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  The United States and Iraq's Shi'ite Clergy: Partners or Adversaries?

  W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

  The author addressed the critical need to gain the cooperation or at least the passive tolerance of the Shi'ite clerics and community. Such an effort could become more challenging as time goes on, and one of the recurring themes of this monograph is the declining patience of the Shi'ite clergy with the U.S. presence. By describing the attitudes, actions, and beliefs of major Shi'ite clerics, the author underscores a set of worldviews that are profoundly different from those of the U.S. authorities currently in Iraq and Washington. Some key Shi'ite clerics are deeply suspicious of the United States, exemplified by conspiracy theories. These suggest that Saddam's ouster was merely a convenient excuse, allowing the United States to implement its own agenda. Other clerical leaders are more open-minded but not particularly grateful for the U.S. presence, despite their utter hatred for Saddam and his regime.

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  Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

  Patrick Clawson Mr. and Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  Were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, there is a grave risk it would be tempted to provide them to terrorists. After all, mass casualty terrorism done by proxies has worked well for Iran to date. The fear about what Iran might do with nuclear weapons is fed by the concern that Tehran has no clear reason to be pursuing nuclear weapons. The strategic rationale for Iran's nuclear program is by no means obvious. Unlike proliferators such as Israel or Pakistan, Iran faces no historic enemy who would welcome an opportunity to wipe the state off the face of the earth. Iran is encircled by troubled neighbors, but nuclear weapons does nothing to help counter the threats that could come from state collapse in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, or Azerbaijan. Achieving trans-Atlantic consensus on how to respond to Iran's nuclear program will be difficult. This is a remarkably bad time for the international community to face the Iran nuclear problem, because the tensions about the Iraq WMD issue still poison relations and weaken U.S. ability to respond. Nevertheless, Iran's nuclear program poses a stark challenge to the international nonproliferation regime. There is no doubt that Iran is developing worrisome capabilities. If the world community led by Western countries is unable to prevent Iranian proliferation, then it is unclear that there is much meaning to global nonproliferation norms. Iran's nuclear program raises stark shortcomings with the global nonproliferation norms. The basic deal behind the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is that countries are allowed to acquire a wide range of troubling capabilities in return for being open and transparent. The NPT gives Iran every right to have a full closed fuel cycle, with large uranium enrichment facilities and a reprocessing plant that can extract substantial amounts of plutonium capabilities which would permit Iran at any time to rapidly "break out" of the NPT, building a considerable number of nuclear weapons in a short time.

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  Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

  Patrick Clawson Mr. and Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

  Were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, there is a grave risk it would be tempted to provide them to terrorists. After all, mass casualty terrorism done by proxies has worked well for Iran to date. The fear about what Iran might do with nuclear weapons is fed by the concern that Tehran has no clear reason to be pursuing nuclear weapons. The strategic rationale for Iran's nuclear program is by no means obvious. Unlike proliferators such as Israel or Pakistan, Iran faces no historic enemy who would welcome an opportunity to wipe the state off the face of the earth. Iran is encircled by troubled neighbors, but nuclear weapons does nothing to help counter the threats that could come from state collapse in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, or Azerbaijan. Achieving trans-Atlantic consensus on how to respond to Iran's nuclear program will be difficult. This is a remarkably bad time for the international community to face the Iran nuclear problem, because the tensions about the Iraq WMD issue still poison relations and weaken U.S. ability to respond. Nevertheless, Iran's nuclear program poses a stark challenge to the international nonproliferation regime. There is no doubt that Iran is developing worrisome capabilities. If the world community led by Western countries is unable to prevent Iranian proliferation, then it is unclear that there is much meaning to global nonproliferation norms. Iran's nuclear program raises stark shortcomings with the global nonproliferation norms. The basic deal behind the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is that countries are allowed to acquire a wide range of troubling capabilities in return for being open and transparent. The NPT gives Iran every right to have a full closed fuel cycle, with large uranium enrichment facilities and a reprocessing plant that can extract substantial amounts of plutonium capabilities which would permit Iran at any time to rapidly "break out" of the NPT, building a considerable number of nuclear weapons in a short time.

