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  The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications

  Carolyn Pumphrey Dr.

  In March 2001 the U.S. Army War College, the Triangle Institute for Strategic Studies, and Duke University's Program in Asian Security Studies cosponsored a conference which examined the security implications of the rise of China for the international community in general and for the United States in particular. This book, which includes an introduction and 12 papers from the conference, comprises some of the major findings of participants and attendees. Sections of the book address China as a rising power, China as a security threat, the other Asian powers in relation to China, the flashpoints in East and South Asia, and Sino-American relations.

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  The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications

  Carolyn Pumphrey Dr.

  In March 2001 the U.S. Army War College, the Triangle Institute for Strategic Studies, and Duke University's Program in Asian Security Studies cosponsored a conference which examined the security implications of the rise of China for the international community in general and for the United States in particular. This book, which includes an introduction and 12 papers from the conference, comprises some of the major findings of participants and attendees. Sections of the book address China as a rising power, China as a security threat, the other Asian powers in relation to China, the flashpoints in East and South Asia, and Sino-American relations.

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  Colombia's Paramilitaries: Criminals or Political Force?

  David Spencer Mr.

  The intent of this monograph was to explore the multiple dimensions of Colombia's ongoing crisis and inform the public debate regarding the challenges faced by the statesmen, intellectuals, military strategists, and others who take on the responsibility to deal with that crisis. Hopefully, it will also generate serious reflection about the tough choices Colombian, U.S., and other global leaders face. The author points out, first, that the Colombian paramilitary self-defense forces represent some important sectors of society, and enjoy more popular support from Colombian society than the insurgents. Second, the paramilitaries have developed into a powerful irregular force that is proving itself capable of challenging Colombian guerrillas. Third, while they commit horrendous atrocities, they have been successful where the state has not. Therefore, the paramilitaries are seen by many as a viable solution to the conflict. Finally, he argues that, until the segments of the society represented by the paramilitaries are--somehow-- incorporated into the solution to the Colombian crisis, there will be no solution.

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  ESDP and Missile Defense: European Perspectives for More Balanced Transatlantic Partnership

  Martin Aguera Mr.

  Security cooperation with Europe has been the bedrock of American strategy for more than 50 years. Today, that relationship is undergoing both stress and refinement as Europe moves toward a more unified political and security identity, and as the United States responds to a changing global security environment. While many issues have the potential to complicate U.S.-European security cooperation, few are more pressing than the U.S. pursuit of missile defense and Europe's construction of European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). The author explains the relationship between missile defense and ESDP and shows that, rather than serving as wedges between the United States and Europe, both of these can help construct a better security relationship. In fact, transatlantic cooperation and understanding of these issues is necessary for either of them to succeed.

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  Transforming Defense an Era of Peace and Prosperity

  Conrad C. Crane Dr.

  The ideas and issues presented in this collection of papers from the Twelfth Annual Strategy Conference conducted by the U.S. Army War College in April 2001 will educate and inform anyone interested in the past and future course of American defense reform. Though conference attendees had many differing opinions about the barriers to defense transformation and how to overcome them, a broad consensus formed that some change is essential to meet future security requirements. They observed at the time that it is ironic that the peace which creates the prosperity and wealth to fund transformation and permits a window of time to achieve it, also decreases public interest and urgency to accomplish it. The terrible events of September 11, 2001, appear to have dispelled public disinterest in the nation s military capabilities, and may provide increased impetus for the drive for defense reform. If the opportunity is squandered, or the wrong choices are made, the costs to the nation someday could be catastrophic.

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  Chinese Information Warfare: A Phantom Menace or Emerging Threat?

  Toshi Yoshihara Mr.

  The author explores what he perceives to be China s pursuit of information warfare (IW) as a method of fighting asymmetric warfare against the United States. He believes the Chinese are seeking ways to adapt IW to their own style of warfare. Paradoxically, he observes that the Chinese have not gleaned their intelligence through espionage, but through careful scrutiny of U.S. IW in practice. The author examines those aspects of IW--PSYOPS, Denial, and Deception--that China believes provides the greatest prospects for victory in a conflict. Not surprisingly, Sun Tzu is interwoven into this emerging theory. Targeting the enemy s nervous system at all levels, that is, his ability to gather and assess information and then transmit orders, provides significant advantages in the prosecution of a campaign. He concludes that the extent of Chinese advances or intent regarding IW is difficult to ascertain given its closed society. Chinese IW may still be nascent, but the menacing intent is there and only vigilance will protect the United States.

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  Chinese Information Warfare: A Phantom Menace or Emerging Threat?

  Toshi Yoshihara Mr.

