the Quranic verses of war and peace, and the conflict between liberal or moderate Islamic voices and the extremists on matters such as the definition of combatants, treatment of hostages, and suicide attacks.
Shadows of Things Past and Images of the Future: Lessons for the Insurgencies in Our Midst

Max G. Manwaring Dr.

This monograph begins with a short discussion of contemporary insurgency. It makes the argument that, in studying terror war, guerrilla war, or any other common term for insurgency war, we find these expressions mischaracterize the activities of armed groups that are attempting to gain political control of a nation-state. The fact is that these organizations are engaged in a highly complex political-psychological war. Three key harbinger cases from which the first contemporary lessons of modern insurgency should have been learned provide the basis for the argument--Peru (1962 to date), Italy (1968-82), and Argentina (1969-79). Given that these kinds of conflict--or mutations--are likely to continue to challenge U.S. and other global leadership over the next several years, it is important to understand them. In this connection, it is also important to understand that the final results of insurgency or counterinsurgency are never determined by arms alone. Rather, a successful counterinsurgency depends on a holistic process that relies on civilian and military agencies and contingents working together in an integrated fashion to achieve a mutually agreed political-strategic end game.
Civil-Military Cooperation in Peace Operations: The Case of Kosovo

Thomas R. Mockaitis Dr.

The humanitarian intervention in Kosovo provides an excellent case study of civil-military cooperation (CIMIC) in peace operations. The intervention required 40,000 heavily armed combat troops from NATO and Partnership for Peace countries to provide security and coordinate relief efforts with the UN, the OSCE, and over 500 humanitarian organizations. CIMIC provided the mechanism for such cooperation and support. Like any concept employed in coalition warfare, CIMIC varied widely in the quality of its application. This study examines the effectiveness of CIMIC within each brigade area and throughout the province as a whole. It identifies best practices and common mistakes to derive lessons that might inform the conduct of future missions, such as those currently underway in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Current and Future Challenges for Asian Nonproliferation Export Controls: A Regional Response

Scott A. Jones Dr.

As Asia develops into a clearly demarcated economic "region," it is confronted by similar export control challenges as those faced in Europe with the advent of the Common Market. As such, a regional system of export control standards and practices emerged as a means to ensure not only economic parity, but regional and international security as well. While not necessarily as advanced in terms of regional identity as the European free trade area, the states of Asia could benefit profitably from a regional approach to export control development and coordination. In addition, the states of Asia could also gain from increased export control cooperation with the United States. As a global leader in nonproliferation, the United States can provide critical assistance to export control development efforts through training and the allocation of other resources. Likewise, the United States should focus its export control outreach efforts to the less developed export control systems in Asia, especially the transshipment countries.
A Nation at War in an Era of Strategic Change

Williamson Murray Dr.

The President, Secretary of Defense, and the Army's Chief of Staff have all stated that the United States is a "Nation at War." The U.S. military faces significant strategic challenges as it continues to transform the force and improve interagency integration into joint operations, all the while engaging in active combat operations associated with the Global War on Terrorism. This collection of outstanding essays--three of which won prestigious writing awards--by the students enrolled in the Army War College's Advanced Strategic Art Program (ASAP) highlight some of these strategic challenges and offer thoughtful solutions. They provide insights that will undoubtedly prove useful to decisionmakers at the highest levels of our national security establishment. ASAP graduates continue to make their mark as outstanding theater strategists in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff and Army Staff, and in the Combatant Commands.
A Nation at War in an Era of Strategic Change

Williamson Murray Dr.

