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Prevailing in a Well-Armed World: Devising Competitive Strategies Against Weapons Proliferation
Henry D. Sokolski Mr.
This book provides insights into the competitive strategies methodology. Andrew Marshall notes that policymakers and analysts can benefit by using an analytical tool that stimulates their thinking about strategy in terms of long-term competition between nations with conflicting values, policies, and objectives. The book also demonstrates the strengths of the competitive strategies approach as an instrument for examining U.S. policy. The method focuses on policies regarding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In shaping the international environment in the next millennium, no other national security issue seems as complex or important. The imperative here is to look to competitive strategies to assist in asking critical questions and thinking both broadly, as well as more precisely, about alternatives for pitting U.S. strengths against opponents weaknesses in global, regional or interstate competitions. Part I suggests that the competitive strategies approach has value for both the practitioner and the scholar. Part II uses the framework to examine and evaluate U.S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policies formed in the final years of the 20th century. In Part III, the competitive strategies method is used to analyze a regional case, that of Iran.
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The United States and Colombia: Untying the Gordian Knot
David Passage Ambassador
Twenty-five years after the end of the Vietnam War, the ghost of that war still haunts the corridors of the decision makers when it comes to making long-term commitments to situations that remotely resemble anything like our Indochina experience. That is the case in with Colombia, which is embroiled in an internecine struggle with two guerrilla movements bent on overthrowing the government as well as from narcotraffickers. The author details the complicated but increasingly clear nexus between the political and social insurgencies and the drug traffickers. This, he maintains, has obliged a highly reluctant United States to reexamine whether its counternarcotics strategy can succeed if it is not accompanied by a willingness to assist the Colombian government improve its ability to defeat guerrillas and regain control of its national territory. If the United States is to become even more involved in the internal struggles in Colombia, it is a good bet the U.S. Army will play an important role.
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The United States and Latin America: Shaping an Elusive Future
Donald E. Schulz Dr.
The demise of the Cold War has produced not an "End of History" but a "New World Disorder," which may well become more tumultuous in the decades ahead. Thus, it is crucial at this turn of the millennium to reconsider the prospects for regional security, the challenges that both new and old dangers may pose to U.S. interests, and the kind of strategy and policies that might enable the United States to both better cope with current problems and head off those that are just over the horizon.
The author first analyzes U.S. security interests in Latin America, then goes on to survey the primary challenges to those interests, and how well U.S. strategy and policy are equipped to cope with them. He suggests how the security environment is likely to change over the next quarter century, both in terms of the new dangers that may arise and the evolution of problems that already exist. His conclusion that we are not strategically equipped to face the future is a disturbing one, for Latin America's importance to the United States is growing fast even as our attention is flagging. Will we have the insight to recognize our own interests, the will to commit sufficient resources to attain them, and the intellectual wherewithal to relate our means to our ends? -
Refining American Strategy in Africa
Steven Metz Dr.
The author provides a broad overview of the African security environment as a basis for recommendations on the refinement of American strategy in that region. He assesses both the opportunities for positive change which exist today, and the obstacles. While only Africans themselves can determine the future of their region, an American strategy which discourages proxy aggression, encourages private initiatives in the economic and political spheres, and uses the U.S. military, particularly the Army, to engage its African counterparts could pay great dividends. American defense strategy calls for using the military to help shape the global security environment, preempting and deterring conflict and building regional mechanisms for security. This is a particularly wise approach to Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Asia-Pacific Security: China's Conditional Multilateralism and Great Power Entente
Jing-dong Yuan Dr.
According to Dr. Jing-dong Yuan, China now recognizes that multilateral engagement is unavoidable and indeed can be useful in advancing China's interests. China's embrace of multilateralism, however, varies depending upon the particular forum and specific issue. Furthermore, Dr. Yuan contends China remains leery of entering into arrangements that might constrain its independence and flexibility. This change in China's attitude toward multilateralism is a significant one that has important implications for U.S. national security strategy and for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific.
