Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The Information Revolution and National Security

Thomas E. Copeland Mr.

The effects of the information revolution are particularly profound in the realm of national security strategy. They are creating new opportunities for those who master them. The U.S. military, for instance, is exploring ways to seize information superiority during conflicts and thus gain decisive advantages over its opponents. But the information revolution also creates new security threats and vulnerabilities. No nation has made more effective use of the information revolution than the United States, but none is more dependent on information technology. To protect American security, then, military leaders and defense policymakers must understand the information revolution.

The essays in this volume are intended to contribute to such an understanding. They grew from a December 1999 conference co-sponsored by the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute and the University of Pittsburgh Matthew B. Ridgway Center for International Security Studies. The conference brought together some of the foremost members of the academic strategic studies community with representatives of the U.S. Government and U.S. military. As could be expected when examining a topic as complex as the relationship between the information revolution and national security, the presentations and discussions were far-ranging, covering such issues as the global implications of the information revolution, the need for a national information security strategy, and the role of information in U.S. military operations. While many more questions emerged than answers, the conference did suggest some vital tasks that military leaders and defense policymakers must undertake.
Chinese Arms Exports: Policy, Players and Process

Bates Gill Dr. and Evan S. Medeiros Mr.

Global arms proliferation continues to be a key concern for the United States, particularly the export role of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although China experienced a significant decline in its arms exports in the 1990s (down from the boom times of the 1980s), the PRC provides a significant array of lethal weapons and sensitive defense technologies to states around the world. These exports provide an invaluable means by which to assess the progress and performance of China's military-industrial complex. Moreover, these products may present the very systems and technological know-how that the United States and allied forces will encounter in a future conflict.
Chinese Army Building in the Era of Jiang Zemin

Andrew Scobell Dr.

To many in the United States, China looms large and threatening. This monograph attempts to answer, through an analysis of China's defense establishment under the leadership of Jiang Zemin, questions such as: What are the national security and national military goals of China's leaders? What strategies are Chinese leaders considering in pursuit of these goals? What is the likelihood that these goals will be attained? It assesses the political and economic determinants of China s effort to modernize its armed forces. Four possible strategies are outlined: (1) playing the superpower game," (2) playing to its strengths," (3) changing the rules of the game," or (4) don t play that game." The factors that will determine the selection of a strategy are examined. The most likely strategy is identified and its outcome of evaluated. Lastly, the implications of the study for the U.S. defense community are addressed.
Threats to Russian Security: The View from Moscow

Stephen J. Blank Dr.

The documented threat assessments addressed here are clearly the culmination to date of a long-standing process by which the Russian military and government have forsaken the optimistic Westernizing postures and visions of the initial post-Soviet years and returned in many respects to assessments and demands for specific policies that evoke the Soviet mentality and period. The armed forces and the government have adopted a viewpoint that magnifies both the internal and external threats to Russia that they perceive and regard those threats as growing in number and saliency. This viewpoint is fundamentally at odds with both the post-1985 Soviet and Russian perspective and with Western perspectives on international security. The future course of Russian security policy is one of the most important and difficult questions in contemporary international affairs. This monograph addresses basic issues pertaining to Russia s future options for policymakers' consideration and reflection as the global debate over Russia s future direction under Vladimir Putin takes shape.
Multinational Land Forces and the NATO Force Structure Review

Thomas-Durell Young Dr.

Since 1991, standing and mobilization forces made available by nations to NATO have been steadily reduced, particularly in the case of land forces. Equally important have been the structures NATO has created into which national contributions would fall on deployment. Military Committee (MC) 317, accepted by nations in 1991, provides the framework by which NATO organizes its forces. However, the author argues that, while there are arguably sufficient reaction forces to support NATO Ministerial Guidance, there are numerous weaknesses that would, and have, inhibited the efficient and effective deployment of land forces in crises. More specifically, there are insufficient deployable reaction headquarters, both at the corps and component command level, that would support a commander of a NATO Combined Joint Task Force. The continued existence of what has become atavistic practices of nations impede and inhibit the employment of multinational land forces by an Allied commander. The author observes that the NATO Force Structure Review offers nations an opportunity to review these dated structures, organizations, and practices.
U.S. Military Engagement with Transcaucasia and Central Asia

Stephen J. Blank Dr.