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  Paths Diverging? The Next Decade in the U.S.-Japan Security Alliance

  William E. Rapp LTC

  The author explores the changing nature of Japanese security policy and the impact of those changes on the U.S.-Japan security alliance. He begins his analysis by acquainting the reader with an insider's view of the conflicted Japanese conceptions of security policy and the various ideational and structural restraints on expanding the role of the military. Next, he explores the events of the past decade that have caused huge shifts in security policy and posture and predicts the future vectors of those changes within Japan. Finally, the author overlays the likely Japanese security future on the alliance and concludes that changes in the basic relationship between the United States and Japan must occur if the alliance is to retain its centrality 20 years from now.

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  Bounding the Global War on Terrorism

  Jeffrey Record Dr.

  The author examines three features of the war on terrorism as currently defined and conducted: (1) the administration's postulation of the terrorist threat, (2) the scope and feasibility of U.S. war aims, and (3) the war's political, fiscal, and military sustainability. He believes that the war on terrorism--as opposed to the campaign against al-Qaeda--lacks strategic clarity, embraces unrealistic objectives, and may not be sustainable over the long haul. He calls for downsizing the scope of the war on terrorism to reflect concrete U.S. security interests and the limits of American military power.

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  Insurgency in Nepal

  Thomas A. Marks Dr.

  Insurgencies in the 21st century are different than the Cold War era ones that generated existing doctrine and strategy, and which shaped the way that most American strategists think about insurgency. The beast has mutated and evolved. So, too, must those who confront it. To help Army and Department of Defense leaders master these new challenges, the Strategic Studies Institute publishes a special series entitled "Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 21st Century." This monograph, which assesses the growing insurgency in Nepal with its potential to further destabilize an already volatile region, is a path-breaking and an excellent inaugural effort in this new series.

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  The Future of the Australian-U.S. Security Relationship

  Rod Lyon Dr. and William T. Tow Prof.

  The authors assess the future of the Australian-U.S. security relationship within the context of the Canberra's transformation and strategic shift. They conclude that this relationship will remain important and will be strengthened in some ways--interdependence will be central to Australian strategy--but they consider the building of large-scale American military bases in Australia unlikely. The challenge, they note, will be sustaining political support within Australian for this type of relationship.

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  Army Professional Expertise and Jurisdictions

  Richard A. Lacquement Colonel

  The author provides a framework intended for use by the Army's strategic leaders. But, it also should be a point of departure for debate among all members of the profession. The most important purpose of this framework is to provide a mechanism for HOW TO THINK about Army expert knowledge and jurisdictions. He offers some general recommendations derived from my application of the framework and its logic. These recommendations represent just one possible view. Ultimately, the strategic leaders of the Army will decide priorities and boundaries.

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  Building Regional Security Cooperation in the Western Hemisphere: Issues and Recommendations

  Max G. Manwaring Dr., Wendy Fontela COL, Mary Grizzard Dr., and Dennis M. Rempe Mr.

  Dr. Max Manwaring and his team of conference rapporteurs have generated a substantive set of issues and recommendations. They have provided a viable means by which to begin the implementation of serious hemispheric security cooperation. Additionally, we have included U.S. Southern Command Commander General Hill's conference luncheon remarks as the Preface to our Issues and Recommendations report. The intent is to provide more context for readers who might not have attended the conference. We have also asked Ambassador Ambler Moss, the Director of the North-South Center, to expand that context with a short Afterward. This report comes at a critical juncture, a time of promise for greater economic integration between the United States and Latin America, but also a time of profound concern about the deteriorating security situation in a number of countries in the region.

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  From "Defending Forward" to a "Global Defense-In-Depth": Globalization and Homeland Security

  Antulio J. Echevarria II and Bert B. Tussing Prof.

  The authors have examined the scope and substance of our National Security Strategy for Homeland Security (NSHS). Disturbingly, they find that the NSHS fails to address the challenges that globalization poses for the security of the American homeland. The NSHS focuses primarily within the nation's borders and lacks a comprehensive approach to the problem of homeland security, a problem of global proportions. To remedy these deficiencies, the authors propose a strategic way-a Global Defense-in-Depth-that, among other things, employs some of the opportunities afforded by globalization to address its challenges.

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  National Security Challenges for the 21st Century

  Williamson Murray Dr.