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Army Professionalism, the Military Ethic, and Officership in the 21st Century
John A. Nagl Major, C. Anthony Pfaff Dr., and Don M. Snider Dr.
The authors address what they—and many others—perceived to be a decline in military professionalism in the Army officer corps. The authors first describe the ethical, technical, and political components of military professionalism and then address the causes for the decline. They conclude by proposing a set of principles which, if adhered to, will reinvigorate the vision of the officer corps and motivate the corps to selfless service.
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The Chinese Armed Forces in the 21st Century
Larry M. Wortzel Dr.
This book is a serious look at the armed forces of China and how they will evolve. The chapters in this volume were developed from papers prepared for the eighth in a series of conferences on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The people at the conferences were recognized experts on armed forces and security matters in China drawn from academia, government, the military, and policy think tanks. Each chapter author was challenged to envision some aspect of the Chinese armed forces into the next century. The goal was to paint a realistic view of how domestic and international pressures would shape both Beijing's and Taipei's security environment.
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Land Power and Dual Containment: Rethinking America's Policy in the Gulf
Stephen C. Pelletiere Dr.
In an attempt to regain some control of the strategic commodity, Washington developed special relationships with the two foremost oil procedures, Iran (under the Shah) and Saudi Arabia. In 1979 the Shah was overthrown and, with the rise of the Ayatollah Khomeini, America became—in the eyes of Iranians—the Great Satan. By 1991, with the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf war, America was once again the dominant power in the region. But, as this study shows, America's position is hardly secure. Much of the difficulty Washington is experiencing derives from what the author regards as a poorly conceived policy. Dual Containment, promulgated in 1993, was supposed to constrain the two most powerful area states, Iran and Iraq, by imposing harsh economic sanctions on them. But, the author contends, the policy has only antagonized America's allies, while Baghdad and Tehran continue to defy Washington and threaten the oil sheikhdoms Washington is trying to protect. The Dual Containment policy must be changed, the author believes. And foremost, the practice of trying to police Iraq by aerial bombing should be abandoned. This tactic is counterproductive, according to the author; it is driving the Iraqis to rally behind the regime of Saddam Hussein, the very outcome Washington is seeking to discourage.
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The Fog of Peace: Finding the End-State of Hostilities
Manfred K. Rotermund Mr.
The author provides us with a new way of thinking about peace and how to achieve it. Peace, he argues, arrives only when domestically centered progress is established in a post-conflict environment. The end of hostilities is only the end of the shooting. It is not the end of danger. It is not the end of the animosities or typically the conditions leading to the hostilities. As a result, the end of hostilities represents the beginning of a transition to peace—not peace itself.
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America's Army in Transition: Preparing for War in the Precision Age
Robert H. Scales Major General
The following two articles were written during and immediately after the war in Kosovo. The first is an adaptation of an earlier work written after a trip to Asia in 1998. In that essay, I suggested that foreign militaries were beginning to perceive our fixation on a firepower-centered way of war as an exploitable weakness. In fact, some states, armed with experience gained against us in real war, had already begun to evolve a doctrine to counter our superiority in precision. These potential adversaries concluded that dispersion, deception, patience and a willingness to absorb punishment offered them the means to endure precision strike long enough to outlast a technologically superior foe. Subsequent practical experience in Kosovo caused me to modify this thesis somewhat, but not much.
