Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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  North Korea's Strategic Intentions

  Andrew Scobell Dr.

  Dr. Andrew Scobell examines the topic of Pyongyang's strategic intentions. He first identifies a broad spectrum of expert views and distills this wisdom into three "packages" of possible strategic intentions. He then sets out to test which package appears to reflect actual North Korean policy. While he opines that one is more likely than the others, he concludes that it is impossible to say with certainty which package most closely resembles reality. As a result, he suggests that further probing of Pyongyang's intentions is advisable.

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  Sustainability of Colombian Military/Strategic Support for "Democratic Security"

  Thomas A. Marks Dr.

  For the first time in 40 years, cautious optimism pervades discussions of Bogota's seemingly intractable situation. Drugs, terrorism, and insurgency continue in their explosive mix, but the current government of President Alvaro Uribe has fashioned a counterinsurgency approach that holds the strategic initiative and has a chance of negating a long-standing security threat to the state. Colombia has become synonymous in the popular mind with an intractable war waged against narco-terrorists. Not as understood is the strategic setting, wherein the illegal drug trade is not just linked to terrorism but rather is an integral part of a left-wing insurgency that continues to talk the language of the Cold War. This insurgency is the greatest threat to Bogota and to Washington's interests in the region. Thus it is of particular moment to see an indigenously generated response succeed in turning the tide. What has been particularly remarkable has been a military reform movement engineered by Colombian officers committed to strengthening military professionalism and accountability to civilian authority.

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  U.S. Defense Strategy After Saddam

  Michael E. O'Hanlon Dr.

  In this defense strategy and budget book, Michael O'Hanlon argues that America's large defense budget cannot be pared realistically in the years ahead. But given the extreme demands of the Iraq mission, particularly on the U.S. Army and Marine Corps, he suggests how reductions in various weapons modernization programs and other economies might free up enough funds to add at least 40,000 more ground troops to today's military. He also reviews the military lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq, the Bush administration's new overseas basing plan, and the arguments for and against a draft. O'Hanlon also addresses the important question of how the United States might encourage and help other countries to share more of the global military burden in areas such as Africa. Finally, he sketches several possible new conflict scenarios that could occupy the American military--or at least its force planners--in the years and decades ahead.

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  Who Stays and Who Goes: Army Enlisted Reserve and National Guard Retention

  Clayton K. S. Chun Dr.

  The U.S. Army faces global challenges that have required it to use its reserve components in a manner unseen since World War II and the Korean War. Today, there are many questions and concerns about the future of the Army Reserve and National Guard due to the unprecedented, continued mobilization of these reserve components and problems involving retention. Without adequate retention of personnel, valuable experience and unit readiness is at risk. The Army would have to spend its limited resources to replace many seasoned Soldiers with junior personnel or use more contractors that may not be as effective or efficient.

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  Budget Policy, Deficits, and Defense: A Fiscal Framework for Defense Planning

  Dennis S. Ippolito Dr.

  The author focuses on the spending policy, deficit and debt, and retirement and healthcare entitlement dynamics that will make it difficult, if not impossible, to fund current defense plans. Transformational strategies, he concludes, must be adjusted to lower and more volatile future spending levels. The most important adjustment is to shift spending priorities to readiness and traditional modernization needs that are more urgent in terms of capabilities than transformational technologies, as well as more predictable and controllable in terms of costs.

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  Pseudo Operations and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Other Countries

  Lawrence E. Cline Dr.

  The author examines the role of pseudo operations in several foreign counterinsurgency campaigns. Pseudo operations are those in which government forces disguised as guerrillas, normally along with guerrilla defectors, operate as teams to infiltrate insurgent areas. This technique has been used by the security forces of several other countries in their operations, and typically it has been very successful. A number of factors must be taken into account before attempting pseudo operations, especially their role in the intelligence and operational systems. Although it is likely that most insurgent movements have become more sophisticated, many of the lessons learned from previous pseudo operations suggest their continued usefulness in counterinsurgency campaigns.

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  The Strategic Implications of the Rise of Populism in Europe and South America

  Steve C. Ropp Dr.

  This monograph takes a fresh look at the contemporary populist phenomenon in Europe and the Americas. It describes populism, discusses the global context in which it is emerging, and then paints a picture of its general characteristics in four sub-regions in Europe and South America. It concludes with four recommendations for strategic planners as to how best to deal with it and with its potential consequences.