The President, Secretary of Defense, and the Army's Chief of Staff have all stated that the United States is a "Nation at War." The U.S. military faces significant strategic challenges as it continues to transform the force and improve interagency integration into joint operations, all the while engaging in active combat operations associated with the Global War on Terrorism. This collection of outstanding essays--three of which won prestigious writing awards--by the students enrolled in the Army War College's Advanced Strategic Art Program (ASAP) highlight some of these strategic challenges and offer thoughtful solutions. They provide insights that will undoubtedly prove useful to decisionmakers at the highest levels of our national security establishment. ASAP graduates continue to make their mark as outstanding theater strategists in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff and Army Staff, and in the Combatant Commands.
Civil-Military Change in China: Elites, Institutes, and Ideas After the 16th Party Congress

Andrew Scobell Dr. and Larry M. Wortzel Dr.

In November 2002, the Chinese Communist Party held its 16th Congress and formally initiated a sweeping turnover of senior leaders in both the Party and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The meeting heralded not merely a new set of personalities in positions of political and military power, but also the emergence of a new generation of leaders. Who are these individuals, and what does their rise mean for the future of China and its military? China matters to the United States because of its size, its spectacular patterns of growth, its profound problems linked to rapid growth, and its military intentions. Facts and trends are examined to explain the divisions and cohesions in the Chinese leadership and their potential significance to the United States and the rest of the world. Also examined is how Chinese policies have evolved over the years, and how important the United States has been in influencing China's strategy. What, for instance, will the emerging leadership with its factious differences do about Taiwan and North Korea?
Civil-Military Change in China: Elites, Institutes, and Ideas After the 16th Party Congress

Andrew Scobell Dr. and Larry M. Wortzel Dr.

In November 2002, the Chinese Communist Party held its 16th Congress and formally initiated a sweeping turnover of senior leaders in both the Party and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The meeting heralded not merely a new set of personalities in positions of political and military power, but also the emergence of a new generation of leaders. Who are these individuals, and what does their rise mean for the future of China and its military? China matters to the United States because of its size, its spectacular patterns of growth, its profound problems linked to rapid growth, and its military intentions. Facts and trends are examined to explain the divisions and cohesions in the Chinese leadership and their potential significance to the United States and the rest of the world. Also examined is how Chinese policies have evolved over the years, and how important the United States has been in influencing China's strategy. What, for instance, will the emerging leadership with its factious differences do about Taiwan and North Korea?
Britain's Role in U.S. Missile Defense

Jeremy Stocker Dr.

America's European allies, especially Britain, have frequently been concerned by the wider implications of U.S. repeated efforts to develop and deploy missile defense. The United Kingdom is host to one of three Ballistic Missile Early Warning Stations (BMEWS) and to the European ground station for the Space-Based Infra-Red System (SBIRS), both vital elements in U.S. missile defense architecture. Britain also has a long record of technological cooperation in missile defense. Britons do not share American concerns about North Korea, and are not prepared to view China as a long-term strategic competitor requiring a BMD response. The UK is progressively shedding many of its previous concerns about the wider consequences of missile defense deployment and gaining a better appreciation of the advantages of collaboration in both the policy and technical fields. For America's part, an understanding of the UK's stance and a willingness to engage in honest and forthright consultation are essential if the United States is to maximize the advantages of international cooperation in missile defense and avoid some of its penalties. Despite a recent focus on events in Iraq, missile defense remains a vital issue in U.S.-British relations and a subject of considerable intrinsic importance. Both countries need to better understand each other's policies and concerns, and cooperate in providing effective and appropriate defense capabilities.
Developing Adaptive Leaders: The Crucible Experience of Operation Iraqi Freedom

Leonard Wong Dr.

The author examines the Operation IRAQI FREEDOM environment and concludes that the complexity, unpredictability, and ambiguity of postwar Iraq is producing a cohort of innovative, confident, and adaptable junior officers. They are learning to make decisions in chaotic conditions and to be mentally agile in executing counterinsurgency and nation-building operations simultaneously. As a result, the Army will soon have a cohort of company grade officers who are accustomed to operating independently, taking the initiative, and adapting to changes. The author warns that the Army must now acknowledge and encourage this newly developed adaptability in our junior officers or risk stifling the innovation critically needed in the Army's future leaders.