  Officers who participated in the Advanced Strategic Art Program (ASAP) during their year at the U.S. Army War College wrote these chapters. The ASAP is a unique program that offers selected students a rigorous course of instruction in theater strategy. Solidly based in theory, doctrine, and history, the program provides these students a rich professional experience that includes staff rides, exercises, and the best instructional expertise available. The program is designed to provide the joint community with the military's best theater strategists. The challenges facing the defense establishment in the United States at the beginning of the 21st century are daunting indeed; however, the thoughtful essays included in this volume--including two award winners--representing some of the thinking by students at the U.S. Army War College, provide insights into these trials that will prove useful to policymakers both in and out of uniform.

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  National Security Challenges for the 21st Century

  Williamson Murray Dr.

  Officers who participated in the Advanced Strategic Art Program (ASAP) during their year at the U.S. Army War College wrote these chapters. The ASAP is a unique program that offers selected students a rigorous course of instruction in theater strategy. Solidly based in theory, doctrine, and history, the program provides these students a rich professional experience that includes staff rides, exercises, and the best instructional expertise available. The program is designed to provide the joint community with the military's best theater strategists. The challenges facing the defense establishment in the United States at the beginning of the 21st century are daunting indeed; however, the thoughtful essays included in this volume--including two award winners--representing some of the thinking by students at the U.S. Army War College, provide insights into these trials that will prove useful to policymakers both in and out of uniform.

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  Rethinking Asymmetric Threats

  Stephen J. Blank Dr.

  For several years U.S. policymakers, officials, and writers on defense have employed the terms "asymmetric" or "asymmetry" to characterize everything from the nature of the threats we face to the nature of war and beyond. The author challenges the utility of using those terms to characterize the threats we face, one element of the broader debate over the nature of war, U.S. strategy, and the threats confronting us. As a work of critique, it aims to make an important contribution to the threat debate. A correct assessment of the nature of the threat environment is essential to any sound defense doctrine for the U.S. Army and the military as a whole. That correct assessment can only be reached through a process of critique and debate.

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  Strategic Leadership Competencies

  Leonard Wong Dr., Stephen J. Gerras Dr., William Kidd COL, and Robert Pricone COL

  The strategic leadership literature in both the academic and military contexts is replete with long lists of the knowledge, skills, and abilities. Unfortunately, long comprehensive lists are problematic. Looking across the literature on strategic leadership, current Army strategic leader competencies, and the future environment, six meta-competencies can be derived: identity, mental agility, cross-cultural savvy, interpersonal maturity, world-class warrior, and professional astuteness.

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  Maintaining Effective Deterrence

  Colin S. Gray Dr.

  While deterrence is as old as human conflict itself, it became particularly important with the advent of nuclear weapons when armed conflict between the superpowers had the potential to end civilization. Today there is a sense that terrorism has rendered deterrence obsolete and forced the United States to substitute preemption for it. The author illustrates that strategic reality is not simple. Instead, the two are inextricable. He provides both a conceptual framework for understanding deterrence or, more accurately, the psychology of deterrence and policy guidance on how the United States can most effectively use it. The author concludes that an adaptable and flexible military with robust landpower is the only tool that can maintain deterrence.

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  War in the Balkans, 1991-2002

  R. Craig Nation Dr.

  The author writes a comprehensive history of the Balkan wars which were provoked by the collapse of the Yugoslav Federation in 1991. These wars, and the instability that they have provoked, became preoccupations for international security management through the 1990s. After an initial phase of distancing and hesitation, Balkan conflict drew the United States and its most important European allies into an open-ended commitment to peace enforcement, conflict management, and peace-building in the region, importantly supported by the U.S. Army. These efforts are still underway, and significant tensions and potential flashpoints remain in place within former Yugoslavia and the entire Southeastern European area. The lessons learned from the new Balkan wars, and the successes and failures of U.S. and international engagement, will be a significant foundation for future efforts to manage intractable regional conflict. The Balkan conflict of the 1990s, as a case study in state failure and medium intensity warfare, international conflict management and intervention, and U.S. military engagement, provides an excellent framework for asking basic questions about the dynamic of international security at the dawn of a new millennium. War in the Balkans, 1991-2002 is intended to provide a foundation for addressing such questions by surveying events in both contemporary and larger historical perspectives and posing preliminary conclusions concerning their larger meaning. There will, regretfully, be other situations comparable in broad outline to the violent decline and fall of socialist Yugoslavia. The policies of the international community in the Yugoslav imbroglio have been criticized widely as ineffective. However, in the end, after years of futility, the conflict could be contained only by a significant international military intervention spearheaded by the United States, and a long-term, multilateral commitment to post-conflict peace-building.