The "From Korea to Kosovo" article was written after a visit to Albania in May 1999. There I developed the central thesis for this essay: In wars of limited liability, success must be gained with a limited expenditure of means. A brief review of recent history tells us that we have been practically learning this lesson in real wars for half a century, beginning with Korea. The imperative to prepare for a full-scale war against the Soviets, however, has effectively impeded our ability to embed this lesson into our warfighting doctrine. Kosovo is a wake-up call. This article concludes with a maneuver warfare concept for this new era of limited liability wars in the Precision Age. -
China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States
Mark A. Stokes Major
Conventional wisdom portrays the People's Republic of China (PRC) People's Liberation Army (PLA) as a backward continental force that will not pose a military challenge to its neighbors or to the United States well into the 21st century. PLA writings that demonstrate interest in exploiting the revolution in military affairs (RMA) are dismissed by a large segment of the PLA- watching community as wistful fantasies. The author offers an alternative perspective by outlining emerging PLA operational concepts and a range of research and development projects that appear to have been heavily influenced by U.S. and Russian writings on the RMA. Fulfillment of the PLA's vision for the 21st century could have significant repercussions for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Security and Civil-Military Relations in the New World Disorder: The Use of Armed Forces in the Americas
Max G. Manwaring Dr.
In December 1998, the U.S. Army War College joined with the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army and the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University to cosponsor a conference entitled "The Use of Land Forces in the Americas." It was held on December 15, 1998, at the Bush School and was hosted by the President of Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Lieutenant General Marc Cisneros, USA (Retired). The various presentations, the level and scope of participation, the candor of the dialogue, the outstanding support provided by the cosponsors, and the relaxed atmosphere generated by the personal efforts of General Cisneros and former President Bush all contributed to a forward-looking and fruitful meeting. This book stems from the symposium, however it is not a comprehensive record of the proceedings. Rather, the book is organized as an anthology of the best of a series of excellent symposium presentations, revised in light of the discussions that took place there, and complemented by an explanation of the strategic interests of the United States in Latin America and an overview. The anthology examines the major political, economic, and social trends in Latin America; strategic issues that relate to the use of U.S. armed forces in the Americas; and, civil-military relations for now and the future.
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The Growing Imperative to Adopt "Flexibility" as an American Principle of War
Robert S. Frost Lieutenant Colonel
The author makes it clear that he is not interested in throwing out the old tried and true existing Principles of War, he only wants thought given to their expansion to include a principle of Flexibility. After all, the hallmark of the course of instruction at the U.S. Army War College is the new environment in which its graduates should expect to operate--an environment that we at the War College characterize as vague, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. In such an environment, the author argues, Flexibility must be an operating principle, and it would serve all the services well to recognize it as such.
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Mediterranean Security into the Coming Millennium
Stephen J. Blank Dr.
The papers included in this volume represent just such an effort to lay a firmer foundation for this continuing dialogue and to bring together different points of view. In October 1998, the Strategic Studies Institute, assisted by Pepperdine University, assembled a distinguished group of analysts from the United States, Europe, and the Middle East, in Florence, Italy. At a conference titled "Mediterranean Security into the Coming Millennium," the task of the participants was to address current regional security issues in the Balkans, Middle East, and the Aegean, as well as the perceptions of the individual states, the relevant security organizations, NATO and the European Union, and the players and major external actors like the United States and Russia. These papers cover the many areas discussed at the conference and should advance the debate on Mediterranean security both in the United States and abroad.
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Population Diversity and the U.S. Army
Lloyd J. Matthews Colonel and Tinaz Pavri Dr.
The Army War College, through its Strategic Outreach Program, makes a concerted effort to connect with various American civilian entities not only to promote mutual understanding, but also to find collaborative solutions for military problems that ultimately affect all Americans. Spelman College, positioned at the core of the network of historically black colleges in Atlanta and having a student body of black women, provided an ideal venue for examining issues regarding demographic and ethnic change that we expect in America over the next several decades. We should acknowledge as well the yeoman assistance of the U.S. Army Recruiting Command located at Fort Knox, Kentucky, which provided to conferees useful briefings wholly devoid of academic vapors, focusing rather upon the unvarnished realities of future projections of the composition of America's population. Our Recruiting Command colleagues also discussed in clear terms the Army's efforts to enlist women and members of other diverse groups in the recruiting market of today-- and what we can expect tomorrow.