  The author explores what he perceives to be China s pursuit of information warfare (IW) as a method of fighting asymmetric warfare against the United States. He believes the Chinese are seeking ways to adapt IW to their own style of warfare. Paradoxically, he observes that the Chinese have not gleaned their intelligence through espionage, but through careful scrutiny of U.S. IW in practice. The author examines those aspects of IW--PSYOPS, Denial, and Deception--that China believes provides the greatest prospects for victory in a conflict. Not surprisingly, Sun Tzu is interwoven into this emerging theory. Targeting the enemy s nervous system at all levels, that is, his ability to gather and assess information and then transmit orders, provides significant advantages in the prosecution of a campaign. He concludes that the extent of Chinese advances or intent regarding IW is difficult to ascertain given its closed society. Chinese IW may still be nascent, but the menacing intent is there and only vigilance will protect the United States.

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  Rapid Decisive Operations: An Assumptions-Based Critique

  Antulio J. Echevarria Dr.

  In support of the Joint community's efforts to develop a viable operational concept, the author argues that the Rapid Decisive Operations (RDO) concepts developers deserve high praise for attempting to link two relative properties--speed and decisiveness--but that the definition of RDO is at present incoherent and based on several deeply flawed assumptions. The author concludes that RDO creates dubious expectations and will likely fail to balance the strengths and weaknesses introduced by new technologies. He further recommends a method for identifying and addressing an operational concept s critical assumptions.

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  Rapid Decisive Operations: An Assumptions-Based Critique

  Antulio J. Echevarria II

  In support of the Joint community's efforts to develop a viable operational concept, the author argues that the Rapid Decisive Operations (RDO) concepts developers deserve high praise for attempting to link two relative properties--speed and decisiveness--but that the definition of RDO is at present incoherent and based on several deeply flawed assumptions. The author concludes that RDO creates dubious expectations and will likely fail to balance the strengths and weaknesses introduced by new technologies. He further recommends a method for identifying and addressing an operational concept s critical assumptions.

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  AC/RC Integration: Today's Success and Transformation's Challenge

  Dallas D. Owens Dr.

  Lieutenant Colonel Dallas Owens analyzes current integration programs and initiatives and evaluates them for their potential to resist transformation's possible threat to AC/RC integration. In Part I, Lieutenant Colonel Owens examines historical and current concepts of integration. He shows how programs emerged from the concept, the barriers to integration that they attempt to address, and their success. In Part II, he looks into the future of AC/RC integration, starting with an overview of transformation, then discussing transformation's impacts on the Reserve Components and their integration with the active force. Finally, he provides conclusions about the current and future state of AC/RC integration and offers recommendations to overcome transformation s challenges to integration. Maintaining an integrated force during transformational turbulence is imperative if the Army is to retain its ability to support the National Military Strategy.

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  Soldiers in Cities: Military Operations on Urban Terrain

  Michael Desch Dr.

  In the past half-century, the classic military conflict of armies maneuvering in the field has been replaced by conflicts that center on, rather than avoid, heavily populated areas. Modern military conflict more frequently is not just a fight to control villages or cities, but a variation on the timeless wish to control populations and the hearts of nations. The hardware and mass orientation of the levee en masse and industrial-age armies is being replaced by sophisticated terrorists, information warfare, and the politics of mass persuasion. These are reshaping the face of warfare. This book focuses on identifying the lessons of previous military operations--from combat to humanitarian operations--which will be useful to the U.S. military in the future in conducting operations in urban areas abroad and at home.

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  Soldiers in Cities: Military Operations on Urban Terrain

  Michael Desch Dr.

  In the past half-century, the classic military conflict of armies maneuvering in the field has been replaced by conflicts that center on, rather than avoid, heavily populated areas. Modern military conflict more frequently is not just a fight to control villages or cities, but a variation on the timeless wish to control populations and the hearts of nations. The hardware and mass orientation of the levee en masse and industrial-age armies is being replaced by sophisticated terrorists, information warfare, and the politics of mass persuasion. These are reshaping the face of warfare. This book focuses on identifying the lessons of previous military operations--from combat to humanitarian operations--which will be useful to the U.S. military in the future in conducting operations in urban areas abroad and at home.

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  The Costs of Conflict: The Impact on China of a Future War

  Andrew Scobell Dr.

  It is increasingly important for Americans to think carefully about the vast complexities of the U.S.-China relationship, and the calculations that go into forming courses of action. The key question is: will China s so-called first priority of economic development and its resulting influence on domestic social stability curtail China s continuing reliance on military force as a means of exerting its influence? In addition, will economic development enhance China s comprehensive national power and thus contribute to some of China s more unhealthy goals, such as dominating the South China Seas, seizing Taiwan by force, or grabbing the Senkaku Islands from Japan? Is the China-Taiwan economic dynamic strong enough to offset military adventurism? How this dilemma is managed by the United States, China, and Taiwan will affect the future of Asia, and perhaps the world. We have tried to present in this book factual and analytical essays which stress the need for squarely addressing these questions.

