Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The Future U.S. Military Presence in Asia: Landpower and the Geostrategy of American Commitment

Larry M. Wortzel Dr. and Robert H. Scales Major General

The United States strategic framework in the Pacific has three parts: peacetime engagement, as described above, which includes a forward presence; crisis response, which builds on forward-stationed forces, the "boots-on-the ground" and, if necessary, fighting and winning any conflict that might develop. The mechanisms to carry out this strategic framework are embedded in the regular contacts and engagement activities that the United States carries out with friends and allies in the region. What the future will look like in Asia will be determined largely on what happens on the Korean Peninsula. It could be changed by such eventualities as a resurgent, expansionist, or nationalistic Russia. But the dialogue that is taking place among strategists in Seoul and Tokyo needs to be broadened to include the United States. It also must become a public debate. The "tyranny of distance" requires a United States military presence, and the governments of Korea and Japan must involve their own voters in a civil debate, setting forth the case for a new security structure. This is important not only for domestic political reasons in Asia, but because the American people need to know that there is a civil debate about the subject among their allies, and that the alliances that have kept Asia safe, peaceful and prosperous for 55 years are still useful, welcome, and healthy.
Colombia's Three Wars: U.S. Strategy at the Crossroads

Gabriel Marcella Dr. and Donald E. Schulz Dr.

Colombia is the most troubled country in the Western Hemisphere. Drug criminals, guerrillas, and paramilitary groups are feeding a spiral of violence that makes "colombianization" a metaphor for a failing state. The authors address the strategic dimensions of the crisis. It argues that Colombia's future deeply affects regional security and U.S. interests. The country's afflictions are spilling over its borders, threatening Venezuela, Panama, Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, Mexico, and the Caribbean. At the same time, Colombia is the origin of most of the cocaine and heroin entering the United States. The fear is that, if the situation continues to worsen, the country may become balkanized, with large areas under the de facto control of guerrilla and paramilitary regimes based, in large part, on narco-economies.

U.S. policy is now at a critical juncture. A decision has been made to become more engaged in the war against narcotrafficking. Yet, the question remains: Can counternarcotics be separated from counterinsurgency? The authors believe that it cannot—that everything is related to everything else—and that unless the Colombian and U.S. governments address the problem through the creation of a coherent, holistic strategy, the situation will become much worse. In the latter half of their report, they discuss both the military and nonmilitary components of such a strategy. Among other things, they contend that restrictions on U.S. police training and counterinsurgency assistance should be removed or revised in order to enable the Colombian security forces to halt the momentum of the insurgents and paramilitaries and give them incentives to negotiate seriously. They also argue that a respect for human rights is of strategic importance.
Landpower and Ambiguous Warfare: The Challenge of Colombia in the 21st Century

Richard Downes Dr.

On December 10 and 11, 1998, over 100 scholars, civilian government officials, and military officers from the United States, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panama and Mexico gathered at the U.S. Army War College to discuss "Landpower and Ambiguous Warfare: The Challenge of Colombia in the 21st Century." While the conference adopted no resolutions or conclusions, it provided a valuable forum for expressing widely differing viewpoints on critical components of Colombia's security situation. The meeting highlighted the urgency of the Colombian crisis and the need for a comprehensive response by Colombia, the United States, and the regional community of nations. Much of the dialogue developed the principal subthemes of the conference: the sources of violence; the role of the guerrillas, paramilitaries, and narcotraffickers; the institutional capabilities and responses of the Colombian government and armed forces; and the role of the United States. Here, there was sharp disagreement among the participants, with some arguing in favor of an increased U.S. counternarcotics and/or counterinsurgency role and others emphasizing the priority of the peace process. This report summarizes the issues addressed and the major concerns of the attendees. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer the monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on Colombia within the United States and abroad.
Pacific Security Today: Overcoming the Hurdles

Thomas M. Molino Mr.