This book is not intended as a transcript of all conference proceedings. Rather, it is an anthology of selected presentations that not only portrays the main challenges confronting those who must staff the future force in the face of unprecedented demographic flux, but also provides the attitudes and hopes of women and minorities who are part of today's Army. The reader should pay particular attention to Chapter 2, which examines the Russian military. Its author, Robert Pringle, gives us a case study in what happens when an institution collapses because it can not accommodate diversity and change. -
Future Warfare
Robert H. Scales Major General
Throughout U.S. history, the American military services have had an unfortunate penchant for not being ready for the next war. Part of the problem has had to do with factors beyond their control: the American policy has been notoriously slow to respond to the challenges posed by dangerous enemies. On the other hand, American military institutions have been surprisingly optimistic in weighing their preparedness as they embarked on the nation's wars. The first battles involving American military forces hardly give reason for optimism. The initial defeats in the War of 1812, Bull Run, Belleau Woods, Savo Island, Kasserine Pass, Task Force Smith, and Landing Zone Albany hardly suggest unalloyed success by America's military in preparing for the next war. Admittedly, in each of its major wars the United States did enjoy the luxury of time to repair the deficiencies that showed up so glaringly in the country's first battles. Unfortunately, in the 21st century the United States may not have that luxury of time. Whatever approaches the American military take to innovation, war will occur. And it will provide a harsh audit. Almost certainly the next war will take the United States by surprise. U.S. military institutions may well have prepared for some other form of warfare, in some other location. To paraphrase Omar Bradley: it may well be the wrong war, in the wrong place, at the wrong time. But there it will be, and the American military will have to fight that conflict on its terms rather than their own. Unfortunately, military history is replete with examples of military institutions that have refused to adapt to the real conditions of war, but rather have attempted to impose their own paradigm--no matter how irrelevant or ill-suited to the actual conditions.
If we cannot predict where the next war will occur or what form it will take, there are some things for which the American military can prepare as they enter the next millennium. Obviously, the services have to prepare the physical condition and training of soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen. But equally important, they must prepare the minds of the next generation of military leaders to handle the challenges of the battlefield. And that mental preparation will be more important than all the technological wizardry U.S. forces can bring to bear in combat. Most important in that intellectual preparation must be a recognition of what will not change: the fundamental nature of war, the fact that fog, friction, ambiguity, and uncertainty will dominate the battlefields of the future just as they have those of the past. -
Transnational Threats from the Middle East: Crying Wolf or Crying Havoc?
Anthony H. Cordesman Prof.
There is no doubt that the Middle East can present significant potential threats to the West. The author of this monograph examines these threats in order to put them into perspective--to distinguish between "crying wolf" and "crying havoc." After thorough analysis, he contends that the problems caused by narcotics and organized crime, immigration, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction do not as yet require draconian action by the Western nations. However, he asserts that if the threats of Middle Eastern terrorism and proliferation were to be combined into super- terrorism, the result would create a new form of asymmetric warfare for which the West is singularly ill-prepared. Professor Anthony H. Cordesman, an internationally recognized expert of long-standing on these issues, has provided this comprehensive assessment. Presented originally at the U.S. Army War College--Pepperdine University cosponsored conference on Mediterranean Security into the Coming Millennium, held October 26-27,1998, in Florence, Italy, his appraisal is a valuable reference for analysts who are studying the potential consequences of these threats to U.S. security.