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  The Costs of Conflict: The Impact on China of a Future War

  Andrew Scobell Dr.

  It is increasingly important for Americans to think carefully about the vast complexities of the U.S.-China relationship, and the calculations that go into forming courses of action. The key question is: will China s so-called first priority of economic development and its resulting influence on domestic social stability curtail China s continuing reliance on military force as a means of exerting its influence? In addition, will economic development enhance China s comprehensive national power and thus contribute to some of China s more unhealthy goals, such as dominating the South China Seas, seizing Taiwan by force, or grabbing the Senkaku Islands from Japan? Is the China-Taiwan economic dynamic strong enough to offset military adventurism? How this dilemma is managed by the United States, China, and Taiwan will affect the future of Asia, and perhaps the world. We have tried to present in this book factual and analytical essays which stress the need for squarely addressing these questions.

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  Budget Policy and Fiscal Risk: Implications for Defense

  Dennis S. Ippolito Dr.

  The defense budget remains one of the central shaping features of U.S. national security and national military strategy. To understand what is possible in terms of defense transformation, one must first have a firm grasp of the budgetary context of strategic decisions. The author shows that defense will continue to compete with domestic programs for that portion of the budget allocated to discretionary spending, and argues that this is a competition in which defense needs have not fared especially well in the past and may not in the future. If accurate, this assessment will have tremendous implications for defense transformation. The leaders of the Army and the Department of Defense must therefore frame their transformation strategies within fiscal realities.

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  Budget Policy and Fiscal Risk: Implications for Defense

  Dennis S. Ippolito Dr.

  The defense budget remains one of the central shaping features of U.S. national security and national military strategy. To understand what is possible in terms of defense transformation, one must first have a firm grasp of the budgetary context of strategic decisions. The author shows that defense will continue to compete with domestic programs for that portion of the budget allocated to discretionary spending, and argues that this is a competition in which defense needs have not fared especially well in the past and may not in the future. If accurate, this assessment will have tremendous implications for defense transformation. The leaders of the Army and the Department of Defense must therefore frame their transformation strategies within fiscal realities.

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  Funding Defense: Challenges of Buying Military Capability in Sub-Saharan Africa

  Martin Revayi Rupiya Dr. and Daniel W. Henk COL

  Martin Rupiya, Director of the University of Zimbabwe's Centre for Defence Studies, and Daniel Henk of the Air War College provide one of the first comprehensive studies of defense budgeting practices in Africa. They assess both the problems with these practices and fruitful avenues of reform. By doing so, they provide a solid roadmap both for African leaders and for Americans concerned with the development of greater security in the region.

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  Internal Wars: Rethinking Problem and Response

  Max G. Manwaring Dr.

  Asymmetric guerrilla war—insurgencies, internal wars, and other small-scale contingencies (SSCs)—are the most pervasive and likely type of conflict in the post-Cold War era. It is almost certain that the United States will become involved directly or indirectly in some of these conflicts. Yet, there appears to be little or no recognition and application of the strategic-level lessons of the Vietnam War and the hundreds of other smaller conflicts that have taken place over the past several years. The author draws from the lessons of the recent past to better prepare today's civilian and military leaders to meet the unconventional and asymmetric warfare challenges that face the United States and the rest of the international community. This country is in a new global security environment that involves the integration of free markets, technologies, and countries to a degree never before witnessed. It is not easy to understand and respond to the many smaller threats—and benefits—that stem from global integration. Yet, as the country that benefits most from global integration, the United States has a pressing national interest in maintaining and enhancing the new order. By coming to grips analytically with the most salient strategic lessons or rules that dominate contemporary SSCs, political and military leaders can maximize opportunities in the current and future chaos.

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  Preparing for Asymmetry: As Seen Through the Lens of Joint Vision 2020

  Melissa Applegate Ms.

  Since the mid-1990s, the concept of strategic asymmetry has begun to receive serious attention from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). The 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review, for instance, stated, "U.S. dominance in the conventional military arena may encourage adversaries to use…asymmetric means to attack our forces and interests overseas and Americans at home." But while American strategists and defense leaders sense the importance of strategy asymmetry, much analytical work remains to be done before it is fully understood. The author assesses the revisions to Joint Vision 2020, DOD's roadmap to the future, that must be undertaken in order to prepare for asymmetric challenges.