In November 1998, Science Applications International Corporation's (SAIC) Center for Global Security and Cooperation, in conjunction with the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), cosponsored its first Asia security conference at the NPS in Monterey, California. Entitled the Annual Conference on Pacific Security Today, the conference sought to focus on Asia-Pacific security issues by opening a dialogue among government policymakers, scholars, and military leaders. The cosponsors of the Annual Conference on Pacific Security Today placed a high emphasis on dialogue and an open exchange of ideas at this initial meeting, with the objective of increasing understanding of the challenges facing participants in the upcoming Asian Century. The Asia-Pacific region is endowed with a wide variety of unique cultures, diverse languages, multifaceted religions, and complex political systems. Each of these elements has an impact on foreign and security relations in the region, thereby underscoring the need to use open dialogue as a tool for assessing and addressing the intricacies of Asia-Pacific security issues. The cosponsors believe that the conference achieved its intended objectives. Most importantly, it opened channels of communication for the exchange of ideas and viewpoints that can help those involved in the Asia-Pacific security arena more fully understand the complex issues before them. Furthermore, this conference set the foundation for future meetings, which will tackle such topical issues as the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis and U.S.-Chinese cooperation in the Pacific. Future conferences will also include additional representatives from the Pacific Rim.
East Asia in Crisis: The Security Implications of the Collapse of Economic Institutions

Stephen J. Blank Dr.

The challenges to the United States and to its armed forces are numerous and highly significant. Moreover, we must begin to address them now even if other institutions cannot or will not do so with us. Those crises comprise ASEAN's decline as a meaningful security provider, Russia's collapse, Japan's stagnation, South Korea's unresolved democratic transition in economics and politics, Seoul's and Tokyo's inability or growing reluctance to support the 1994 nuclear accord with North Korea, the danger of an unforeseeable crisis emerging in North Korea, and most of all the rise of China with nobody but the United States to counter or balance it. The challenge confronting the United States and its allies involves nothing less then the creation of a new, legitimate order in Asia. That order must be shaped and created very much by the leadership of the United States in all fields of national power: diplomacy, economics, trade, investment, finance, defense, and culture. But doing so requires a strong U.S. leadership that will tie all these elements of power together in a comprehensive, politically persuasive vision, and the fortitude to implement them at home and abroad.
Technology and the 21st Century Battlefield: Recomplicating Moral Life for the Statesman and the Soldier

Charles J. Dunlap Colonel

The author starts from the traditional American notion that technology might offer a way to decrease the horror and suffering of warfare. He points out that historically this assumption is flawed in that past technological advances, from gunpowder weapons to bombers, have only made warfare more--not less--bloody. With a relentless logic, Colonel Dunlap takes to task those who say that the Revolution in Military Affairs has the potential to make war less bloody. He covers the technological landscape from precision-guided munitions and Information Warfare to the use of space for military operations to raise issues that could pose difficult ethical, legal and moral problems for statesmen and soldiers. Some of these conundrums are so confounding that the author could claim that in all humility his only purpose was to raise these issues to prompt debate. But Colonel Dunlap takes the next step to outline several broad thematic avenues that may help us all address the difficult problems that lie ahead.
Warriors in Peace Operations

Douglas V. Johnson Dr.

This collection of monographs has been assembled from the 42 Personal Experience Monographs written by the U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Class of 1998. The Personal Experience Monograph program was instituted immediately after the Gulf War with the original purpose of capturing first-person histories of various aspects of that war. The program rapidly expanded to include any military experience that might prove useful to others. When the USAWC Class of 1998 arrived, it was evident that a great many had recent experience in Bosnia that might prove useful to others who would eventually serve there. The collection assembled here was chosen for the wide variation of branch functions and the centrality of the initial deployment issues addressed. The authors speak for themselves with minimal editorial interference.
America's Army: Preparing for Tomorrow's Security Challenges

Robert H. Scales Major General

During the early decades of the 21st Century, the Army of 2025 will differ from today's Army in two distinct ways. First, it will achieve unprecedented strategic and operational speed by exploiting information technologies to create a knowledge-based organization. Second, it will exhibit tremendous flexibility and physical agility through streamlined, seamlessly integrated organizations that use new tactics and procedures. The collective result will be a versatile, full spectrum, capabilities-based force that can decisively respond to any future global contingency. As the world begins a new age and a new century, the Army is preparing for the next kind of war that will emerge.
Security Implications of the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East

Sami G. Hajjar Dr.