The Clinton administration has proclaimed a strategy to engage and enlarge the democratic community of states. By virtue of their strategic location adjacent to Russia, the Middle East, and Europe s periphery, and their large-scale oil and natural gas deposits, Transcaucasia and Central Asia have become important testing grounds of this strategy. The U.S. goal of irrevocably integrating these states into the Western state system economically, politically, and militarily has made them an intensifying focus of international rivalry with Russia. Moscow still perceives these areas as part of its sphere of interest and deeply resents U.S. engagement there. Furthermore, Moscow's current war with the breakaway province of Chechnya demonstrates its willingness to contest expanding U.S. interests forcefully. Moreover, in this region many factors exist that could cause other conflicts. Accordingly, it is a sensitive place to test the strategic rationale of the engagement strategy and its military corollary, a strategy whose goal is to shape the emerging environment in directions that we wish to see. This monograph contributes to the debate that has just begun and which undoubtedly will last for a long time over what our strategy for the new states should be and how it should be carried out.
The PLA and the Kosovo Conflict

June Teufel-Dreyer Dr.

The U.S. armed forces are not the only military that has sought to discern the lessons of the Kosovo campaign in the spring of 1999. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also analyzed the conflict and drawn its own conclusions. In fact, as Dr. June Teufel Dreyer, Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami in Florida, observes, rather than reach a single set of conclusions, different groups within the Chinese military drew different judgments. Dr. Dreyer argues that these differences of opinion reflect the considerable diversity of thinking about defense modernization and future war that exists within the PLA today. The analysis that follows provides an opportunity for readers to learn about the different strands in Chinese strategic thinking as that country enters the 21st century. The different views that Dr. Dreyer identifies reminds us of the dangers of treating the PLA as a single monolithic entity. Only through careful study and analysis can we anticipate trends in the future direction of the PLA.
Shaping the World through Engagement: Assessing the Department of Defense's Theater Engagement Planning Process

Thomas Jordan COL, Douglas C. Lovelace Professor, and Thomas-Durell Young Dr.

The Department of Defense (DoD) has launched an ambitious planning initiative that could have a major impact upon how resources are allocated among the military departments and the combatant commands. The National Command Authorities have directed the geographic combatant commanders-in- chief (CINCs) to implement the administration's strategy of shaping within their areas of responsibility (AORs). In the past, no single, unified planning mechanism within the Joint Strategic Planning System (JSPS) addressed the issue of shaping. DoD seeks to ensure that all shaping activities conducted by the U.S. armed forces are executed within the parameters of existing law and stated policy. In this particular aspect of implementing the President's strategy, DoD faces difficult challenges and opportunities. This monograph addresses how well Theater Engagement Planning methodology has been designed and implemented and offers recommendations to improve the existing process.
The Future of the American Military Presence in Europe

Lloyd J. Matthews Colonel

Ten years have elapsed since the fall of the Berlin Wall, which served as a fitting symbol for the end of the Cold War. That historic juncture brought into question the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has served Alliance members so well since its founding in 1949. It also brought into question the rationale for America's continued deep involvement in European security affairs. With the gradual realization that the Russian menace is essentially dead, at least for the next 10 to 15 years and perhaps longer, and with NATO's missions having evolved well beyond the original purpose of territorial defense, debate on both sides of the Atlantic has begun to intensify concerning the vital issue of where NATO should be headed and America's relation to the Alliance.
Armed Conflict in the 21st Century: The Information Revolution and Post-Modern Warfare

Steven Metz Dr.