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The Future U.S. Military Presence in Asia: Landpower and the Geostrategy of American Commitment
Larry M. Wortzel Dr. and Robert H. Scales Major General
The United States strategic framework in the Pacific has three parts: peacetime engagement, as described above, which includes a forward presence; crisis response, which builds on forward-stationed forces, the "boots-on-the ground" and, if necessary, fighting and winning any conflict that might develop. The mechanisms to carry out this strategic framework are embedded in the regular contacts and engagement activities that the United States carries out with friends and allies in the region. What the future will look like in Asia will be determined largely on what happens on the Korean Peninsula. It could be changed by such eventualities as a resurgent, expansionist, or nationalistic Russia. But the dialogue that is taking place among strategists in Seoul and Tokyo needs to be broadened to include the United States. It also must become a public debate. The "tyranny of distance" requires a United States military presence, and the governments of Korea and Japan must involve their own voters in a civil debate, setting forth the case for a new security structure. This is important not only for domestic political reasons in Asia, but because the American people need to know that there is a civil debate about the subject among their allies, and that the alliances that have kept Asia safe, peaceful and prosperous for 55 years are still useful, welcome, and healthy.
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Colombia's Three Wars: U.S. Strategy at the Crossroads
Gabriel Marcella Dr. and Donald E. Schulz Dr.
Colombia is the most troubled country in the Western Hemisphere. Drug criminals, guerrillas, and paramilitary groups are feeding a spiral of violence that makes "colombianization" a metaphor for a failing state. The authors address the strategic dimensions of the crisis. It argues that Colombia's future deeply affects regional security and U.S. interests. The country's afflictions are spilling over its borders, threatening Venezuela, Panama, Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, Mexico, and the Caribbean. At the same time, Colombia is the origin of most of the cocaine and heroin entering the United States. The fear is that, if the situation continues to worsen, the country may become balkanized, with large areas under the de facto control of guerrilla and paramilitary regimes based, in large part, on narco-economies.
U.S. policy is now at a critical juncture. A decision has been made to become more engaged in the war against narcotrafficking. Yet, the question remains: Can counternarcotics be separated from counterinsurgency? The authors believe that it cannot—that everything is related to everything else—and that unless the Colombian and U.S. governments address the problem through the creation of a coherent, holistic strategy, the situation will become much worse. In the latter half of their report, they discuss both the military and nonmilitary components of such a strategy. Among other things, they contend that restrictions on U.S. police training and counterinsurgency assistance should be removed or revised in order to enable the Colombian security forces to halt the momentum of the insurgents and paramilitaries and give them incentives to negotiate seriously. They also argue that a respect for human rights is of strategic importance. -
Landpower and Ambiguous Warfare: The Challenge of Colombia in the 21st Century
Richard Downes Dr.
On December 10 and 11, 1998, over 100 scholars, civilian government officials, and military officers from the United States, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panama and Mexico gathered at the U.S. Army War College to discuss "Landpower and Ambiguous Warfare: The Challenge of Colombia in the 21st Century." While the conference adopted no resolutions or conclusions, it provided a valuable forum for expressing widely differing viewpoints on critical components of Colombia's security situation. The meeting highlighted the urgency of the Colombian crisis and the need for a comprehensive response by Colombia, the United States, and the regional community of nations. Much of the dialogue developed the principal subthemes of the conference: the sources of violence; the role of the guerrillas, paramilitaries, and narcotraffickers; the institutional capabilities and responses of the Colombian government and armed forces; and the role of the United States. Here, there was sharp disagreement among the participants, with some arguing in favor of an increased U.S. counternarcotics and/or counterinsurgency role and others emphasizing the priority of the peace process. This report summarizes the issues addressed and the major concerns of the attendees. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer the monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on Colombia within the United States and abroad.
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Pacific Security Today: Overcoming the Hurdles
Thomas M. Molino Mr.