This monograph addresses the important question of the security implications for the nations of the region of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer the monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this important issue. The author offers a unique perspective based on extensive interviews that he conducted in the region, and makes specific policy recommendations for U.S. military and civilian decisionmakers.
China's Military Potential

Larry M. Wortzel Dr.

This monograph provides an appraisal of the ability of the People's Republic of China (PRC) to build a credible military force in the 21st century. The author examines a complicated set of factors, which when taken together, equates to potential military power in China's case. Perhaps foremost among these factors is the PRC's current economic success and whether Beijing can transfer it to the military sphere. Colonel Wortzel concludes that China could become a military power in every sense, but the greater likelihood is that the PRC will be overcome by internal problems. Nonetheless, the growth in China's military potential bears careful watching by U.S. military planners.
Opening Pandora's Box: Ethnicity and Central Asian Militaries

Dianne L. Smith LTC

The author examines whether ethnic consciousness affects military service and the specific roles played by ethnic groups within the armed forces, or if military institutions affect ethnicity. The Soviets used military service as a tool to break down ethnicity and create a "New Soviet Man." They failed. Do Central Asian armed forces break down ethnic divisions and serve as a vehicle for social integration or do they reinforce ethnic consciousness within minorities and therefore sharpen ethnic polarization? Ethnicity tore the Soviet Union apart. Can the Central Asian states avoid that fate? Will their military forces help or hinder that process? Can the U.S. armed forces, which have a well-merited reputation for managing diversity, provide a role model to help promote stability in this increasingly important, energy rich, region?
The Economic Crisis and ASEAN States' Security

Sheldon W. Simon Dr.

Asia's financial crisis has quickly become a global one. Its implications far transcend purely economic or financial considerations. In fact, the crisis that began with the fall of Thailand's Baht in 1997 now embraces the entire world and has caused governments to fall in Asia and Russia. To understand the dynamics of the crisis and its consequences for U.S. security, the Strategic Studies Institute and the National Bureau of Research on Asia organized a conference in Seattle, Washington, on June 9-10, 1998. At that conference Professor Sheldon Simon presented this paper. He outlines the impact of this crisis on the security of Southeast Asian governments and armed forces. He assesses how this situation is affecting defense cooperation in Southeast Asia, the prospects for defense modernization in a constrained environment, and the need for the United States to find new modalities by which to achieve its regional security goals. He also underscores the connection between healthy economies and governments on the one hand and between those features and a robust national and regional defense capability. Precisely because this crisis will be of long duration and have a profound international impact, Asian security in the future will clearly be unlike what it has been in the past. Therefore it is essential that we keep abreast of the great changes taking place in this critical area of international security and provide solid analysis of how the situation will affect international security in Asia and elsewhere.
NATO After Enlargement: New Challenges, New Missions, New Forces

Stephen J. Blank Dr.

In 1999 NATO will formally admit three new members and adopt a new strategic concept. In so doing, it will take giant strides towards effecting a revolutionary transformation of European security. On the one hand, it could be said that NATO enlargement closes the immediate post-Cold War period that began with the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989. But on the other hand, enlargement raises a host of serious new issues for the Alliance and for U.S. policymakers that they must begin to address now. Bearing this fact in mind, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) organized a conference with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in January 1998 to explore the new challenges confronting the NATO Alliance. These essays are the product of that conference.
Breaking Away from the Bear

Dianne L. Smith LTC

Lieutenant Colonel Dianne L. Smith examines the development of post-Soviet Central Asian armed forces, Central Asian efforts to guarantee their national security, and the implications for the United States of this struggle. She cautions that the United States use its influence and its military-to-military contact programs judiciously. This is a region of great instability, with massive infusions of energy wealth just beyond the horizon. If these states can create viable methods to ensure domestic and regional security, this wealth may produce prosperity and secure well-being for their citizens. If these states fail to create institutions to preserve their national sovereignty, the new century could presage long, lingering chaos and waste on a grand scale. One need only look south to Afghanistan for such a model.
Defining U.S. Atlantic Command's Role in the Power Projection Strategy

Douglas C. Lovelace Professor and Thomas-Durell Young Dr.