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  Preparing for Asymmetry: As Seen Through the Lens of Joint Vision 2020

  Melissa Applegate Ms.

  Since the mid-1990s, the concept of strategic asymmetry has begun to receive serious attention from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). The 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review, for instance, stated, "U.S. dominance in the conventional military arena may encourage adversaries to use…asymmetric means to attack our forces and interests overseas and Americans at home." But while American strategists and defense leaders sense the importance of strategy asymmetry, much analytical work remains to be done before it is fully understood. The author assesses the revisions to Joint Vision 2020, DOD's roadmap to the future, that must be undertaken in order to prepare for asymmetric challenges.

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  The Hart-Rudman Commission and the Homeland Defense

  Ian Roxborough Dr.

  With the exception of attacks by ballistic missiles, the continental United States was long held to be virtually immune from attack. For Americans, wars were something that took place in other countries. In the future, that may not hold. But while strategic thinkers agree that homeland defense needs greater attention, there is less consensus on the precise nature of the threat. The author disagrees with the commonly-held assumption that the main threat to the American homeland will come from terrorism inspired by U.S. leadership of globalization. He contends that the architects of the American strategy for homeland defense need a broader perspective that includes a wide range of existing or potential threats.

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  Toward a Strategy of Positive Ends

  Antulio J. Echevarria Dr. and Huba Wass de Czege Brigadier General (Ret.)

  Brigadier General (Retired) Huba Wass de Czege and Lieutenant Colonel Antulio J. Echevarria II make a case for a strategy aimed at achieving positive, rather than neutral or negative, ends. They first discuss the dynamic conditions of the new strategic environment, then explore the options the United States has available for dealing with those conditions. The options include (1) preventive defense, (2) neo-isolationism, and (3) a strategy that pursues positive ends. Only the last, the authors argue, deals with the new security environment in a proactive way. It enables the United States to define its vital interests in terms of conditions--such as peace, freedom, rule of law, and economic prosperity--rather than as the containment or defeat of inimical state or nonstate actors. The basic approach of a strategy of positive ends would be to build and enlarge a circle of stakeholders committed to creating conditions for a profitable and enduring peace--thereby reducing the potential for crises--and to preparing response mechanisms for coping successfully when crises do occur.

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  Toward a Strategy of Positive Ends

  Antulio J. Echevarria II and Huba Wass de Czege Brigadier General (Ret.)

  Brigadier General (Retired) Huba Wass de Czege and Lieutenant Colonel Antulio J. Echevarria II make a case for a strategy aimed at achieving positive, rather than neutral or negative, ends. They first discuss the dynamic conditions of the new strategic environment, then explore the options the United States has available for dealing with those conditions. The options include (1) preventive defense, (2) neo-isolationism, and (3) a strategy that pursues positive ends. Only the last, the authors argue, deals with the new security environment in a proactive way. It enables the United States to define its vital interests in terms of conditions--such as peace, freedom, rule of law, and economic prosperity--rather than as the containment or defeat of inimical state or nonstate actors. The basic approach of a strategy of positive ends would be to build and enlarge a circle of stakeholders committed to creating conditions for a profitable and enduring peace--thereby reducing the potential for crises--and to preparing response mechanisms for coping successfully when crises do occur.

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  Jihadi Groups, Nuclear Pakistan, and the New Great Game

  M. Ehsan Ahrari Dr.

  For the United States and other nations concerned with security in South and Central Asia, one of the most ominous trends has been the growing influence of Jihadist groups in Pakistan which feel obligated to wage holy war against everything that they perceive as non-Islamic. Their objective would be a Pakistani government similar to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The danger this would pose to regional stability and U.S. interests is clear. The author assesses Jihadi groups from the framework of a new "Great Game" for influence in Central Asia involving an array of states. He argues that, if this competition leads to increased violence, outside states including the United States could be drawn in. On the other hand, if the region stabilizes, it could provide solid economic and political partners for the United States. A well-designed American strategy, Ahrari contends, might help avoid crises or catastrophe.

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  The Drug Scourge as a Hemispheric Problem

  Barry R. McCaffrey General

  Former Drug Czar General Barry McCaffrey, USA (Retired) argues that Colombia s 40 million citizens must not be deserted by their neighbors. Leaving the Colombians to deal in isolation with a pervasive drug problem will deeply affect all 800 million of us in the Western Hemisphere through addiction, violence, and corruption. Moreover, he argues that the United States and the entire international community must support a long-term commitment to Plan Colombia and to building cooperative multinational approaches to the tough drug-associated problems that face us all. This is an undertaking in which we all have an equal stake and an equal responsibility.