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  War in the Balkans, 1991-2002

  R. Craig Nation Dr.

  The author writes a comprehensive history of the Balkan wars which were provoked by the collapse of the Yugoslav Federation in 1991. These wars, and the instability that they have provoked, became preoccupations for international security management through the 1990s. After an initial phase of distancing and hesitation, Balkan conflict drew the United States and its most important European allies into an open-ended commitment to peace enforcement, conflict management, and peace-building in the region, importantly supported by the U.S. Army. These efforts are still underway, and significant tensions and potential flashpoints remain in place within former Yugoslavia and the entire Southeastern European area. The lessons learned from the new Balkan wars, and the successes and failures of U.S. and international engagement, will be a significant foundation for future efforts to manage intractable regional conflict. The Balkan conflict of the 1990s, as a case study in state failure and medium intensity warfare, international conflict management and intervention, and U.S. military engagement, provides an excellent framework for asking basic questions about the dynamic of international security at the dawn of a new millennium. War in the Balkans, 1991-2002 is intended to provide a foundation for addressing such questions by surveying events in both contemporary and larger historical perspectives and posing preliminary conclusions concerning their larger meaning. There will, regretfully, be other situations comparable in broad outline to the violent decline and fall of socialist Yugoslavia. The policies of the international community in the Yugoslav imbroglio have been criticized widely as ineffective. However, in the end, after years of futility, the conflict could be contained only by a significant international military intervention spearheaded by the United States, and a long-term, multilateral commitment to post-conflict peace-building.

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  Assessing the Impact of U.S.-Israeli Relations on the Arab World

  Lenore G. Martin Dr.

  The author addresses the challenge that U.S. policymakers face in managing relations with numerous regional allies, including Israel and a host of moderate Arab states. These states often maintain differing concerns and are responding to diverse domestic and international pressures when they seek to influence the United States. These regional concerns and interests are thoroughly analyzed throughout this monograph. Additionally, the special importance of the Palestinian question is well-represented, with nuances of regional opinion carefully reflected.

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  Nationalism, Sectarianism, and the Future of the U.S. Presence in Post-Saddam Iraq

  W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

  The author addresses the critical questions involved in understanding the background of Iraqi national identity and the ways in which it may evolve in the future to either the favor or detriment of the United States. He pays particular attention to the issue of Iraqi sectarianism and the emerging role of the Shi'ite Muslims, noting the power of an emerging but fractionalized clergy. This report includes policy recommendations for U.S. military and civilian decision makers that helps to illuminate the complex subjects of Iraqi nationalism and sectarianism and their relevance to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

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  Perspectives from Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia: Hemispheric Security

  Luiz Bitencourt Dr., Pedro Villagra Delgado Ambassador, and Henry Medina Uribe Major General

  There is a lack of a common view regarding precisely "What is a threat?" and "What is security?" which is the heart of the stability problem in Latin America. These authors acknowledge that the traditional definition of security and threat is no longer completely valid. They understand that a more realistic concept includes the protection of national sovereignty against unconventional internal causes and attackers. They also recognize that a close linkage exists among security, development, and democracy. Nevertheless, they were reluctant to take a broadened definition of national security to its logical conclusion. That is, to correspondingly broaden and integrate the roles of the national security forces into an internal sovereignty protection mission. Colombians now understand that that role is what makes stability, development, and democracy possible. The security-stability equation in Latin America is extremely volatile and dangerous. In terms of the kind of environment that is essential to the entire North American strategy for the hemisphere, that stability situation is deserving of much more attention than it has had in the recent past.

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  Socio-Economic Roots of Radicalism?: Towards Explaining the Appeal of Islamic Radicals

  Alan Richards Prof.