The authors of this monograph argue that the lynch-pin in the power projection strategy of the United States is a completely transformed U.S. Atlantic Command (USACOM). The monograph details how USACOM has been allowed to "evolve" since its inception in 1993 but is yet to achieve its full potential for implementing the CONUS-based power projection strategy. Recognizing USACOM as a principal actor in support of this new strategy, the authors recommend that USACOM should be further transformed into a "Joint Forces Command." Their analysis exposes the need for a significant review of Title 10 of the U.S. Code and a reexamination of some of the fundamental tenets underlying the structure and command of the U.S. armed forces. The reappraisals they propose will impact the Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Joint Staff, the Military Departments, and the unified combatant commands in important ways.
Challenging the United States Symmetrically and Asymmetrically: Can America be Defeated?

Lloyd J. Matthews Colonel

The U.S. Army War College s Ninth Annual Strategy Conference was held at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, during the period March 31-April 2, 1998. The theme of the conference was Challenging the United States Symmetrically and Asymmetrically: Can America Be Defeated? There were some 150 attendees, including active duty military personnel as well as members of academe, the U.S. Defense and service departments, think tanks, corporations, and news media. This book is an outgrowth of that conference, though it makes no effort to present a comprehensive and literal record of events in the mold of traditional colloquium proceedings. Rather, the book is organized as an anthology of selected conference presentations, complemented by sufficient notice of roundtable and question-and-answer discussion to provide a glimpse of the vigorous interplay of ideas evoked by this most timely of topics.
Halt Phase Strategy: New Wine in Old Skins . . . with Powerpoint

Earl H. Tilford Dr.

Analyzes the Halt Phase Strategy/Doctrine currently advocated by the Air Force. As a part of his analysis, the author traces the immediate origins of Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review. Dr. Tilford contends, however, that Halt's real origins are more closely identified with intrinsic Air Force strategic bombing doctrine, and are to be found in strategies associated with atomic and nuclear deterrence and warfighting. Thus, he concludes that Halt is really "new wine in old skins" being presented today more aggressively because of rapid technological advances.
Nonlethality and American Land Power: Strategic Context and Operational Concepts

Douglas C. Lovelace Professor and Steven Metz Dr.

Nonlethal technology, concepts and doctrine may provide the Army a way to retain its political utility and military effectiveness in a security environment characterized by ambiguity and the glare of world public opinion. To explore this, the Army is undertaking programs and initiatives which may make it the driving force in nonlethality. The authors place nonlethality within its larger strategic context and explain how it is related to the revolution in military affairs. They then assess the arguments for and against the integration of nonlethality into American doctrine and procedures. Finally, they offer operational concepts which could serve as the basis for doctrine and for tactics, techniques, and procedures.
On Diversity

Andre H. Sayles LTC

Colonel Sayles logically and calmly asks questions about diversity and its effect on the future of organizations, individual soldiers, and leaders. He provides important arguments in support of the Army's Consideration of Others Program. His thought-provoking discussion of diversity in the military meets his goal of providing dialogue that will be "helpful in your efforts to achieve the understanding that we all seek" on this difficult subject--"On Diversity."
The Political-Military Rivalry for Operational Control in U.S. Military Actions: A Soldier's Perspective

Lloyd J. Matthews Colonel

The author presents a soldier's perspective of the operational implications of instant access to the battlefield by civilian leaders in Washington. It also suggests steps that might be taken to assure constructive collaboration between military and civil authorities, leaving each group to make its own essential contribution to success in the nation's military undertakings around the world.
Conflict and Conflict Resolution in the Sahel: The Tuareg Insurgency in Mali