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  U.S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America

  R. Evan Ellis Dr.

  Ultimately, this monograph argues that increasing Chinese engagement with Latin America will make the nation both a powerful competitor and a potential partner for the United States in the Western Hemisphere. On one hand, China with major investments in Latin America and dependence on its material flows is likely to be a nation interested in reducing political instability, armed groups, and criminal activity in the region—rather than fueling radical populism and insurgency. On the other hand, the United States needs to consider to what degree it is willing to accept a China that has increasing leverage in its strategic neighborhood and its major trading area. Investment and trade presence leads to growing interest in the political course of the region, and now is the time for the United States to begin to consider how to constructively engage the Chinese in the Western Hemisphere.

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  Afghanistan: Reconstituting a Collapsed State

  Raymond A. Millen LTC

  LTC Raymond A. Millen examines warlordism as the principal impediment to Afghanistan's revival and offers a shift in strategy that addresses the war of ideas, the counternarcotics initiative, and the incorporation of the Afghan National Army into the provincial reconstruction teams. As Lieutenant Colonel Millen observes, all the resources are in place; they simply need a shift in focus. LTC Millen takes into account the historical, cultural, and economic factors that impede central authority and the eforms needed for modern states. His problem-solving approach is insightful, pragmatic, and innovative.

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  American Grand Strategy After 9/11: An Assessment

  Stephen D. Biddle Dr.

  In the three years since 9-11, the Administration has yet to arrive at a clear definition of the enemy or the aim in the War on Terrorism; to date, American policy has combined ambitious public statements with ambiguity on critical particulars. Heretofore, the costs of pursuing such ambitious but ill-defined goals have been high but tolerable. The ongoing insurgency in Iraq, however, is increasing the costs of grand strategic ambiguity to the point where fundamental choices can no longer be deferred. There are two broad alternatives for resolving these ambiguities and creating a coherent and logically sufficient grand strategy: rollback and containment. Rollback would retain the ambitious goals implicit in today's declaratory policy and accept the cost and near-term risk inherent in pursuing them. Containment would settle for more modest goals in exchange for lower costs and lower near-term risks. Neither alternative dominates the other on analytical grounds – both involve serious costs as well as benefits. Most important, the choice between them turns on a series of basic value judgments on the acceptability of risk, the relationship between near-term and long-term risk, and the ultimate degree of security the Nation should seek.

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  The Transatlantic Defense Industrial Base: Restructuring Scenarios and Their Implications

  Terrence R. Guay Dr.

  Opportunities for the construction of a transatlantic defense sector are tangible, but significant obstacles may accelerate the formation of a bipolar industrial base. While market forces played a key role in the transformation and consolidation of these sectors in recent years, political considerations are largely responsible for a restructuring process that has been almost entirely among U.S. firms in the United States and among European Union companies in Europe. In this monograph, Dr. Terrence Guay examines the forces that have shaped the restructuring of the U.S. and European defense industries since the end of the Cold War, and presents factors that will influence further restructuring and consolidation in the short- and medium-terms. He contends that a transatlantic defense industrial base is preferable to a bipolar one, and recommends that the U.S. Government open its defense equipment market to more European firms, and that European governments reciprocate. Additionally, military forces should put greater effort into coordinating procurement requirements and needs, and firms should explore expanding transatlantic links.

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  Transformation and Strategic Surprise

  Colin S. Gray Dr.

  The current process of military transformation will enable the Armed Forces to do better what they already do superbly well. It is important to excel at decisive maneuver and in the application of precise, yet overwhelming firepower. But those attributes, though key in warfare against regular enemies, tend to be less valuable in conflict with irregulars. In war after war, the United States has been surprised by the poor political reward it has earned for its military effort. The IT-led transformation will do nothing to help correct the persisting American difficulty in functioning strategically and politically in its conduct of war. The author develops a cumulative seven-point argument.

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  Saudi Arabia: Islamic Threat, Political Reform, and the Global War on Terror

  Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr.

  This monograph examines the convergence of the war on terror on Saudi soil, calls for and modest programs of political reform, and heightened post-9/11 tensions with the United States. Saudi Arabia has been condemned for its Wahhabist version of Islam, and linked to the growth of salafist extremism operating locally, regionally, and internationally. This monograph more clearly defines the background and nature of today's Islamic threat in Saudi Arabia, and argues for continuing counter- and anti-terrorist measures but also for political reform and development.

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  Street Gangs: The New Urban Insurgency

  Max G. Manwaring Dr.