  The author addresses the critical questions involved in understanding and coping with the roots of Islamic radicalism. He provides particular attention to the links between radicalism and a series of crises associated with modernization in the Islamic World. The result is a thoughtful and probing study including policy recommendations for U.S. military and civilian decision makers that makes intelligible the complex subject of Islamic radicalism.

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  The Lessons of History: The Chinese people's Liberation Army at 75

  Laurie Burkitt Ms., Larry M. Wortzel Dr., and Andrew Scobell Dr.

  With the armed forces of the People's Republic of China (PLA) celebrating its 75th anniversary on August 1, 2002, it only seemed appropriate and timely to take stock of the world's largest military. The PLA has officially been in existence for three-quarters of a century, and its history is one filled with turmoil and warfare. One weekend in the September 2002, a group of PLA specialists gathered at Carlisle Barracks, the home of the U.S. Army War College, to assess what lessons China's soldiers had drawn from the history of their own armed forces. This volume constitutes the final product of months of extensive research by the individual authors and hours of intense discussion at the 3-day conference by approximately 50 participants. The conference was sponsored jointly by the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and the U.S. Army War College.

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  The Lessons of History: The Chinese people's Liberation Army at 75

  Laurie Burkitt Ms., Larry M. Wortzel Dr., and Andrew Scobell Dr.

  With the armed forces of the People's Republic of China (PLA) celebrating its 75th anniversary on August 1, 2002, it only seemed appropriate and timely to take stock of the world's largest military. The PLA has officially been in existence for three-quarters of a century, and its history is one filled with turmoil and warfare. One weekend in the September 2002, a group of PLA specialists gathered at Carlisle Barracks, the home of the U.S. Army War College, to assess what lessons China's soldiers had drawn from the history of their own armed forces. This volume constitutes the final product of months of extensive research by the individual authors and hours of intense discussion at the 3-day conference by approximately 50 participants. The conference was sponsored jointly by the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and the U.S. Army War College.

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  Why They Fight: Combat Motivation in the Iraq War

  Thomas A. Kolditz COL, Leonard Wong Dr., Raymond A. Millen LTC, and Terrence M. Potter COL

  With the recent lightning swift combat successes of Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, there may be a tendency to view with awe the lethality of U.S. technology and training. The researchers, however, argue that the true strength of America's military might lies not in its hardware or high-tech equipment, but in its soldiers. Dr. Leonard Wong and his colleagues traveled to Iraq to see what motivated soldiers to continue in battle, to face extreme danger, and to risk their lives in accomplishing the mission. As a means of comparison, they began by interviewing Iraqi Regular Army prisoners of war to examine their combat motivation and unit dynamics. The researchers then interviewed U.S. combat troops fresh from the fields of battle to examine their views. What they found was that today's U.S. soldiers, much like soldiers of the past, fight for each other. Unit cohesion is alive and well in today's Army. Yet, Dr. Wong and his fellow researchers also found that soldiers cited ideological reasons such as liberation, freedom, and democracy as important factors in combat motivation. Today's soldiers trust each other, they trust their leaders, they trust the Army, and they also understand the moral dimensions of war. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the all-volunteer Army. This monograph is a celebration of the success of that radical idea and the transformation of the U.S. Army from a demoralized draft army, to a struggling all-volunteer force, to a truly professional Army.

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  Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff's Leadership Using the Joint Strategic Planning System in the 1990s: Recommendations for Strategic Leaders

  Richard M. Meinhart Dr.

  The Joint Strategic Planning System has been considered the primary formal means by which the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff executed his statutory responsibilities specified by Congress in Title 10 of the U.S. Code. Yet little has been written about this strategic planning system itself, although some of its products such as the varied National Military Strategies and Joint Visions have been thoroughly reviewed. One can gain great insight into the Chairman's formal leadership since the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act by understanding how this system evolved, reviewing its processes, and examining all of its products. The author examines how three Chairmen--Generals Powell, Shalikashvili, and Shelton--adapted and used strategic planning to provide direction and shape the military in the rapidly changing strategic environment of the 1990s. He identifies five broad recommendations relevant to future leaders on how to use a strategic planning system to transform their organizations. These historic-based recommendations evolve around enduring strategic leadership competencies such as revolutionary versus evolutionary change, vision, flexibility versus bureaucracy, interpersonal relationships, and moral courage.