In November 1998, Science Applications International Corporation's (SAIC) Center for Global Security and Cooperation, in conjunction with the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), cosponsored its first Asia security conference at the NPS in Monterey, California. Entitled the Annual Conference on Pacific Security Today, the conference sought to focus on Asia-Pacific security issues by opening a dialogue among government policymakers, scholars, and military leaders. The cosponsors of the Annual Conference on Pacific Security Today placed a high emphasis on dialogue and an open exchange of ideas at this initial meeting, with the objective of increasing understanding of the challenges facing participants in the upcoming Asian Century. The Asia-Pacific region is endowed with a wide variety of unique cultures, diverse languages, multifaceted religions, and complex political systems. Each of these elements has an impact on foreign and security relations in the region, thereby underscoring the need to use open dialogue as a tool for assessing and addressing the intricacies of Asia-Pacific security issues. The cosponsors believe that the conference achieved its intended objectives. Most importantly, it opened channels of communication for the exchange of ideas and viewpoints that can help those involved in the Asia-Pacific security arena more fully understand the complex issues before them. Furthermore, this conference set the foundation for future meetings, which will tackle such topical issues as the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis and U.S.-Chinese cooperation in the Pacific. Future conferences will also include additional representatives from the Pacific Rim.
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East Asia in Crisis: The Security Implications of the Collapse of Economic Institutions
Stephen J. Blank Dr.
The challenges to the United States and to its armed forces are numerous and highly significant. Moreover, we must begin to address them now even if other institutions cannot or will not do so with us. Those crises comprise ASEAN's decline as a meaningful security provider, Russia's collapse, Japan's stagnation, South Korea's unresolved democratic transition in economics and politics, Seoul's and Tokyo's inability or growing reluctance to support the 1994 nuclear accord with North Korea, the danger of an unforeseeable crisis emerging in North Korea, and most of all the rise of China with nobody but the United States to counter or balance it. The challenge confronting the United States and its allies involves nothing less then the creation of a new, legitimate order in Asia. That order must be shaped and created very much by the leadership of the United States in all fields of national power: diplomacy, economics, trade, investment, finance, defense, and culture. But doing so requires a strong U.S. leadership that will tie all these elements of power together in a comprehensive, politically persuasive vision, and the fortitude to implement them at home and abroad.
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Technology and the 21st Century Battlefield: Recomplicating Moral Life for the Statesman and the Soldier
Charles J. Dunlap Colonel
The author starts from the traditional American notion that technology might offer a way to decrease the horror and suffering of warfare. He points out that historically this assumption is flawed in that past technological advances, from gunpowder weapons to bombers, have only made warfare more--not less--bloody. With a relentless logic, Colonel Dunlap takes to task those who say that the Revolution in Military Affairs has the potential to make war less bloody. He covers the technological landscape from precision-guided munitions and Information Warfare to the use of space for military operations to raise issues that could pose difficult ethical, legal and moral problems for statesmen and soldiers. Some of these conundrums are so confounding that the author could claim that in all humility his only purpose was to raise these issues to prompt debate. But Colonel Dunlap takes the next step to outline several broad thematic avenues that may help us all address the difficult problems that lie ahead.
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Warriors in Peace Operations
Douglas V. Johnson Dr.
This collection of monographs has been assembled from the 42 Personal Experience Monographs written by the U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Class of 1998. The Personal Experience Monograph program was instituted immediately after the Gulf War with the original purpose of capturing first-person histories of various aspects of that war. The program rapidly expanded to include any military experience that might prove useful to others. When the USAWC Class of 1998 arrived, it was evident that a great many had recent experience in Bosnia that might prove useful to others who would eventually serve there. The collection assembled here was chosen for the wide variation of branch functions and the centrality of the initial deployment issues addressed. The authors speak for themselves with minimal editorial interference.
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America's Army: Preparing for Tomorrow's Security Challenges
Robert H. Scales Major General
During the early decades of the 21st Century, the Army of 2025 will differ from today's Army in two distinct ways. First, it will achieve unprecedented strategic and operational speed by exploiting information technologies to create a knowledge-based organization. Second, it will exhibit tremendous flexibility and physical agility through streamlined, seamlessly integrated organizations that use new tactics and procedures. The collective result will be a versatile, full spectrum, capabilities-based force that can decisively respond to any future global contingency. As the world begins a new age and a new century, the Army is preparing for the next kind of war that will emerge.
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