  The primary thrust of this monograph is to explain the linkage of contemporary criminal street gangs (that is, the gang phenomenon or third generation gangs) to insurgency in terms of the instability it wreaks upon government and the concomitant challenge to state sovereignty. Although there are differences between gangs and insurgents regarding motives and modes of operations, this linkage infers that gang phenomena are mutated forms of urban insurgency. In these terms, these "new" nonstate actors must eventually seize political power in order to guarantee the freedom of action and the commercial environment they want. The common denominator that clearly links the gang phenomenon to insurgency is that the third generation gangs' and insurgents' ultimate objective is to depose or control the governments of targeted countries. As a consequence, the "Duck Analogy" applies. Third generation gangs look like ducks, walk like ducks, and act like ducks—a peculiar breed, but ducks nevertheless! This monograph concludes with recommendations for the United States and other countries to focus security and assistance responses at the strategic level. The intent is to help leaders achieve strategic clarity and operate more effectively in the complex politically dominated, contemporary global security arena.

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  Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq

  W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

  In the post-Saddam era, differences among Iraqi ethnic and religious groups will either emerge as a barrier to political cooperation and national unity, or they will instead be mitigated as part of the struggle to define a new and more inclusive system of government. Should Iraqi ethnic and sectarian differences become unmanageable, a violent struggle for political power may ensue. This study does not predict an ethnic or sectarian civil war in Iraq except as a worst case, which must be analyzed and considered. If Iraqi violence erupts along religious/sectarian and ethnic lines, this conflict will have thunderous echoes throughout the area. Group identity, which is critical throughout much of the Middle East, will provide a compelling context for regional bystanders watching ethnic and sectarian bloodshed. Moreover, various nations would involve themselves in the fighting in ways up to and including the possibility of military intervention. Additionally, inter-communal harmony and tolerance in other regional states may suffer as the result of Iraqi fighting and the responses of neighboring governments to that fighting. The danger of an Iraqi civil war requires serious U.S. cooperation with those regional states that also have a stake in preventing this outcome.

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  The U.S.-India Relationship: Strategic Partnership or Complementary Interests?

  Amit Gupta Dr.

  This monograph examines the U.S.-India security relationship and argues that significant differences in their worldviews precludes the development of a strong strategic relationship at present. However, India's continued economic and military growth, as well as its ongoing commitment towards secularism and democracy, makes it a future ally towards establishing strategic stability in Asia and in assisting future nation-building efforts across the globe. In the short run, therefore, the relationship should be based on securing complementary interests: ensuring stability in the Indian Ocean; promoting secularism and democracy across the world; and getting the Indian government to work proactively to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their associated systems.

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  Insurgency in Iraq: An Historical Perspective

  Ian F.W. Beckett Dr.

  The continuing proliferation of insurgent organizations suggests that insurgency is still widely perceived as an effective means either of achieving power and influence, or of bringing a cause to the notice of an international or national community. The end of European decolonization and the collapse of the Soviet Union together removed the motivational impulse for much conflict between the late 1940s and the late 1980s. However, new ideological, political, and commercial imperatives are now encouraging intrastate conflict and insurgency amid the breakdown of the international bipolar political system and the emergence of identity politics and of many more nonstate actors. This monograph considers the patterns of insurgency in the past by way of establishing how much the conflict in Iraq conforms to previous experience. In particular, the author compares and contrasts Iraq with previous Middle Eastern insurgencies such as those in Palestine, Aden, the Dhofar province of Oman, Algeria, and Lebanon. He suggests that there is much that can be learned from British, French, and Israeli experience.

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  The Impact of Missile Threats on the Reliability of U.S. Overseas Bases: A Framework for Analysis

  Joel Wuthnow Mr.

  Although the United States will continue to utilize overseas military bases in the next decade, the acquisition and improvement of long-range missiles by several potential aggressors will pose new operational and strategic problems for U.S. forces. Several states will likely attain a credible capability to threaten U.S. bases within their respective regions, despite the sophistication of U.S. missile defenses. Strategically, there are uncertainties about whether the United States can deter some of these new missile-capable actors. Deterrence problems will create new risks to U.S. deployed forces: if deterrence fails, U.S. troops will be at a higher level of exposure. Alternately, missiles will grant states some leverage to dissaude the United States from actually using overseas forces, as well as a means to coerce host states into denying access to the United States. Though several factors will mitigate these concerns, the question remains: How reliable will alliance-derived "tripwires" and other deployments be in the overall U.S. strategy of engagement? Alterations in force structure, tailored to these threats, will likely be needed.

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  Deception 101--Primer on Deception

  Joseph W. Caddell Dr.

  The author reviews the basic concepts related to "deception." Dr. Joseph Caddell defines terms, provides historical examples, and discusses problems associated with deception. He provides a general overview, a "primer" which is not directed at those who already possess a working knowledge of deception operations. Nevertheless, given the complex and everchanging nature of deception in the political-military environment, it may serve as a useful reminder of the basic assumptions and methods concerning the subject.