Kalifa Keita Lieutenant Colonel

June 27, 1990, is a significant date in the recent history of Mali. It marks the beginning of what Malians call "The Second Tuareg Rebellion." The first had been staged against the post-colonial Malian government in 1963. The national government had suppressed that rebellion with harsh coercive measures, and the Tuaregs continued to nurture grievances. The second Tuareg rebellion coincided in the early 1990s with turbulent political developments in Malian society as a whole. It soon was clear that Mali's stability and progress were contingent on ending the insurgency. This, in turn, required a solution to Tuareg grievances. By the mid-1990s, Mali apparently had found a solution. Though by no means easy, or assured, that solution may provide useful insights into conflict resolution in the region as a whole. This study describes the nature of the Malian solution and indicates the reasons for its success to date. More specifically, this study considers the Tuareg rebellion from the perspective of a senior Malian military officer who lived the events. It describes a conflict little known and poorly reported outside of West Africa. It emphasizes the trauma of conflict in developing societies and the excruciatingly difficult political and economic choices faced by their leaders. It highlights the appropriate role of the international community in resolving such conflicts. Finally, it illustrates that resolution of intra-state conflict in Africa requires intensive efforts to secure the willing cooperation of local communities with military and civil government agencies.
Redefining Land Power for the 21st Century

William T. Johnsen Dr.

Divisive debates over the future force structures of the U.S. Armed Forces have continued despite the Report of the Commission on Roles and Missions for the Armed Forces (May 1995) and the more recent reports of the Quadrennial Defense Review (May 1997) and the National Defense Panel (December 1997). Part of the reason for the bitter nature of these debates is due to parochial partisanship. Part is due to a lack of clear understanding of the individual components of military power or of their collective interrelationships. This latter conclusion may be particularly true for land power. Responsibility for this misunderstanding does not always fall at the feet of outside observers. No official definition or general articulation of land power currently exists. And, because land power is self-evident to most who wear Army or Marine Corps green, they see little need to explain land power to a broader audience. But, if national leaders are to have a fuller under- standing of land power, its central role in the growing interdependence of military power, or the policy options that land power's versatility brings to security policy planning and execution, then such explanations are imperative. To help fill this conceptual gap, the author offers a definition of land power to meet the demands of the 21st century. While defining land power is his primary purpose, he also places land power within the overarching context of total military power. Additionally, he highlights the growing interdependence among the components of national power.
Reforming NATO's Military Structures: The Long-Term Study and Its Implications for Land Forces

Thomas-Durell Young Dr.

The contemporary debate over the expansion of NATO to include Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary has largely overshadowed an important effort on the part of the Alliance to achieve "internal adaptation" through the work of the Long-Term Study. Part of this process has been a tortuous attempt to reform and reorganize the Alliance's integrated command structure. Often taken for granted, this structure provides the basis for NATO's collective defense, and increasingly, as seen in Bosnia, its ability to undertake peace support operations. However, the very value by which nations hold the structure has resulted in a difficult and time-consuming reorganization process which has produced only limited reforms. It is indeed surprising that the reorganization of the bedrock of the Alliance's military structure has garnered only limited attention outside of NATO cognoscenti. This can be explained, in part, by the fact that until recently the Long-Term Study has been cloaked in secrecy. Most key aspects of the reform process are now out in the public and require debate: a task in which the Strategic Studies Institute is keen to assist. And, let there be no mistake that the proposed reforms outlined by Long-Term Study have major implications for land forces in the Alliance. As argued in this essay, there are a number of proposed reforms which could have fundamental negative implications for command of these forces.
The Creeping Irrelevance of U.S. Force Planning

Jeffrey Record Dr.

Jeffrey Record examines what he believes is a half-century-old and continuing recession of large-interstate warfare and, since the World War's demise, the unexpected and often violent disintegration of established states. He then addresses the Department of Defense's persistent planning focus on multiple conventional war scenarios, concluding that this focus on the familiar and comfortable is becoming increasingly irrelevant to a world of small wars and MOOTW. The author's critical analysis leads him to propose significant and controversial changes in planning standards, force structure, and defense spending. His thought-provoking analyses, conclusions, and recommendations should fuel further discussion of how America's military can best tackle the strategic uncertainties of the post-Cold War world.
AY 97 Compendium Army After Next Project

Douglas V. Johnson Dr.

These student papers are largely focused on present problems which must be solved before movement toward the future can make much progress. If they are not dramatically futuristic in approach, they are nevertheless set against a future backdrop which is still in the process of being defined. The broader Army After Next program, led by the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, is an experiment, an examination of what could be. The Army War College seeks to play its part through this contribution and by educating those officers who will field, staff, and command our future Army.