Within the past decade, the U.S. military has implemented a number of programs to assess the changes underway in the global security environment and in the nature of warfare. Defense leaders and thinkers have concluded that revolutionary change is taking place and, if the United States develops appropriate technology, warfighting concepts, and military organizations, it can master or control this change, thus augmenting American security. Dr. Steven Metz suggests that official thinking within the U.S. military may be too narrow. The information revolution, he contends, will have far-reaching strategic effects. The transformation it brings will not only be technological, but political, social, ethical and strategic as well. As he explores the impact that the information revolution may have on the conduct of armed conflict, Dr. Metz introduces a number of ideas which need further analysis, including the potential for the emergence of nontraditional, networked enemies; multidimensional asymmetry; the privatization of security; and the potential impact of technologies like robotics, nonlethality, and nanotechnology. He concludes with an assessment of the features likely to characterize successful militaries in the 21st century.
European Security: Washington's Shaping Strategy in Action

Stephen J. Blank Dr., Thomas-Durell Young Dr., and William T. Johnsen Dr.

Notwithstanding the claims of some in the United States, European affairs continue to dominate U.S. foreign policy and strategic thinking. The end of the Cold War has not seen any blurring of the focus of U.S. officials on European affairs. Managing the implications of the break-up of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, the seemingly never-ending conflicts in the Balkans, increasing Western norms and institutions in Central and Eastern Europe, and expanding and reforming the North Atlantic Alliance are just some of the issues that require firm and consistent U.S. leadership.

How the United States has, and should continue, to deal with these issues is the subject of this collective effort. In addition to assessing past and present challenges to U.S. and Western security interests and objectives in Europe, the authors also analyze the strategies and policies of the Department of Defense in this crucial region of the world. Recommendations for consideration by officials include the need for a lighter leadership touch in some areas and for stronger encouragement in others. However, let there be no doubt that a U.S. policy toward Europe of stasis or benign neglect should be rejected. The United States is a European power by virtue of its history, current commitments, and strategic and political exigencies. Finding the most efficacious means of achieving these national objectives, while working to effect a Europe whole and free, is the daunting long-term task to be faced.
Future Leadership, Old Issues, New Methods

Douglas V. Johnson Dr.

Each year, the Army After Next Seminar students are asked to orient their Strategy Research Papers on topics appropriate to the programs 30-years in the future focus. Thirty years ago, the United States Army was deeply involved in Vietnam and in the Cold War. Officers could reasonably expect to serve repetitive tours in Southeast Asia interspersed with tours along either the Korean Demilitarized Zone or the Inter-German Border. The tension between sometimes guerrilla, sometimes major warfare in the Pacific and the prospects of nuclear war in Europe made any prognostications of a future like that which we currently enjoy an exercise in silliness. Yet we are now asking officers to make such prognostications with the end in view that they might be less surprised by whatever does come into being.
Prevailing in a Well-Armed World: Devising Competitive Strategies Against Weapons Proliferation

Henry D. Sokolski Mr.

This book provides insights into the competitive strategies methodology. Andrew Marshall notes that policymakers and analysts can benefit by using an analytical tool that stimulates their thinking about strategy in terms of long-term competition between nations with conflicting values, policies, and objectives. The book also demonstrates the strengths of the competitive strategies approach as an instrument for examining U.S. policy. The method focuses on policies regarding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In shaping the international environment in the next millennium, no other national security issue seems as complex or important. The imperative here is to look to competitive strategies to assist in asking critical questions and thinking both broadly, as well as more precisely, about alternatives for pitting U.S. strengths against opponents weaknesses in global, regional or interstate competitions. Part I suggests that the competitive strategies approach has value for both the practitioner and the scholar. Part II uses the framework to examine and evaluate U.S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policies formed in the final years of the 20th century. In Part III, the competitive strategies method is used to analyze a regional case, that of Iran.
The United States and Colombia: Untying the Gordian Knot

David Passage Ambassador

Twenty-five years after the end of the Vietnam War, the ghost of that war still haunts the corridors of the decision makers when it comes to making long-term commitments to situations that remotely resemble anything like our Indochina experience. That is the case in with Colombia, which is embroiled in an internecine struggle with two guerrilla movements bent on overthrowing the government as well as from narcotraffickers. The author details the complicated but increasingly clear nexus between the political and social insurgencies and the drug traffickers. This, he maintains, has obliged a highly reluctant United States to reexamine whether its counternarcotics strategy can succeed if it is not accompanied by a willingness to assist the Colombian government improve its ability to defeat guerrillas and regain control of its national territory. If the United States is to become even more involved in the internal struggles in Colombia, it is a good bet the U.S. Army will play an important role.
The United States and Latin America: Shaping an Elusive Future

Donald E. Schulz Dr.