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  U.S.-Ukraine Military Relations and the Value of Interoperability

  Leonid I. Polyakov Mr.

  Ukraine's destiny is critical to the security of the entire post-Soviet zone. It long has been the stated goal of Ukrainian defense policy to integrate with Euro-Atlantic structures like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and this goal has been one of the chief objectives of the United States, as well. However, to move from rhetoric to implementation is particularly difficult where the defense reform of a post-Soviet state has been concerned, and Ukraine is no exception. Ukraine has begun to make remarkable progress towards its self-professed goal of defense integration with Western structures. This monograph provides a comprehensive account of Ukrainian-American defense relations and of Ukraine's defense reforms over the period since Ukraine became independent in 1991. It clearly points out both the obstacles and the successes that both partners have encountered in building a cooperation mechanism, in practical peacetime engagement, and in accomplishing missions together, as well as outlining the challenges ahead. Given that Ukraine is a major contributor to the stabilization forces in Iraq and a key player in any European and Eurasian security order, this monograph has real policy relevance, especially as the United States seeks to work with its allies and partners in other post-Soviet states to foster their defense and political integration with the West.

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  Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice

  Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice is the first critical history of the intellectual roots and actual application of the strategic doctrine of nuclear mutual assured destruction or MAD. Written by the world's leading French, British, and American military policy planners and analysts, this volume examines how MAD and its emphasis on the military targeting of population centers influenced the operational plans of the major nuclear powers and states, such as Pakistan, India, and Israel. Given America's efforts to move away from MAD and the continued reliance on MAD thinking by smaller nations to help justify further nuclear proliferation, Getting MAD is a timely must reading for anyone eager to understand our nuclear past and future.

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  Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice

  Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice is the first critical history of the intellectual roots and actual application of the strategic doctrine of nuclear mutual assured destruction or MAD. Written by the world's leading French, British, and American military policy planners and analysts, this volume examines how MAD and its emphasis on the military targeting of population centers influenced the operational plans of the major nuclear powers and states, such as Pakistan, India, and Israel. Given America's efforts to move away from MAD and the continued reliance on MAD thinking by smaller nations to help justify further nuclear proliferation, Getting MAD is a timely must reading for anyone eager to understand our nuclear past and future.

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  Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 21st Century: Reconceputalizing Threat and Response

  Steven Metz Dr. and Raymond A. Millen LTC

  Modern insurgency warfare presents fresh challenges for the United States, which must re-conceptualize its approach to fighting such conflicts. Because the dominant characteristics of insurgency--protractedness and ambiguity--effectively stymie the American military's approach to war, the United States needs to reorient its strategic thinking. The key to success is not for the U.S. military to become better at counterinsurgency, but for the U.S. military (and other elements of the government) to be skilled at helping local security and intelligence forces become effective at it. Adapting tactics and strategies to the realities on the ground is the not only pragmatic, but also crucial to success.

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  Islamic Rulings on Warfare

  Sherifa D. Zuhur Dr. and Youssef H. Aboul-Enein LTCDR

  The global war on terror (GWOT) and the battles with specific Islamist groups is, to some degree, a war of ideas. With a better understanding of Islamic concepts of war, peace, and Muslim relations with non-Muslims, those fighting the GWOT may gain support and increase their efficacy. The authors explain the principles of jihad and war and their conduct as found in key Islamic texts, the controversies that have emerged from the Quranic verses of war and peace, and the conflict between liberal or moderate Islamic voices and the extremists on matters such as the definition of combatants, treatment of hostages, and suicide attacks.

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  Shadows of Things Past and Images of the Future: Lessons for the Insurgencies in Our Midst

  Max G. Manwaring Dr.

  This monograph begins with a short discussion of contemporary insurgency. It makes the argument that, in studying terror war, guerrilla war, or any other common term for insurgency war, we find these expressions mischaracterize the activities of armed groups that are attempting to gain political control of a nation-state. The fact is that these organizations are engaged in a highly complex political-psychological war. Three key harbinger cases from which the first contemporary lessons of modern insurgency should have been learned provide the basis for the argument--Peru (1962 to date), Italy (1968-82), and Argentina (1969-79). Given that these kinds of conflict--or mutations--are likely to continue to challenge U.S. and other global leadership over the next several years, it is important to understand them. In this connection, it is also important to understand that the final results of insurgency or counterinsurgency are never determined by arms alone. Rather, a successful counterinsurgency depends on a holistic process that relies on civilian and military agencies and contingents working together in an integrated fashion to achieve a mutually agreed political-strategic end game.