The demise of the Cold War has produced not an "End of History" but a "New World Disorder," which may well become more tumultuous in the decades ahead. Thus, it is crucial at this turn of the millennium to reconsider the prospects for regional security, the challenges that both new and old dangers may pose to U.S. interests, and the kind of strategy and policies that might enable the United States to both better cope with current problems and head off those that are just over the horizon.

The author first analyzes U.S. security interests in Latin America, then goes on to survey the primary challenges to those interests, and how well U.S. strategy and policy are equipped to cope with them. He suggests how the security environment is likely to change over the next quarter century, both in terms of the new dangers that may arise and the evolution of problems that already exist. His conclusion that we are not strategically equipped to face the future is a disturbing one, for Latin America's importance to the United States is growing fast even as our attention is flagging. Will we have the insight to recognize our own interests, the will to commit sufficient resources to attain them, and the intellectual wherewithal to relate our means to our ends?
Refining American Strategy in Africa

Steven Metz Dr.

The author provides a broad overview of the African security environment as a basis for recommendations on the refinement of American strategy in that region. He assesses both the opportunities for positive change which exist today, and the obstacles. While only Africans themselves can determine the future of their region, an American strategy which discourages proxy aggression, encourages private initiatives in the economic and political spheres, and uses the U.S. military, particularly the Army, to engage its African counterparts could pay great dividends. American defense strategy calls for using the military to help shape the global security environment, preempting and deterring conflict and building regional mechanisms for security. This is a particularly wise approach to Sub-Saharan Africa.
Asia-Pacific Security: China's Conditional Multilateralism and Great Power Entente

Jing-dong Yuan Dr.

According to Dr. Jing-dong Yuan, China now recognizes that multilateral engagement is unavoidable and indeed can be useful in advancing China's interests. China's embrace of multilateralism, however, varies depending upon the particular forum and specific issue. Furthermore, Dr. Yuan contends China remains leery of entering into arrangements that might constrain its independence and flexibility. This change in China's attitude toward multilateralism is a significant one that has important implications for U.S. national security strategy and for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific.
Army Professionalism, the Military Ethic, and Officership in the 21st Century

John A. Nagl Major, C. Anthony Pfaff Dr., and Don M. Snider Dr.

The authors address what they—and many others—perceived to be a decline in military professionalism in the Army officer corps. The authors first describe the ethical, technical, and political components of military professionalism and then address the causes for the decline. They conclude by proposing a set of principles which, if adhered to, will reinvigorate the vision of the officer corps and motivate the corps to selfless service.
The Chinese Armed Forces in the 21st Century

Larry M. Wortzel Dr.

This book is a serious look at the armed forces of China and how they will evolve. The chapters in this volume were developed from papers prepared for the eighth in a series of conferences on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The people at the conferences were recognized experts on armed forces and security matters in China drawn from academia, government, the military, and policy think tanks. Each chapter author was challenged to envision some aspect of the Chinese armed forces into the next century. The goal was to paint a realistic view of how domestic and international pressures would shape both Beijing's and Taipei's security environment.
Land Power and Dual Containment: Rethinking America's Policy in the Gulf

Stephen C. Pelletiere Dr.

In an attempt to regain some control of the strategic commodity, Washington developed special relationships with the two foremost oil procedures, Iran (under the Shah) and Saudi Arabia. In 1979 the Shah was overthrown and, with the rise of the Ayatollah Khomeini, America became—in the eyes of Iranians—the Great Satan. By 1991, with the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf war, America was once again the dominant power in the region. But, as this study shows, America's position is hardly secure. Much of the difficulty Washington is experiencing derives from what the author regards as a poorly conceived policy. Dual Containment, promulgated in 1993, was supposed to constrain the two most powerful area states, Iran and Iraq, by imposing harsh economic sanctions on them. But, the author contends, the policy has only antagonized America's allies, while Baghdad and Tehran continue to defy Washington and threaten the oil sheikhdoms Washington is trying to protect. The Dual Containment policy must be changed, the author believes. And foremost, the practice of trying to police Iraq by aerial bombing should be abandoned. This tactic is counterproductive, according to the author; it is driving the Iraqis to rally behind the regime of Saddam Hussein, the very outcome Washington is seeking to discourage.
The Fog of Peace: Finding the End-State of Hostilities

Manfred K. Rotermund Mr.

The author provides us with a new way of thinking about peace and how to achieve it. Peace, he argues, arrives only when domestically centered progress is established in a post-conflict environment. The end of hostilities is only the end of the shooting. It is not the end of danger. It is not the end of the animosities or typically the conditions leading to the hostilities. As a result, the end of hostilities represents the beginning of a transition to peace—not peace itself.
America's Army in Transition: Preparing for War in the Precision Age

Robert H. Scales Major General

The following two articles were written during and immediately after the war in Kosovo. The first is an adaptation of an earlier work written after a trip to Asia in 1998. In that essay, I suggested that foreign militaries were beginning to perceive our fixation on a firepower-centered way of war as an exploitable weakness. In fact, some states, armed with experience gained against us in real war, had already begun to evolve a doctrine to counter our superiority in precision. These potential adversaries concluded that dispersion, deception, patience and a willingness to absorb punishment offered them the means to endure precision strike long enough to outlast a technologically superior foe. Subsequent practical experience in Kosovo caused me to modify this thesis somewhat, but not much.

The "From Korea to Kosovo" article was written after a visit to Albania in May 1999. There I developed the central thesis for this essay: In wars of limited liability, success must be gained with a limited expenditure of means. A brief review of recent history tells us that we have been practically learning this lesson in real wars for half a century, beginning with Korea. The imperative to prepare for a full-scale war against the Soviets, however, has effectively impeded our ability to embed this lesson into our warfighting doctrine. Kosovo is a wake-up call. This article concludes with a maneuver warfare concept for this new era of limited liability wars in the Precision Age.
China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States

Mark A. Stokes Major

Conventional wisdom portrays the People's Republic of China (PRC) People's Liberation Army (PLA) as a backward continental force that will not pose a military challenge to its neighbors or to the United States well into the 21st century. PLA writings that demonstrate interest in exploiting the revolution in military affairs (RMA) are dismissed by a large segment of the PLA- watching community as wistful fantasies. The author offers an alternative perspective by outlining emerging PLA operational concepts and a range of research and development projects that appear to have been heavily influenced by U.S. and Russian writings on the RMA. Fulfillment of the PLA's vision for the 21st century could have significant repercussions for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
Security and Civil-Military Relations in the New World Disorder: The Use of Armed Forces in the Americas

Max G. Manwaring Dr.

In December 1998, the U.S. Army War College joined with the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army and the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University to cosponsor a conference entitled "The Use of Land Forces in the Americas." It was held on December 15, 1998, at the Bush School and was hosted by the President of Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Lieutenant General Marc Cisneros, USA (Retired). The various presentations, the level and scope of participation, the candor of the dialogue, the outstanding support provided by the cosponsors, and the relaxed atmosphere generated by the personal efforts of General Cisneros and former President Bush all contributed to a forward-looking and fruitful meeting. This book stems from the symposium, however it is not a comprehensive record of the proceedings. Rather, the book is organized as an anthology of the best of a series of excellent symposium presentations, revised in light of the discussions that took place there, and complemented by an explanation of the strategic interests of the United States in Latin America and an overview. The anthology examines the major political, economic, and social trends in Latin America; strategic issues that relate to the use of U.S. armed forces in the Americas; and, civil-military relations for now and the future.
The Growing Imperative to Adopt "Flexibility" as an American Principle of War

Robert S. Frost Lieutenant Colonel

The author makes it clear that he is not interested in throwing out the old tried and true existing Principles of War, he only wants thought given to their expansion to include a principle of Flexibility. After all, the hallmark of the course of instruction at the U.S. Army War College is the new environment in which its graduates should expect to operate--an environment that we at the War College characterize as vague, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. In such an environment, the author argues, Flexibility must be an operating principle, and it would serve all the services well to recognize it as such.